Richer Countries Are No Exception: Civil Unrest Escalated in More Than Half of the World’s Countries

The world, in general, is destined for more turmoil in the next six months, according to the analysis of the company Verisk Maplecroft, which confirmed that the risk of this crisis will be in 101 out of 198 countries tracked.

The risk of civil unrest has risen this year in more than half of the world's countries, indicating a coming period of increasing global instability fueled by inflation, war, and a shortage of necessities, according to a new analysis published by Business Insider.

101 of the 198 countries tracked on the Civil Unrest Index saw an increase in the risk of civil unrest between the second and third quarters of this year, according to Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk intelligence and advisory firm.

The company also mentioned in its report that only 42 countries experienced a reduction in such risks.

"Although there have been several high-profile and large-scale protests during the first half of 2022, the worst is undoubtedly yet to come," it added.

 

Widespread Crisis

The Verisk index is based on several factors, including inflation levels, how countries respond to dissent, and the extent of the damage civil unrest can wreak on a country's infrastructure.

The report also noted that countries such as Peru, Kenya, and Ecuador have seen resentment appear on their streets due to rising costs.

According to the index, Sri Lanka experienced the largest decline in stability, as mass protests toppled former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July, after the country's worst economic crisis in modern history.

The researchers wrote that some of the countries at most risk of civil unrest are middle-income countries, which had the funds to provide social protection during the Covid-19 pandemic but are now struggling to maintain vital spending for their residents.

As for the richer countries in the European Union, they face the same risks, as expectations indicate a rise in dissatisfaction in Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, and Bosnia and Herzegovina due to the repercussions of the war in Ukraine.

The company stated in its statement that the Russian military operation in Ukraine imposed heavy tariffs on food and fuel prices, and fueled the cost-of-living crisis around the world. However, "the worst effects are yet to come."

 

No Exception

In parallel, a shortage of energy resources in Germany has led to blackouts and skyrocketing prices, with Berlin's top regulator stating that the country must cut gas use so it can later withstand next winter.

The Netherlands, which normally imports 15 percent of its gas from Russia, faces a dilemma over whether to ramp up drilling in the gas-rich Groningen region, risking more devastating earthquakes that have already damaged 26,000 homes.

Inflation is likely to be more noticeable over the next few months and is expected to worsen in 2023, the report said.

There will also be a major factor, according to the report. If temperatures drop to the point where Europe's fall and winter are colder than normal, this will exacerbate the already serious energy and cost of living crisis.

On the other hand, the drought could also lead to higher food prices and trigger protests in the affected countries. Accordingly, the next six months are likely to be more turbulent, the report concludes.

The unrest is an additional burden on Europe's deep-established problems, such as the elder population and climate change.

The conservative published a report entitled Europe is going grey: can EU countries work together to care for their elderly? The report explained that in 1950, only 12% of the European population was 65 years old. Today, this percentage has doubled.

The longevity of the population may be a sign of Europe's health and prosperity, but the region's low fertility rate creates a host of social and financial problems for the continent.

Most importantly, the share of workers who can provide care for the elderly is shrinking, as more and more people need care. This imbalance between supply and demand, which leads to a shortage of medical care providers, is already a formidable challenge for rapidly aging countries such as Germany, Finland, and the United Kingdom.

Projections indicate that in 2050, the proportion of the population over the age of 65 will be more than 36%.

 

Scary Future

According to World Bank data, Belbin pointed out that more than 216 million people are likely to become internally displaced by 2050 in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, East, and South Asia, North Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Susan Elif Belbin, researcher for halting immigration, explained that temperatures in the Mediterranean region are expected to rise by 25 percent over the global average, and that the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate the possibility of a temperature increase of 2 degrees and that this will lead to a significant food shortage in the Mediterranean region. The forest fires and the severity of climatic factors will increase compared to the previous ten years as well.

She stated that the proportion of extremely hot areas that cover less than 1% of the land surface today is expected to increase to 5% by 2070 and that one out of every three people could be forced to migrate due to climatic conditions.

She pointed out that the rains, which have become irregular and unpredictable, and heat waves that have increased in intensity and duration, in addition to drought, have made agriculture difficult today.

Belbin pointed out that the concepts of climate migration and climate refugees are not new, as climate migrations have been observed in nearby geographic areas relatively recently.

She continued by saying that prior to the outbreak of the internal war in Syria and causing the emigration of millions, the drought caused thousands of Syrians to migrate to the cities.

Crop losses also caused high unemployment rates that sparked the Arab Spring revolutions in Egypt and Libya. The greater shortage of food and water, the higher temperatures, resulting in the greater likelihood of climate-related migration waves.