A New Step Towards Disintegration: What Are the Scotland’s Independence Referendum Chances of Success?

The United Kingdom's Supreme Court received on October 11 the case of a fresh referendum on Scotland's independence. The court needs to consider the legality of Scottish requests to hold a new referendum in 2023 on independence without the approval of the London government.

Scotland's First Minister and nationalist government leader Nicola Sturgeon is seeking to organize a new referendum in which voters will answer the question, "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Speaking at the Scottish National Party's annual conference, Sturgeon argued that High Court hearings would not have been necessary if the UK government in Westminster respected Scottish democracy.

But, Westminster does not show such respect, Sturgeon said, adding, this means that the matter would have been done in court sooner or later, and in her opinion, it would be better if it was sooner.

She continued saying that if the court rules in the way Scottish hopes, there will be a referendum on independence on October 19, 2023.

 

Legal Process

High Court hearings will see senior lawyers squabble over the powers of the Parliament of Edinburgh versus Westminster.

The Scottish National Party ran in the Scottish parliamentary elections in 2021 on a promise to hold a legal referendum after the Covid-19 crisis subsided.

Despite the party's will to go ahead with the organization of the referendum, the British government did not give permission, knowing that its approval must be obtained under the Scotland Act 1998.

A referendum on the issue was held in 2014 when 55 percent of Scottish voters chose to remain in the United Kingdom.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss stressed in a televised interview this month that she considers the last referendum in 2014 a once-in-a-generation event. "I am very clear that there should not be another referendum before this generation is over," she said.

The Scottish government is trying to establish its own legal framework to organize another referendum. It highlights that the right to self-determination is fundamental and inalienable.

From its side, the British government stressed that Scotland cannot act unilaterally on an issue regarding the constitutional makeup of the entire United Kingdom, where the London government dominates.

To get around this, the SNP government is seeking to hold an "advisory referendum" to test support for Scottish independence without immediate change.

The UK Supreme Court hears cases of public or constitutional importance that affect the entire population. The two-day hearings began on Tuesday and will be attended by five judges, including Chief Justice Robert Reid, who will issue a ruling in the next six to eight weeks.

The judges are considering the legal validity of the Scottish National Party's referendum bill that sets the referendum date for October 19, 2023.

 

Referendum's Chances

Michael Keating, Professor of Politics at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland, explained to Euronews: "in 2014, Scotland voted 55 percent against and 45 percent for independence. There has been a shift since Brexit because Scotland voted by a large majority to remain in the European Union, so there has been a certain shift of people, who are in favor of staying in Europe, towards independence."

He added: "There's been another movement in the opposite direction, a small number of pro-Brexit people now are against independence, but the big news is there is a strong connection between wanting to be in Europe and wanting to become independent and this means that support for independence is running at about 50 percent," he said.

Opinion polls on voting intentions indicate a split in Scotland between supporters and opponents of independence from the United Kingdom.

The vote in 2014 took place before the Kingdom's exit from the European Union, which most Scottish voters had voted against, before the parliamentary elections in which a majority of pro-independence MPs were elected for the first time, and before the death of Queen Elizabeth II, who was a symbol of continuity.

The popularity of the Scottish National Party, which calls for independence and has been in power since 2007, increased in Scotland after Brexit, as this British province voted by 62 percent to remain in the European Union.

 

Disintegration Path

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, the expert on politics and international relations Zouhair Attouf said: "The two main reasons that explain why Scottish are now more inclined towards independence than in the 2014 referendum are Brexit and UK's conservatives horrible dealing with the consecutive crisis in the UK, compared to their seemingly competent first minister, Nicola Sturgeon."

The researcher explained: "Scotland's autonomy can take many forms of practical independence. Even when Scotland gets independence and no longer stays under the direct control of the UK government, the basic balance of power would actually dictate the 'independent' country's decisions. Supporters of Brexit are discovering the same shocking truth."

An opinion poll showed that half of Britons believe that the UK will not exist as it is in 10 years and will break up.

The poll, conducted by the British company Ipsos Morey, concluded that people's opinions about the future of the United Kingdom changed after the stage of exit from the European Union Brexit.

The survey indicated that the percentage of those who believe that the United Kingdom will not exist in its current state after 10 years has risen to 50 percent from 43 percent in 2014.

It pointed out that the percentage of those who saw the opposite decreased to 29 percent after it was 45 percent in 2014.

Commenting on the October 25-28 poll of 1,000 people over the age of 18, the company's Scotland director, Emily Gray, said Scots were divided over the future of the UK.