How Did the Saudi–Iran Deal Destroy the Plans of ‘Israel’ and the United States?

On March 10, 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced restoring diplomatic relations and reopening the embassies within two months after seven years of break, following talks held in the Chinese capital, Beijing.

A tripartite statement issued by China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia stated that Tehran and Riyadh affirmed respect for the sovereignty of states, non-interference in their internal affairs, and the activation of the security cooperation agreement signed between them in 2001.

Before this sudden Chinese mediation, Iraq hosted, since April 2021, 5 rounds of direct talks at a low level of representation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the last of which was in April 2022; Oman also played a role in this context.

The normalization agreement finally came to jolt both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden, as they were counting on Saudi-Israeli normalization to blockade and isolate Iran.

Netanyahu was counting on the Abraham Accords of normalization with the Gulf and was looking for Saudi Arabia as a major prize in order to besiege Iran. However, the agreement came to undermine his strategy aimed at building a regional alliance that provides legitimacy to impede Tehran’s nuclear program.

Biden was completing the largest blockade around Iran and paving the way for an Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. He sent a political team represented by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and another military team headed by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, to coordinate moves with Arab countries.

 

Political Earthquake

Observers believe that the Saudi move toward restoring diplomatic ties with Iran, finally after its long negotiations with “Israel” and the United States, depends on two things:

The first is Saudi Arabia’s interest in pursuing a nuclear program that America and “Israel” reject, as the kingdom realizes that suppressing the Iranian program, which means the freedom of any country to use peaceful nuclear energy, will be reflected in restricting its program as well, also ensuring that Iran’s program does not harm the kingdom.

The second is Saudi opposition to the Biden administration following the latter’s threats to ignore the kingdom after bin Salman killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Riyadh’s non-compliance with Washington’s demands to reduce oil production, and Saudi support for the Western blockade of Russia in the Ukraine war.

It is clear that the normalization agreement is the result of “mutual interests”: the kingdom wants to end the war in Yemen that “has exhausted the Saudi regime” after realizing that Tehran is the one that supports the Shiite Houthis, so it has resorted to the party that directly controls those “puppets” in Yemen.

On the other hand, the agreement represents an Iranian interest because it undermines Israeli hopes of forming an Arab regional security alliance against Iran, according to the New York Times on March 10.

Analysts say both sides would benefit from de-escalation, as Iran seeks to undermine U.S. efforts to curb its influence in the region, Reuters reported on March 11.

Saudi Arabia is also trying to remove the danger of Iranian proxies’ strikes on its airports and oil refineries and focus on development plans and Vision 2030.

At the regional level, the agreement is expected to have a positive impact on the conflict in Yemen and pave the way for the exit of Saudi forces from there, especially since the kingdom has begun to propose the idea of a comprehensive withdrawal in return for ending the war.

This was clearly indicated by White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, explaining the reason for the agreement implicitly by welcoming any effort to help end the war in Yemen and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East region.

Apparently softening the blow, Kirby told reporters, “The Saudis did keep us informed about these talks that they were having, just as we keep them informed on our engagements, but we weren’t directly involved.”

 

Message to America

It seems that Saudi Arabia’s resort to restoring diplomatic ties with Iran is directly related to its endeavor to develop its peaceful nuclear program, which “Israel” and America do not accept.

Before signing the restoring ties agreement, “Israel” claimed that Saudi Arabia stipulated, in exchange for normalization, that the kingdom would agree to obtain an atomic reactor for civilian purposes.

On March 9, the New York Times said that the Saudi crown prince is seeking to obtain a civilian nuclear program and security guarantees from President Biden, similar to the defense guarantees between NATO countries, as an exorbitant price for the normalization agreement with “Israel.”

The American newspaper stated that the kingdom’s conditions for normalization with “Israel” included, in addition to that, a third request, which is fewer restrictions on arms deals that it purchases from the United States.

U.S. officials have been afraid for some time that Saudi Arabia is trying to build a nuclear project for civilian purposes, and they fear that it would be a first step to obtaining nuclear weapons as a kind of guarantee against their Iranian neighbor and its nuclear project.

The newspaper referred to Biden’s pledges in his election campaign related to the killing of journalist Khashoggi, and Saudi Arabia’s refusal to respond to Biden’s demands to increase oil rates so that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not benefit from high prices to support his war efforts.

Informed sources also told the Wall Street Journal that the kingdom is looking forward to obtaining security guarantees from America and its assistance in its civil nuclear program as a condition for normalizing relations with “Israel,” and for making a decisive decision that could reshape the political situation in the Middle East.

Colonel (res.) Udi Evental, a senior analyst at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya (IDC), said on Twitter that the agreement represents a Saudi message to the United States.

He said: “This is another Saudi finger in the eye of the United States after the OPEC + crisis in October 2022, when Saudi Arabia pressured, in coordination with Russia, to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day, promising Saudi normalization with Iran in response to Washington’s rejection of Riyadh’s demands regarding security guarantees.”

However, what is new in the Saudi position is that the kingdom did not seek major concessions on the Palestinian issue as part of the talks, according to the “Wall Street Journal.”

This was confirmed by two pro-“Israel” delegations from American intellectual institutions after their return from trips to Riyadh in late 2022 when they confirmed that the Saudis do not see the Palestinian issue as of paramount importance.

 

Netanyahu Failed

Experts believe that the Saudi–Iranian surprise deal will have internal repercussions in “Israel” in case conflict escalates.

The New York Times said on March 9 that Netanyahu was seeking normalization with Saudi Arabia to fulfill a long-sought ambition and to advance his political legacy by increasing “Israel” security against arch-enemy Iran, but this has not been achieved.

“The news of a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia on Friday was therefore greeted in Israel with surprise, anxiety, and introspection. It also compounded a sense of national peril set off by profound domestic divisions about the policies of the government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And it seemed to catch Mr. Netanyahu—who has long presented himself as the Israeli leader best qualified to fight Iran and most able to charm Saudi Arabia—off guard,” New York Times.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said on Twitter that: “The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a complete and dangerous failure of the Israeli government’s foreign policy.”

Israeli Major General Amos Gilad wrote about this danger at the Institute for Policy and Strategies (IPS) on March 11, 2023, saying that the internal crisis threatens Israeli strategic strength.

Gilad pointed to a decline in “Israel” ability to deal with these Iranian and Palestinian threats due to Netanyahu’s policies that created an internal conflict.

Another danger that “Israel” fears is that the Iranian agreement with the kingdom will lead to the dismantling of “Israel”–Arab alliances against Iran and then the expansion of Iran’s influence in the region, especially Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and the Middle East in general.

 

Sino–American Conflict

The agreement announced Friday to reestablish Iran–Saudi ties and reopen embassies after seven years was seen as a major diplomatic victory for China, as Gulf Arab states perceive the United States as reducing its presence in the Middle East, according to the Associated Press, on March 11.

Therefore, the first American reaction to China’s role in the Saudi–Iranian normalization was Kirby’s indication that Beijing had hidden goals in its mediation between the two countries.

But the Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China “pursues no selfish interest whatsoever” and opposes geopolitical competition in the region.

China will continue to support Mideast countries in “resolving differences through dialogue and consultation to jointly promote lasting peace and stability,” the spokesperson said.

“We respect the stature of Middle East countries as the masters of this region and oppose geopolitical competition in the Middle East,” said the statement posted on the Foreign Ministry’s website.

Analysts described the deal as evidence that Saudi Arabia has lost faith in the United States as a defender of its security and is drawing closer to China.

The Wall Street Journal reported on March 12 that bin Salman’s concern about losing American support made him hedge his security bets, so he started getting closer to China and strengthening relations with Russia, and now he seeks to restore relations with Iran.

Reuters said on March 11 that the agreement would make officials in Washington very concerned about China’s role in a traditional U.S. sphere of influence.

The news agency quoted former senior U.S. and U.N. official Jeffrey Feltman as saying that China’s role, rather than the reopening of embassies after six years, was the most significant aspect of the agreement.

“This will be interpreted—probably accurately—as a slap at the Biden administration and as evidence that China is the rising power,” said Feltman, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.