Will Nicolas Maduro’s Third Term Lead to a New Venezuelan Revolution?

“After Maduro was declared the winner of the election, thousands of opposition supporters took to the streets.”
In a new development that further complicates the political scene in Venezuela, the country's Supreme Court has asked all presidential candidates to begin the process of verifying votes, after the United States recognized the victory of opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez in the July 28 vote, while the country is witnessing escalating protests over the election results.
The Associated Press said that the US government's recognition of Gonzalez as the presidential election winner undermines the results of local electoral authorities that had previously declared President Nicolas Maduro the winner.
But former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said they had received more than two-thirds of the ballots printed by all electronic voting machines after polls closed, and suggested that releasing the data on those numbers would prove Maduro had lost.
In turn, Maduro insisted to reporters that there was a plot against his government and that the electoral system had been hacked, but he gave no details or evidence.
Pressure on the president has been growing, especially since the National Electoral Council, which is loyal to the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, has not released any printed results from the polls as it did in previous elections.
Maduro, whose 2018 re-election was deemed fraudulent by the United States and others, said his country had the most transparent electoral system in the world and warned of a bloodbath if he lost.
Venezuela Election
Venezuela’s National Council has declared President Nicolas Maduro the winner of recent elections, a result that opponents and many foreign governments have derided as unconscionable.
As Maduro’s victory was announced, thousands of protesters took to the streets of the capital, Caracas, and other cities.
The protests, which have sometimes turned violent, have continued over the past week, with security forces responding with tear gas and bullets.
Attorney General Tarek William Saab told reporters that more than 2,000 protesters were arrested in nationwide protests on July 28, adding that one officer was killed.
On July 29, the Venezuela-based human rights group Foro Penal reported that 16 people, including two children, had been killed in election-related unrest.
In his first concession to demands for greater transparency in the election, Maduro has asked the country’s Supreme Court to audit the presidential election, amid domestic and international calls for a detailed vote count.
The Supreme Court is closely allied with Maduro’s government. Federal officials propose the names of its judges and they are confirmed by the National Assembly, which is dominated by Maduro’s supporters, according to the Associated Press.
Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has said vote tallies show Gonzalez received roughly 6.2 million votes compared with 2.7 million for Maduro.
That’s a sharp contrast to the electoral council’s report that Maduro received 5.1 million votes, versus more than 4.4 million for Gonzalez.
In an opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal, Machado said: “We have voted Maduro out. Now it is up to the international community to decide whether to tolerate a demonstrably illegitimate government.”
Meanwhile, Machado and Gonzalez urged their supporters to remain calm and avoid violence.
“I ask Venezuelans to continue their peaceful demand that the result be respected and the ballots be published,” Gonzalez said.
In contrast, Maduro’s closest allies in the ruling party rushed to his defense. National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez said Maduro was the undisputed winner, calling his opponents violent fascists.
He praised the arrests of protesters, saying Machado and Gonzalez should be imprisoned because they are the leaders of this fascist conspiracy trying to impose itself in Venezuela.
An NGO reported that Caracas is holding 305 political prisoners and has arrested 135 people linked to the opposition campaign since January.

International Doubts
A large part of the international community has expressed doubts about the re-election of Nicolas Maduro in a vote that the Venezuelan opposition has rejected, while his traditional allies in Latin America and China have supported him.
Maduro’s close ally, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, joined other foreign leaders in calling on Maduro to release details of the vote results.
Another Maduro ally, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, along with US President Joe Biden, called for the immediate release of complete voting data at polling stations.
The Mexican president also said that his country hopes that the will of the Venezuelan people will be respected and that there will be no violence, adding that his country expects evidence and records of the election results to be presented.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric wrote on X: “The Maduro regime must understand that the results it is publishing are difficult to believe,” stressing that Chile will not recognize any result that cannot be verified.
Argentine right-wing populist President Javier Milei considered that “the Venezuelan people have chosen to end the communist dictatorship of Nicolas Maduro.”
Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chavez Robles also rejected Maduro's victory, describing it as fraudulent, adding that his country would work with democratic governments on the continent and international organizations to respect the will of the Venezuelan people.
Uruguay's foreign minister said his country would never recognize Maduro's victory because of what he called the clear victory of the opposition, while Peru's foreign ministry ordered Venezuelan diplomats in the capital, Lima, to leave the country within 72 hours.
In response, Venezuela announced the withdrawal of its diplomatic staff from seven Latin American countries at the interference of these governments and their questioning of the election results.
Caracas considered the position of the governments of Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay to undermine national sovereignty, calling on its diplomats to leave these countries.
On his part, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said the bloc would not recognize Maduro’s claim of electoral victory without independent verification of the voting records.
In a Spanish-language post on X, Borrell urged Venezuelan authorities to end arrests, repression, and violent rhetoric against opposition members, describing the threats against Gonzalez and Machado as unacceptable.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares Bueno called for full transparency by publishing the results from each polling station separately “so that we could verify the results.”
His Italian counterpart, Antonio Tajani, expressed surprise at the orderly conduct of the election, demanding that the results be verified and documents be seen.
The British Foreign Office said it was concerned by allegations of serious irregularities and called for the full and detailed results to be published quickly and transparently.
The German Foreign Office said it had noted with concern reports of isolated violence in the context of the elections, and also called for the detailed results to be published and for the opposition to have full access to electoral documents.
In contrast, Nicolas Maduro received support from his traditional allies in Latin America: Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras.
China also congratulated Maduro on his re-election as Venezuelan president for a third consecutive term.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also congratulated his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro on winning a third term in the recent controversial elections.

Sharp Deterioration
Venezuela has the world’s largest crude oil reserves and is rich in other natural resources, including natural gas, iron ore, bauxite, and other minerals, most notably gold and diamonds, with 161.22 tons of gold reserves.
Venezuela was once Latin America’s most advanced economy, but it entered a free fall when Maduro, 61, a former bus driver and foreign minister, took office following the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013.
His rule saw the oil-producing nation’s GDP fall by 80% in a decade, forcing more than 7.8 million of the country’s 30 million people to emigrate, the largest exodus in modern Latin American history.
This economic downturn coincided with inflation reaching unprecedented levels, exceeding 300,000% in February 2019, before starting to decline again, according to Refinitiv data.
Venezuela has also seen a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations under Maduro, exacerbated by sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and other countries.
In 2019, Caracas severed diplomatic ties with Washington, particularly after the United States recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as president and imposed sweeping sanctions on the oil sector with the aim of removing Maduro from power.

The Biden administration fears taking steps that would lead to increased waves of migration from Venezuela and risk destabilizing the country.
Florida Republican Representative Maria Salazar warned of a worsening wave of migration from Venezuela to the United States, indicating that up to two million people may leave Venezuela to escape poverty and poor living conditions.
According to many analysts, Venezuela is slowly turning into a real crisis for US foreign policy, after decades of diplomatic disputes, and the failure of a long series of economic sanctions to change the approach of the Venezuelan state.
On his part, journalist Hamza Murad explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that the coming days will be decisive for the future of Venezuela, indicating that the state of uncertainty that accompanied the last presidential elections will continue.
“The possibility of the opposition using violence in the coming period is more likely than ever, because it has reorganized its ranks and become stronger than before, especially since it is supported by most Latin American leaders and the international community,” he added.
Sources
- US recognizes opposition candidate González as the winner of Venezuela’s presidential election
- Masked assailants ransack Venezuela opposition leader's headquarters as post-election tensions mount
- Venezuela election: Maduro declared winner by government-controlled authority
- Venezuela's Maduro declared winner in disputed vote