A Tough Test: Why the Sudanese Army Must Prevail in the Battle for al-Jazirah?

Recently, questions have arisen about the reasons behind the Rapid Support Forces' atrocities against the people of al-Jazirah, south of the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, amidst ongoing battles with the Sudanese army since April 2023.

On March 29, 2024, dozens were killed and wounded in al-Jazirah during a sudden attack by the Rapid Support Forces on several villages in the state.

The Emergency Lawyers Initiative (ELI) announced in a statement that the Rapid Support Forces "attacked villages in the west and south of al-Jazirah, using live ammunition against isolated civilians," resulting in a significant number of civilian casualties and injuries.

The statement accused the Rapid Support Forces of "committing numerous violations, including sexual assault, forced displacement, as well as looting and plunder."

This led to condemnation from Sudanese political parties and civil society organizations for the crimes committed by the Rapid Support Forces. There have been increasing calls for the military to return to al-Jazirah and liberate it from the militias wreaking havoc there.

The battle for al-Jazirah represents one of the toughest tests for the army led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and poses a major dilemma amid Sudan's complex situation.

Violations and Darkness

On March 30, 2024, the BBC reported that due to the complete communications blackout across the country for about a month and a half, including al-Jazirah, and with total darkness in the networks in many areas of the state, the pace of violations against civilians has increased.

Reports emerged of Rapid Support Forces' attacks on civilians in scattered villages across all regions of al-Jazirah, which largely remain uncovered.

Of note is the incident in the village of Dalwat el-Bahar, which the militias raided after the Taraweeh prayer, taking advantage of people's preoccupation with Ramadan.

They were confronted by five youths under the age of 18, and the attacking force opened fire on them, resulting in the death of one and the injury of the other four.

According to the Hasahisa Resistance Committees of al-Jazirah, the Rapid Support Forces attacked the village of Tanub.

"Although the militias had looted vehicles and all valuable possessions in previous raids, in the latest attack, they stole bread from the bakeries, stocks of crops, household furniture, and everything they could get their hands on," according to the committees' statement.

Widespread anger swept across Sudan following the announcement of the deaths of at least 43 Sudanese civilians during attacks carried out by the militias since the beginning of the blessed month of Ramadan in al-Jazirah, in the central region of the country.

On March 29, 2024, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the militias had attacked 28 villages in al-Jazirah alone, killing 43 civilians and looting the property and food crops of the villages' residents.

It also noted that the forces led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) had detained several humanitarian aid trucks belonging to the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF).

Significant Development

One significant development is the Sudanese Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces' attribution of responsibility for the violations to the Rapid Support Forces.

In a statement, they stated that they had been following the consistent reports revealing widespread violations against civilians in several areas of al-Jazirah State by the Rapid Support Forces and the forces allied with them, followed by the forced displacement of villagers.

The Sudanese Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces (CCDF), known as Taqaddum, stated, "The actions taken in those areas against their civilian inhabitants constitute unacceptable and unjustifiable crimes."

What stands out from the release of this statement is that this particular coordination explicitly accuses the Rapid Support Forces, especially since it is headed by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

CCDF had previously signed a joint declaration with the Rapid Support Forces in January 2024 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, stating the formation of a joint committee to halt and end the war in Sudan. Therefore, the shift of these political forces due to the crimes in al-Jazirah indicates the magnitude and severity of the violations there, making them difficult to ignore.

Military Mobilization

On April 2, 2024, the local website Ultra Sudan reported increasing pressure on the army in light of the violations that occurred in the villages and towns of al-Jazirah by the Rapid Support Forces.

It mentioned that large units of the army were intensively preparing for a ground attack on the region, originating from the states of Sennar and al-Qadarif in the east and south of the country.

Deputy Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council of Sudan, Malik Agar, emphasized the need for preemptive military attacks rather than defense.

Agar addressed officers and soldiers in Sennar, indicating that the army is capable of preserving the Sudanese state. He asserted that he fought alongside the army and signed agreements with them with honor.

He added that the advance of the armed forces to liberate al-Jazirah must be through attack and trench construction with every step forward.

Deputy Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Shams al-Din al-Kabbashi had previously announced on March 25, 2024, that the armed forces would carry out an attack on "rebels" across the country.

Strategic City

The military's preparations to retake al-Jazirah, specifically Wad Madani, carry more significance than mere responses to the violations and crimes committed by the militias there. Viewing the Rapid Support Forces' control over Wad Madani as a passing event in the bloody conflict between them and the army since April 2023 is oversimplified.

After the fall of the strategic city into the hands of the Rapid Support Forces, the U.S.-based Alhurra commented on December 20, 2023, on what it termed as "shifting the conflict equation in Sudan."

It noted that "Wad Madani was a military base from which the Sudanese army launched attacks on the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum, making it a military target."

The analysis relied on reports of Sudanese army leaders and some soldiers fleeing Wad Madani and being pursued in neighboring areas.

The website highlighted the strategic and economic importance of Wad Madani as it connects a vast number of Sudanese states.

It emphasized that being present in Wad Madani means controlling the heart of Sudan. However, the most alarming point is that the Rapid Support Forces did not stop at establishing full control over it.

They formed security forces to protect vital institutions, effectively replacing the Sudanese state governed by the army and establishing a parallel administration.

Although al-Jazirah wasn't the first state to fall into the hands of the Rapid Support Forces, its fall marked a significant point in Sudan's conflict trajectory.

Fragile State

Especially worrisome amidst all this is the imminent threat of war in general and al-Jazirah in particular, which is the collapse of Sudan itself as a state, as highlighted by The Washington Post in a report on December 22, 2023.

The newspaper mentioned that the Sudanese crisis will continue in 2024, pointing out that the devastating civil war, characterized by countless atrocities and reports of war crimes, may indeed lead to the collapse of the fragile state, exacerbating escalating humanitarian crises.

Further, it added that the war for power in Sudan will continue to cast its shadow on deepening social instability and economic pressures, especially in the post-pandemic era and the ensuing famines, which will inevitably lead to increased waves of migration from Sudan to various parts of the world.

Sudanese politician Ibrahim Abdel-Ati commented on the recent events in al-Jazirah and why the military should intervene there in an interview with Al-Estiklal.

"The battle for al-Jazirah is not only a pivotal point for a strategic region, but it's also a battle to assert legitimacy and preserve the essence and continuity of the state itself.

"The military's delay and inability to liberate al-Jazirah and Wad Madani will push more locals to take up arms and defend themselves, which is already happening fundamentally," he added.

"Over time, these forces will morph into uncontrollable armed movements, leading Sudan into a comprehensive civil war that engulfs the state, its regime, army, and people."

Abdel-Ati criticized the Sudanese army for committing an unforgivable strategic mistake by withdrawing from Wad Madani and leaving the state to militias without significant resistance. He likened Wad Madani's fall to Baghdad during the Gulf War.

The Sudanese politician highlighted one of the main reasons driving the army to reclaim al-Jazirah, which is its hosting of Sudan's largest agricultural project, known as the "al-Jazirah Agricultural Project."

This project fell victim to the atrocities of the Rapid Support Forces, which destroyed thousands of acres of agricultural land and crops. Given that it serves as a staple of the people's food supply, regaining control over it is crucial for food security.

Therefore, the army must prepare for its significant battle there, as there is no alternative for Sudan if it wishes to continue reclaiming lost territories, according to Abdel-Ati.