Why Did Scotland Return to Claim Independence After the Death of Queen Elizabeth?

About a month after the death of Queen Elizabeth II on September 8, 2022, and the ascension of her son Charles III to the throne of Britain, Scotland returned to announce its intention to hold a new referendum to secede from the United Kingdom.

Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon vowed on October 9, 2022, to continue her campaign to leave Britain, even if she loses a High Court case seeking permission to call a new independence referendum.

Sturgeon, who leads the SNP, has said that if her government loses the lawsuit, it will make Britain's next national election a referendum on ending Scotland's three-century union with England.

The Scottish prime minister wants a referendum in October 2023, but Liz Truss's government in London has confirmed that the last referendum in 2014 was a once-in-a-generation event. "I am very clear that there should not be another referendum before this generation is over," she said in early October.

Scots chose to remain in the United Kingdom by 55 percent in the 2014 referendum.

Britain's Supreme Court started hearing arguments on October 11 on whether the semi-autonomous administration of Scotland can organize a vote on independence without the consent of the London government.

 

Reeling Throne

The newspapers of Britain, Scotland, and America see that the hair that connected the British crown and Scotland was cut off by the death of Queen Elizabeth, who the Scots were rejecting the separation of their country from the kingdom for emotional reasons related to the popularity of the late queen.

Scotland and England united politically in 1707, and since 1999 Scotland has had its own parliament and government, and the government there sets its own policies in the areas of public health, education, and other matters, while the government in London controls issues including defense and fiscal policy.

The United Kingdom as a federation consists of four territories: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

If Scotland becomes independent, the kingdom will lose one of the four sides of its historical balance, and this may be encouraging for other regions in the Commonwealth that fall under the British crown for independence, especially Canada and Australia.

British laws provided for the transfer of some powers from London to Edinburgh through the Parliament of Scotland but emphasized that the union of the two countries could only be decided by the Parliament of the United Kingdom.

The laws also stressed that the kingdom's parliament must agree to grant powers to the devolved government in Scotland using the so-called "section 30 order" in cases of secession, as what happened when London agreed to a referendum in 2014, in which the Scots rejected the independence proposal.

So this part may be an obstacle to Prime Minister Sturgeon's attempt to hold a referendum in October 2023, which prompted her to challenge this matter and announce unspecified "plans" for secession if the position of the UK government does not change.

 

Volatile Polls

There is a fluctuation in the Scottish mood towards secession from the British crown, reflected in the opinion poll conducted by more than one think tank, perhaps due to the role of the late queen in emotionally attracting them to stay in the United Kingdom.

In a poll conducted by the British New Statesman website on September 15, 2020, 70 percent of Scots supported secession from the United Kingdom.

A separate poll conducted by the British Future Research Center on May 18, 2022, found that only 45 percent in Scotland wanted to keep the monarchy, compared to six in 10 people across Britain.

The poll showed that more than a third of Scots (36 percent) said the end of Queen Elizabeth II's reign would be a good time to abolish the monarchy and turn Scotland into a republic.

Prior to this, a YouGov poll conducted in April 2017 showed that nearly half of Scotland's voters did not want a referendum on independence after Scotland formally requested Britain to hold a referendum on its secession in late March 2017.

According to the poll published by The Time on April 29, 2017, 49 percent of Scots opposed holding the referendum proposed at the time by the Prime Minister, while 37 percent supported holding the referendum, and 14 percent were undecided.

But Britain's secession from the European Union, which was rejected by the majority of Scots, came to increase the historical calls for secession, as the ruling National Party wanted independence of Scotland to join the European Union as an independent country.

But after the Brexit agreement, according to which Britain withdrew from the European Union on March 29, 2019, which was approved by 52 percent of Britons and rejected by 62 percent of Scots, the Scottish Prime Minister tried to organize a new referendum for self-determination.

However, 62 percent of Scots supported staying in the kingdom, and 38 percent rejected the call for independence, the BBC reported on October 10, 2022.

As the Scottish desire to return to the European bloc increased, the popularity of nationalists in Scotland increased, which was reflected in the last elections that took place in May 2021, in which the Scottish National Party strengthened its seats in parliament and achieved victory for the fourth time in a row.

Prime Minister Sturgeon's Scottish National Party won 64 seats in the election, less than an absolute majority of one seat.

Sturgeon's allies of the pro-independence Green Party also won eight seats, giving her dominance over Scotland's politics.

 

Charles and Scotland

Since Charles III became king, the British have been wondering: Will the throne of Britain collapse under his mandate, especially in light of the Scottish National Party's calls for secession, which were only repelled by the charisma and strength of the late queen's personality?

The new king encouraged independence, unlike his mother, the late queen, when he repeatedly declared that all people have the right to choose their own destiny and that he does not mind the secession of any of the countries affiliated with the British crown, provided that this is done in a befitting and calm manner and that he does not want conflicts to occur.

Anyone who has followed Scottish politics for the past 30 years is well aware that the death of the queen may be the end of the British Union, said Alan MacDonald, professor of Scottish history at the University of Dundee.

The American Time magazine on September 9, 2022, explained that tensions between the English crown and Scottish nationalism have existed for a long time, and the motives for independence are now more urgent due to the confusion of the London government and its costly withdrawal from the European Union, which the Scots voted against by an overwhelming majority in 2016.

King Charles III tried to play the emotional chord with Scotland like his mother and made sure during the funeral of Queen Elizabeth in Scotland to wear the traditional Scottish shirt.

Yet, Time magazine sees it as a royal PR ploy to win the Scots' approval to remain in the British crown.

It predicted that, with Charles III's accession to the throne, Scotland's relationship with the British crown would enter an unknown turn, different from how the royal family had skillfully dealt with Scotland in recent centuries.

The arrival of King Charles to the throne was certainly a boost to the independence movement because he doesn't enjoy the same queen's worldwide popularity, one prominent independence advocate told Time magazine on condition of anonymity.

Clive Irving, author of the unofficial biography of Elizabeth II, the last queen, describes Charles III as a fake Scotsman who wears Scottish clothes but never looks like a homeowner.

However, the Scotchman website stressed on September 19, 2022, that King Charles III's relationship with Scotland is in his DNA, as he is directly descended from James VI, King of Scotland, through his grandfather, King George VI.