The Worst Tensions Since October 7: Where Are Turkiye-'Israel' Relations Headed?

Turkiye-”Israel” relations are experiencing their worst episode of tension since the Israeli aggression on Gaza began on October 7, 2023.

For months, most observers criticized Turkiye’s weak stance on the ongoing genocide until Ankara took its first serious step in early May 2024 by severing all trade relations with Tel Aviv.

However, tensions between the two sides escalated to an unprecedented level following the Israeli Occupation’s assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on July 31.

Indicators of Escalation 

One sign of solidarity with Hamas and Gaza was the scale of official and public participation in Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar and the statements that followed the assassination.

Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, President of the Turkish Grand National Assembly Numan Kurtulmus, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and Director of the National Intelligence Organization Ibrahim Kalin attended Haniyeh’s funeral.

Several party leaders also participated, including Future Party leader Ahmet Davutoglu, New Welfare Party leader Fatih Erbakan, and Great Unity Party leader Mustafa Destici.

On August 2, the Turkish Embassy in Tel Aviv and its Consulate in Jerusalem lowered their flags to half-mast in mourning for Haniyeh's assassination, prompting the Israeli Foreign Ministry to summon the Turkish deputy ambassador for a reprimand.

The following day, an Israeli activist used a drone to raise the Israeli flag above the Turkish embassy. Despite the arrival of Israeli police, the perpetrator was not arrested.

Verbally, on July 31, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the assassination as “treacherous and despicable,” asserting that it targets the Palestinian cause and resistance in Gaza, aiming to demoralize and intimidate Palestinians.

Other Turkish officials and party leaders also issued statements condemning the assassination and calling for an end to “Israeli terrorism.”

Following the release of official Turkish statements condemning Haniyeh’s assassination, Instagram removed these posts, leading Turkiye to block the app within the country.

In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz commented on the situation, attempting to create a rift between Erdogan and opposition Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, but received a strong rebuttal from the latter.

Katz tweeted, tagging Imamoglu, saying, “In contrast to the stance of the entire free world, Erdogan is turning his country into a dictatorship that only supports the killers and rapists of Hamas and blocks Instagram, which is used by 57 million users in Turkiye.”

“Erdogan is destroying a country with scientific, cultural, technological, and economic capabilities, and eradicating the legacy of [modern republic founder Mustafa Kemal] Ataturk, who built a progressive and prosperous Turkiye.”

Imamoglu responded, saying, “This statement insults the flag of the Turkish Republic and its president. We will not learn democracy and the rule of law from someone whose hands are stained with the blood of tens of thousands of children. Everything will be alright when Palestine is freed.”

Hakan Fidan responded to his Israeli counterpart, stating, "Instead of being a foreign minister, Israel Katz continually makes our country and our president the subject of his delusions. This person, whose presence in the government is marked by obsession with slander and lies, is a monument to the arrogance and audacity of [Benjamin] Netanyahu's murderous government."

As part of ongoing Turkish official efforts, Fidan visited the Rafah border crossing from the Egyptian side on August 4, 2024, and conducted an inspection there, urging the Islamic world to unite to save the people of Gaza.

This was the first official visit to the area since the Israeli forces took control of the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi Route along the Egypt-Gaza border.

From there, Fidan emphasized the need to increase pressure on “Israel” to halt the genocide being perpetrated in Gaza.

"Western countries, particularly the United States, must break their silence; otherwise, they will continue to be complicit in this genocide," he said.

The day after his visit, Hakan Fidan stated from Egypt, "The region cannot endure further provocations. Those who control Israel must hold its leash," likening the Israeli Occupation entity to "dogs" that need to be restrained.

The tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv has escalated beyond bilateral relations, reaching the halls of NATO, of which Turkiye is a prominent member.

On July 29, the Israeli Foreign Minister called on Western countries to expel Turkiye from the alliance following Erdogan's statements about Turkiye's ability to invade “Israel.”

“In light of Turkish President Erdogan's threats to invade Israel and his dangerous rhetoric, Foreign Minister Israel Katz instructed diplomats … to urgently engage with all NATO members, calling for the condemnation of Turkiye and demanding its expulsion from the regional alliance,” the Israeli foreign ministry read according to media reports.

On July 28, Erdogan asserted that Turkiye could "enter Israel" in the same manner it had previously entered Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) and Libya, emphasizing that "there is nothing we cannot do." He believes that the Turks "only need to be strong enough to take such steps."

In response, Katz threatened that Erdogan might face the same fate as former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who was overthrown by the West and executed by the United States.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry responded to Katz’s remarks by stating, “The end of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has committed genocide in Gaza, will be like that of the Nazi Adolf Hitler, who also committed genocide.”

Earlier, Erdogan described Netanyahu as "mentally disturbed" and a "bloodsucker." Turkiye also announced its intention to join South Africa's genocide case against “Israel” at the International Court of Justice.

Regarding NATO, Reuters reported on August 1 that Turkiye has been blocking cooperation between “Israel” and NATO since October 2023 due to the Israeli aggression on Gaza.

During this period, Turkiye has maintained its stance that the alliance should not collaborate with “Israel” as a partner until the war ends.

“Israel” enjoys a partner status with NATO and strengthens its close ties with the military alliance and some of its members, especially its largest ally, the United States.

Sources indicated that Turkiye has opposed all NATO dealings with “Israel” since October, including meetings and joint exercises, viewing Israeli crimes against Palestinians in Gaza as a violation of NATO’s foundational principles.

Turkiye will continue this blockade and prevent “Israel” from further or enhanced interaction with NATO until the war ends, believing that Tel Aviv’s aggression in Gaza breaches international law and global human rights standards.

Historical and Future Relations

Turkiye was among the first countries to recognize what is now “Israel,” being the first in the Muslim world to do so.

It officially recognized “Israel” on March 28, 1949, less than a year after its establishment on May 14, 1948.

Turkiye built its relationship with “Israel” on mutual interests. Madrid Conference of 1991 and the signing of the Oslo Accords between “Israel” and the Palestine Liberation Organization in September 1993 facilitated closer ties between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

In February 1996, relations reached their peak with the signing of the Military Training and Cooperation Agreement (MTCA), which outlined collaboration between all branches of the Turkish and Israeli armed forces.

A second agreement in the field of defense industry, research and development, and technology transfer was signed.

These agreements included provisions for strategic dialogue, mutual visits, military knowledge transfer, and intelligence cooperation.

However, relations soured after the 2008-2009 Gaza conflict and hit a low point following the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010, leading to the end of military partnership.

At the same time, Ankara’s relations with Hamas significantly improved, with Turkiye beginning to host members of its leadership.

The rapprochement resumed in 2020 due to Ankara’s increasing regional and international diplomatic isolation and economic decline, particularly amid deteriorating relations with the United States, Gulf states, and Egypt.

The formalization of this process came after Israeli President Isaac Herzog's visit to Turkiye in 2022, reaching a peak with a meeting between Netanyahu and Erdogan on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2023.

However, everything changed a month later with the onset of Operation al-Aqsa Flood on October 7. Erdogan refused to condemn Hamas, calling it a national liberation movement, and intensified his attacks on “Israel.”

After months of verbal escalation, Turkiye suspended all bilateral trade with “Israel” in May until the end of the Gaza conflict and the uninterrupted flow of aid.

This step came despite bilateral trade surviving numerous diplomatic storms over the years, with its value reaching billions of dollars annually, marking a new and significant phase of deterioration.

Regarding the future of relations, the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies suggests that given Erdogan’s unpredictable foreign policy and the diverging interests of the two sides, a return to the military cooperation seen in the 1990s is unlikely.

However, a study published on April 11, 2024, noted that a complete collapse of relations is equally unrealistic given the economic and commercial circumstances, but such a possibility should not be entirely ruled out.

It pointed out that due to this negative trajectory and Erdogan’s historical fluctuations, a permanent rapprochement in the foreseeable future seems unlikely, and further deterioration is probable.

Nimrod Goren, Israeli affairs expert at the Middle East Institute, said the recent move was a “game changer.”

“One of the unique characteristics of the relations was every time there was political tension, the economic relations managed to continue. Now it’s a big-time change in the nature of relations,” he told VOA in an interview via Skype.

Gallia Lindenstrauss, from the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, is worried that diplomatic relations might also be in danger.

Likening the trade component to “oxygen” for the bilateral ties, she said, “Trade was in a way an insurance policy for the relations. When you take out trade, you are not left with a lot.”

Conversely, the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune (Israeli-American) magazine, despite the tension, believes Erdogan generally follows a deal-based foreign policy, suggesting that if interests are realigned, he could once again restore strong relations with “Israel.”

In contrast to previous views, the magazine’s May 2024 article suggests reasons for optimism about the future of “Israel”-Turkiye relations.

It highlighted that “Israel” and Turkiye share interests in the Caucasus region, supporting (Ilham) Aliyev’s regime in Azerbaijan.

“Israel” supplied at least 60 percent of Baku’s weapons until 2020 and continued this in 2023, aiding its recovery of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to the same source.

In response, Erdogan has not commented much on Israeli-Azerbaijani relations and remains silent on the issue, indicating, according to the magazine, that Turkiye’s strongman does not entirely rule out the possibility of another shift in his relations with the Jewish state, according to its assessment.