To Counter Wagner’s Influence: How Does U.S. Intelligence Intervene in North Africa?

The conflict in Sudan that has been raging since mid-April is threatening to expand the activity of the Russian mercenary group Wagner.

Western media have been circulating intelligence reports about Wagner’s intervention in the conflict from its bases in Libya, in favor of one of the parties to the fighting without the other.

In response to this reality, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is seeking to combat the expansion of the activity of the mercenary group close to the Kremlin.

This is a “favored strategy,” as Politico put it, that relies on gaining allies on the continent based on sharing intelligence reports with the leaders of those allied countries.

 

Sharing Intelligence

The United States has recently shared intelligence with African officials regarding the Wagner Group’s alleged plan to assassinate the president of Chad and its attempts to access and control key natural resource extraction sites in countries such as Sudan and the Central African Republic.

The U.S. hopes to highlight for African officials how working with Wagner is likely to sow chaos in the long term, despite its promises to bring peace and security to countries facing political turmoil and violence.

The sharing of intelligence on Wagner highlights how the standoff between the U.S. and Russia extends beyond the battlefield in Ukraine to Africa, where Biden officials say Russia is using Wagner as a proxy to strike deals and help make inroads on behalf of the Kremlin.

It underscores the degree to which the Biden administration believes Wagner—and the Kremlin—pose a long-term threat to U.S. interests on the continent.

The Wagner Group is increasingly involved in countries across Central Africa as a security and propaganda force, protecting and promoting local political leaders.

They ally with embattled leaders and militia commanders who can pay for their services in exchange for military force with commercial and strategic interests.

Wagner’s actions, especially the reported targeting of civilians and other noncombatants, are destabilizing the Sahel, driving local populations into the arms of extremists and helping affiliates.

 

Biden’s ‘Favored’ Strategy

Wagner’s atrocities in Ukraine, including its brutality in the eastern city of Bakhmut and its purchasing of weapons from North Korea, have been a topic of discussion among officials this spring.

Historically, the U.S. has fostered a careful approach to divulging intelligence in an effort to protect sources and methods, but the current intelligence-sharing on Wagner is widespread and includes countries where the U.S. does not traditionally hold robust relations in the intelligence arena.

The administration is using the intelligence-sharing strategy as a way of highlighting how Wagner’s presence in some countries is bad for business and could disrupt the flow of trade and investment.

The idea is that if Wagner is seen as disrupting trade and investment, it could drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow—an alliance that has only strengthened in recent months and continues to concern Washington.

Washington has urged officials in countries not to partner with Wagner not only because of the potential long-term security concerns it could present the U.S. but also because of the impact that the paramilitary group’s actions in Africa could have on the battlefield in Ukraine.

According to Politico, the Biden administration is pursuing a “favored strategy” to counter the expansion of Wagner mercenaries’ influence on the African continent by sharing sensitive intelligence with allies there.

The goal is to discourage those countries from partnering with the Russian group. This strategy is identical to what Washington did with Kyiv prior to the launch of the Russian offensive on February 24, 2022, as it informed it in advance of the details of Moscow’s mobilization of military formations on its borders.

 

Wagner Expansion

Wagner has a foothold in at least five African countries: Libya, Mozambique, Central African Republic, Mali, and Sudan.

Even before the recent fighting, it was reported to be running a number of gold mines in Sudan.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the group is present in more than 10 African countries including Madagascar, South Sudan, Botswana, Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Congo-Brazzaville, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe.

The All Eyes on Wagner research group revealed that Wagner is intervening extensively in Burkina Faso by directing public opinion through social media to rally support for the group’s activities and Russia.

Russian mercenaries from Wagner have been operating in Africa with little scrutiny and have made civilian populations their main target. An investigative report says that Russian operatives in the Central African Republic who had been billed as unarmed advisers are driving war crimes in Africa.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently addressed the issue of the mercenary group at a press conference at the United Nations. He said: “The Central African Republic and Mali as well as Sudan and a number of other countries whose governments, legitimate authorities turn to such services [from the Wagner Group], they have the right to do so, let’s not forget.”

Last February, the European Union announced new sanctions against Russia’s Wagner Group for the “seriousness of its activities” and for its human rights violations in Central Africa, Sudan, and Mali.

In 2021, 11 individuals and 7 entities linked to the paramilitary group were added to the asset freeze and travel ban list. In 2021, the European Union imposed sanctions on the group, which is also fighting alongside the Russian military in Ukraine.

A statement from the European Council said the latest sanctions were imposed “in view of the international dimension of the group and the gravity of its activities, as well as its destabilizing impact on the countries in which it operates."