A Noticeable Turn of Military Policy: Europe Is Arming Itself and Increasing Defense Spending

With the aim of strengthening the military presence of the European Union with the return of war to Europe, the bloc’s Foreign and Defense ministers agreed on March 21, 2022, on a new security strategy that includes the formation of a Rapid Reaction Force.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) had predicted that Europe would increase its defense spending, in its report on March 14, and noted a significant growth in the arms trade in the old continent since Russia's annexation of the Crimea.

It is noteworthy that several European countries, including Germany, announced plans to make huge military investments. Has the arms race become inevitable for European countries?

 

EU Autonomy in Defense

On March 21, 2022, the European Union approved a new defense and security plan that includes the formation of a military force of 5,000 fighters and an increase in the military spending budget, during a meeting of the Foreign and Defense ministers of the bloc's member states, to discuss new sanctions against Russia.

The European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, said in a statement: “The European Union will adopt a military strategy that requires preparing a military force of 5,000 fighters, so that it can carry out interventions on its own before 2025.

“The European Union will use fighting groups consisting of land, air and sea units in the future, which was created in 2007 to form the new military force and to carry out interventions to rescue and evacuate European citizens stranded during a conflict,” Borrell added.

“The combat and rapid intervention groups were ready to operate but were never used, due to a lack of political will and financial means,” he noted.

The European Union member states will also commit to significantly increase their defense expenditures and support the European defense industry, including drones, combat systems, tanks, anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems, according to the statement.

The European Union, meanwhile, has been careful—when announcing the formation of the Rapid Reaction Force—to stress that its military efforts are complementary to NATO operations and are not intended to compete with the US-led military alliance as a pillar of Western defense.

It is noteworthy that the defense reform plans in the European continent had witnessed a remarkable momentum in recent times, especially after European countries had trouble managing the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul in August 2021, and the current war in Ukraine.

Although the idea of creating what could be described as the EU's military wing is not new, there was an attempt already twenty years ago, which resulted in the formation of the combat groups in 2007, without those forces participating in any operation whatsoever so far.

In May 2021, the defense ministers of the European Union presented a proposal aimed at formatting a battalion of 5,000 soldiers, backed by ships and warplanes, with the aim of assisting democratic foreign governments that need urgent military support.

Reuters quoted a senior European official as saying that 14 European countries, led by France and Germany, submitted a proposal to format a rapid intervention military force for the purpose of early deployment in international crises, and the proposal was formally discussed during a regular meeting of the Ministers of Foreign and Defense on May 6, 2021.

In turn, the Chairman of the European Union Military Committee, Claudio Graziano, saw that the European Union's combat groups are designed for use in crisis management tasks, not wars.

He admitted that these groups were never used for a number of reasons, according to a report by the American Foreign Policy magazine, on March 20, entitled Is the European Union Army on the way?

Graziano, the former Italian army chief, explained that “EU members had failed to reach consensus on specific issues such as who was supposed to lead the missions, and another complication is that these EU battle groups are not supposed to compete with NATO forces.”

Graziano insisted that the EU's provision of half a billion euros in military aid to Ukraine is a historic event by all accounts, noting that Germany changed its position on sending weapons to Kiev, as well as sending the EU lethal weapons such as the American Javelin and Stinger missiles and others; all of which are indications of Europe's unity in standing up to Moscow in support of Kiev.

Graziano added practical reasons that make the task of formatting a united European army a dream that is closer to reality, most notably, the European Union includes 27 countries, each with its own army and weapons systems, agreeing to unify the systems in and of itself is a nearly impossible task, in his interview with Foreign Policy.

Europe's armies use 180 armaments, which Graziano describes as chaotic and unacceptable, that is why the Europeans set 2025 as a target for the entry into force of the EU's military power.

EU leaders are expected to endorse the security plan, dubbed the Strategic Compass, at a summit to be held on March 24-25 in Brussels.

On the other hand, observers believe that what European countries want is to have a role in regional and international conflicts, after realizing well that its role is weak, and that its political role cannot be strong without the presence of a military and security force that supports European influence.

 

Arms Race

In a separate context, a study issued by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed that arms imports by European countries increased between 2017 and 2021 by 19% compared to the period between 2012 and 2106, and it is a trend that is expected to accelerate as a number of countries on the continent announce the strengthening of armaments to confront new threats.

The institute predicted that European countries would increase their arms imports significantly during the next decade in light of the concerns raised by the Russian war on Ukraine.

It is also scheduled to provide the armies of European countries with warplanes, led by the modern and expensive American F-35, in addition to missiles, artillery and other heavy equipment.

In turn, Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm Institute, considered that “the severe deterioration in relations between the majority of European countries and Russia, was an important driver of growth in European arms imports, especially for countries that cannot meet all their requirements through their national arms industries.”

Siemon Wezeman, who contributes to preparing the Stockholm Institute's annual report, was quoted by Agence France-Presse as saying: “Europe is the new hot spot. We will significantly increase our military spending, we need huge amounts of new weapons.”

He added that “most of these things take some time, and the decision should be taken and orders issued, and then production, so it takes at least a few years.”

He pointed out that “over the past five years, Europe's share in the global arms trade has reached 13%, with the expectation that it will continue to rise significantly, and the largest arms importers in Europe are the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands.”

Despite the opaque nature of many contracts and arms donations, experts estimate the world arms trade turnover at around $100 billion annually, according to Agence France-Presse.

In turn, academic researcher Dr. Radwan Ziadeh explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that: “The reason for the European countries’ arms race at the present time is due to the non-compliance of those countries during the past years with the Charter of Membership in NATO, which stipulates that the member state must spend 2 percent of the annual budget on defense.”

He pointed out that “the US administration during the era of Donald Trump had tried to pressure those European countries in order to increase their defense spending, but to no avail.”

Dr. Ziadeh affirmed, saying: “The war in Ukraine constituted a new European threat that Europe has not witnessed since the Second World War. Therefore, it is now certain that defense spending and the purchase of weapons and military equipment will be increased.”

The researcher pointed out that “the increase in arms revenues to Europe will be at the expense of other matters in the general budget of countries, such as health and education, which will witness a decline at the expense of increasing the budget of the European ministries of defense.”

During an interview on DW on March 17, academic researcher Pierre Louis Reymond noted that “Europe is currently returning to the background of the Cold War, having started a race towards more arms, but armaments today depend on advanced digital technology, which changes the background of the current war that Europe is waging with Russia.”

The United States ranks first in the world in arms exports, achieving a significant increase in its share within 5 years from 32 to 39%, far ahead of Russia, which is followed by France, then Germany and China, according to a report by the SIPRI.

However, the isolation imposed on Moscow as a result of its military attack on Ukraine, and the severe sanctions imposed on its economy, may reflect more on its arms industry.

In turn, France (ranked in third place) followed the example of the United States in working to raise its production of weapons and increased its share significantly during 5 years from about 6% to 11%, respectively.

As for Germany, it has changed its strategic role in resolving crises, seeks to modernize its armed forces, and plans to purchase 35 American F-35 fighter aircraft manufactured by the American company Lockheed Martin, and 15 Eurofighter aircraft, according to a parliamentary source told Reuters on March 14, however, that no final decision has been taken in this regard yet.

Finland also previously ordered 64 F-35A fighter aircraft in a deal worth 8.4 billion euros.

On February 27, Germany said it would boost annual military spending beyond the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP, up from about 1.5 percent last year.

At that time, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that “the German army would receive 100 billion euros from the federal budget for the implementation of investments and armaments projects.”

However, this led to a rise in the shares of defense companies in the United States and Europe, in particular, the shares of companies such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon of the Americas, and Rheinmetall of Germany, and Thales of France, and Leonardo of Italy.

On its part, the German Chancellery confirmed the delivery of 1,000 rocket launchers, 500 Stinger missiles and 14 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, with the possible delivery of 2,700 Strela surface-to-air missiles from the stocks of the East German army.