A Violent Coup: How Russia Plans to Create a Security Breach on the Edge of Europe

Russia and Moldova have exchanged accusations in the past days, as Chisinau has accused Moscow of masterminding a coup to overthrow its pro-West government, at a time when the Russian Foreign Ministry denied these accusations, accusing Kyiv of trying to prepare Moldova to enter into a confrontation with Russia, warning of the repercussions of this.

Although Moldova officially supports Ukraine, it has not yet provided weapons, nor is it a member of NATO, and it has strived to stay neutral since its independence.

However, the fears that prevailed in Moldova about the ability of this small country with a population of 2.6 million people to defend itself in front of any Russian invasion in the event that Putin decides to do so led it to move a step toward the West and asked to join the EU last summer, like what Georgia and Ukraine did.

It is noteworthy that Moscow has strong papers in Moldova, which includes strong ties with the main socialist opposition and communist in Moldova, according to the BBC.

Until recently, before Maia Sandu arrived at Moldova’s presidency, her predecessor Igor Dodon 2016 to 2020 was documenting his country’s relations with Russia.

 

Violent Coup

Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu has warned of Russian attempts to re-impose her influence on her country and topple the government by resorting to what she described as foreign saboteurs, as The Times newspaper reported on February 13, 2023.

In her statements, Sandu relied on intelligence documents recently received from neighboring Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated last week, saying: “The intelligence service in Kyiv revealed a Russian plan to destroy Moldova.”

“The purpose of these actions is to overthrow the constitutional order, to change the legitimate power from Chisinau to an illegitimate one, which would put our country at the disposal of Russia, in order to stop the European integration process, Sandu said.

President Sandu said the plot would involve protests by the so-called opposition, aiming to overthrow the constitutional order.

She alleged Russia was planning to use saboteurs with military backgrounds, camouflaged in civilian clothes, to undertake violent actions, attacks on state institutions, and taking hostages.

In this regard, the Moldovan president stated that the Russian conspiracy included the arrival of citizens from Russia, Montenegro, Belarus, and Serbia to Moldova.

To confront such a danger, she urged Moldova’s parliament to adopt laws to give the country’s Intelligence and Security Service and prosecutors the necessary means to fight more efficiently against national security threats.

Moldova’s fears were buried with the penetration of a Russian missile in its airfield on its way to a Ukrainian goal during the past days, which put the former Soviet state in the range of hostile fire by virtue of its geographical location and its historical background.

On February 10, 2023, Moldova’s pro-EU Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita submitted her resignation after a year and a half in the position after her government was subjected to tremendous popular pressure due to high inflation, energy crisis, and refugee flow from Ukraine.

Although Dorin Recean, the former Minister of Interior, took over the post of Prime Minister of Moldova last week, nothing in the country is higher than the security fears of a Russian plan to undermine constitutional institutions.

 

Security Threat

These accusations necessitated responses from Russia, whose external denied the validity of the Moldovan and Ukrainian statements regarding the existence of an alleged Russian plan to destabilize Moldova, considering that these statements are unfounded and are based on classic trick techniques, which are often used by the United States, other western countries, and Ukraine.

“The real goal of the Kyiv regime is to prepare Moldova for confrontation with Russia,” the Russian Foreign Ministry statement added.

“We firmly refuse to hint over Russia’s alleged desire to undermine the situation in the Republic of Moldova, and on the contrary from Western and Ukraine, we do not interfere in internal affairs, whether in Moldova or other countries in the world,” Moscow’s statement continued.

The statement stressed that “Russia does not pose a threat to the security of the Republic of Moldova, and supports the development of bilateral cooperation.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry statement also called for Moldova to show the political skill, not to surrender to provocations, as well as to be guided in its work with the interests of citizens, and to understand the advantages that Moldova can bring in the stable friendly relations with Russia.

In this context, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated during a lengthy interview with official media on February 2, 2023, saying: “Moldova can play the role of the next hostile country for Russia because of the personality of its president, Maia Sandu, who is improving towards NATO.”

In turn, a spokesman for the US State Department, Ned Price, told reporters: “We are deeply concerned about the reports that are talking about a conspiracy by Moscow to destabilize Moldova’s government.”

Price stressed that his country is working with the Moldova authorities to confront the remote Russian efforts to undermine democratic institutions in the country.

The United States had warned earlier that Russia might resort to fabricating attacks in neighboring countries, to be an excuse to send more of its forces to the region, while Ukraine warned, in the words of one of the Ukrainian president’s advisers, that Moldova might be the next goal for Putin.

Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, and the Ukraine war exacerbated its economic problems due to the influx of refugees from Ukraine, as well as tensions with Transnistria, a separatist region loyal to Moscow.

In addition, Moldova, which was part of the Soviet Union, relied on Russian gas, and during the past year has suffered from constant power outages in conjunction with Russian forces striking the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

 

Potential Target

In the first week of the war on Ukraine, a video clip spread showing Russian President Vladimir Putin with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and next to them, a map showing Transnistria as a potential target for Russian expansion, but Belarusian officials later confirmed that this was a mistake in the map and was not intended.

Transnistria is a small region located between the eastern bank of the Dniester River and Moldova’s borders with Ukraine. The population of this sector is about 470 thousand people, and the majority of its residents are of Ukrainian and Russian origins.

Although the region is officially and internationally part of Moldova, it is a separatist region supported by Russia and has been under the control of the separatist authorities since 1992, after a conflict broke out between the newly emerging republic in Moldova after the fall of the Soviet Union and the separatists who insisted that they keep preserving the identity of the Soviet territory.

If Putin decides to drag Transnistria into the war with Ukraine in one way or another, its leaders will have no way of refusing to do so because this separatist region is almost completely dependent on Russia economically, in addition to its dependence on Russian gas, which it gets for free.

The number of Russian soldiers in Transnistria is estimated at about 1,500, and they are peacekeepers, as described by the Russian government.

Although Moldova has remained somewhat out of media focus since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian military leaders, including Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia’s central military district, said in April 2022 that his country seeks to control southern Ukraine, which would give it the ability to lay its hand on Transnistria.

It is not yet clear whether the Russian army, embroiled in a complex battle for control of eastern Ukraine, is currently capable of acquiring more territory in southern Ukraine and entering into conflict with Moldova.

Various estimates indicate that the Russians may resort to Transnistria as a point of supply for food, medicine, protection, and securing the railway network, in addition to the possibility of using it as a safe point to re-supply the soldiers with their needs, repair equipment and re-form within the ongoing military operation against Ukraine.

On its part, Kyiv fears that Russian and pro-Kremlin soldiers on Transnistrian soil will be used to prepare an attack on Ukraine from the West.

According to political experts, Russia will tyrannize Moldova and work to include it in its bank of goals, referring to the statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry in early February that there are other targets after Ukraine, including Moldova, and considering it a message to the West that the conflict will not stop.

They also noted that Moldova’s declaration of desire to join NATO is itself one of the reasons for Russia’s dispute with Ukraine, given that Moldova is located between Romania and Ukraine, and Moscow considers its location an extension of Russia’s national security.