Second Mobilization: Will Russia Succeed in Preventing Its Citizens From Fleeing Abroad?

Russian citizens find no choice but to leave their country for fear of reserve recruitment to fight in Ukraine, in addition to the poor economic situation and security restrictions imposed on them.

Russia keeps its second eye on internal affairs to prevent an increase in the number of citizens leaving the country, even by imposing restrictions on Russians who try to flee through strict legislation and laws.

 

Proposed Legislation

With no indications of Moscow's dependence on a diplomatic solution with Kyiv, Russian lawmakers proposed on January 24, 2023, to put restrictions on citizens trying to leave the country.

The head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Transport and Infrastructure Development, Yevgeny Moskvichev, introduced amendments to the transport law that would make it obligatory for citizens and others to pre-book a time and place to cross the border.

It was stated in a copy of the legislative changes, seen by the Russian news agency TASS, that "vehicles belonging to Russian carriers, foreign carriers, citizens of the Russian Federation, foreign citizens, stateless persons, and other road users must reserve the date and time for crossing the state border of the Russian Federation."

If the bill is passed by the State Duma (the Federal Assembly), it will enter into force on March 1, 2023.

This was preceded by the proposal of the Chairman of the Federal Assembly, Vyacheslav Volodin, on January 13, 2023, to confiscate the property of Russians who left the country and criticized the state and its armed forces while abroad.

"Recently, some of our compatriots said it is possible to insult Russia, its population, its soldiers and officers, and openly support the bad guys, the Nazis, and the murderers," said Volodin, 58, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin.

Volodin added that the current legal responses to combat extremism, "re-Nazification" or defamation of the armed forces, which in Russia are punishable by fines and imprisonment, are not sufficient to deal with "unscrupulous" residents abroad.

He continued: "They are abroad, renting real estate and continuing to receive money at the expense of citizens, and at the same time, allowing themselves to pour dirt on Russia, insulting our soldiers and officers, they feel that they will get away with it, and they think that justice cannot reach them."

On the other hand, the official Russian media disdain and disparage the deserters, as it intentionally published on January 18, 2022, the killing of a Russian soldier named Dmitry Perov after he fled from a military unit in the Lipetsk Oblast region to escape the fighting in Ukraine.

After the start of the attack on Ukraine, the Russian president signed amendments providing for a prison sentence of up to 10 years for soldiers who desert or refuse to fight.

 

Big Concerns

Moscow had announced the mobilization of 300,000 reservists on September 21, 2022, to support the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine; this prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave the country to escape recruitment.

According to the non-governmental organization OVD-Info, more than 2,300 people have been arrested during the protests against the military mobilization since its announcement.

These Russian official moves raise fears among citizens that the new changes, if they become effective, may make it difficult for them to leave their country, especially as the economy is exposed to a strong blow. Due to a series of unprecedented Western sanctions, the inflation rate reached 11.9% in December 2022.

The sharp rise in the value of the Russian ruble against the US dollar also led to a rise in the prices of Russian goods.

The partial mobilization order sparked nationwide protests and caused a mass exodus of Russians across borders to neighboring countries, such as Georgia, Finland, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, to avoid conscription.

Remarkably, the exodus included officials working in government offices, according to independent Russian news outlet Verstka Media, which found in late October 2022 that nearly a third of Moscow officials in the mayor's office had fled Russia within a month.

Male employees have left the largest departments, including housing and communal services, health care, education, and information technology professionals, just weeks after government officials quit in droves following the death of a colleague recruited in Ukraine.

 

Lest Fill Again

According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, published in January 2023, Putin may be preparing to announce a "second mobilization campaign", especially since the partial mobilization had backfired as more than 370,000 people fled since the decree was issued.

This number is more than the total number of 300,000 reservists that Russian defense officials have said will be called up.

The Kazakh Minister of Interior said, in a statement on October 4, 2022, that more than 200,000 Russians have come to the neighboring country in Central Asia since the first mobilization was announced.

The increasing isolation is likely to burden those who depend on foreign countries technologically, especially since the promises of alternative Russian products are still limited to the theoretical level.

With many financial experts predicting an economic catastrophe in Russia, there are those who do not want to adapt to heavy Western sanctions on their country and prefer to leave the country.

The marked decline in Russian household spending is also a true indication of how the war and sanctions have affected the lives of people there, especially as state media is promoting news that the sanctions have been a costly failure for the West.

In this regard, Alexander Lanoszka, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Waterloo in Southwestern Ontario, said he does not think that Western sanctions will necessarily force Russia to negotiate, according to his interview with CBC on December 31, 2022.

Widespread sanctions imposed on Russia prompted the removal of major banks from the international transfer system (SWIFT); Russia's central bank was limited in accessing $600 billion in reserves held by foreign banks.

Russia has also been cut off from access to Western technology and supplies, and it is difficult to replace Western brands with local equivalents seamlessly.

That is why senior Russian officials have publicly acknowledged the challenges resulting from the sanctions, which encourage Russians with scientific professions and competencies to look for alternatives to work abroad.

The Russian economy was also affected by the exit of many Western companies, as more than a thousand of them reduced, to varying degrees, commercial activities there.

This decline included companies as diverse as fast-food chains, fashion brands, convenience store retailers, mining companies, and automakers.

Nevertheless, the fear of a second wave of mobilization in Russia remains, which disturbs many young people and employees who wish to stay away from participating in the war.