Syrian Crisis Resolved: How Turkiye's Opposition Agenda Was Exposed

The fall of the former head of the Syrian regime Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the end of the Ba'ath Party’s rule in Syria on December 8, 2024, marked a pivotal moment in the region’s history when opposition forces entered the capital, Damascus.

This collapse had significant regional and international consequences, particularly for neighboring Turkiye, which had been deeply affected by the Syrian crisis in various ways.

Over the past years, Turkish opposition parties, especially the Republican People's Party (CHP), capitalized on the issue of Syrian refugees, making hatred and racism toward them central to their political agenda and rhetoric. They blamed the refugees for many of the domestic failures and crises in Turkiye.

In one instance, on September 6, 2023, opposition Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu accused Syrian immigrants of being responsible for the city’s “water shortage.”

The mayor of Bolu, Tanju Ozcan, also from the CHP, proposed imposing a 10-fold increase in water bills for Syrians living in the city.

During the 2023 presidential elections, opposition candidate and former CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu campaigned with the slogan “The Syrians will leave.”

Political Tension 

One of the sharpest political clashes between the Turkish government and opposition over the issue of Syrians occurred on September 19, 2024, between Bilal Erdogan, son of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and CHP leader Ozgur Ozel.

Bilal was addressing a group of young people at a youth camp during the International Traditional Sports Festival when he mentioned that crime rates among Syrian refugees were lower than those among Turkish citizens.

He explained that the lower crime rates were due to refugees being more cautious about engaging in illegal activities, as committing any crime could lead to their deportation.

As an economist, he added, “I can confirm that countries usually achieve medium-term economic benefits from the presence of refugees, as long as matters are managed properly.”

He further accused certain groups of “exploiting the refugee issue to stir up division,” saying, “There are people trying to divide and sow hatred among people for political gains.”

In response, Ozel immediately fired back during a rally for his supporters in Balikesir, saying, “Mr. Bilal claims that he doesn't accept accusations against Syrians for causing the rise in crime in Turkiye and insists that their crime rates are lower than those of Turks, as if he wants to keep them here.”

Ozel then became more heated, declaring, “I ask Bilal Erdogan: what’s the wisdom in praising Syrians as cheap labor while our youth suffer from unemployment? Mr. Bilal, if Syrians are to stay, we will begin by getting rid of your father’s government first, and then we’ll send the Syrians back to their homeland.”

This exchange, widely covered by local media, occurred just two months before Syria was liberated.

The Opposition's Dilemma

After the resolution of the Syrian crisis, the political discourse between the government and the opposition in Turkiye shifted dramatically.

Interestingly, on December 27, 2024, from the same city of Balikesir, President Erdogan responded during an AKP conference to Ozel’s threats and warnings.

“Our people taught a lesson to those who thought they could reach power through racism and hatred against refugees,” he said.

“It was the Assad regime in Syria that fell, and the mourning ceremonies are currently being held at the headquarters of the Turkish opposition parties. If it weren't for their embarrassment, they would have played funeral songs for the fall of Assad. Do you know why?”

“Because our opposition enters elections without any real projects, and all their proposals were based on hostility toward foreigners and Syrian refugees,” Erdogan added.

“They are now terrified of the situation stabilizing in Syria and the return of refugees to their country.”

“This would strip them of the only political leverage they have used in every election and every confrontation. This teaches us that no matter the pressure, you must stand firm in your position, and you will ultimately reap the rewards,” the Turkish president concluded.

“Had the opposition taken power in the last elections, no one would be knocking on Ankara’s door today, and no one would care about it. We would have remained in the corner, watching events unfold around us, and eventually, we would have been forgotten.”

The Opposition's Predicament

The changes in Syria have led to noticeable shifts within Turkiye's main opposition parties, with the first signs of internal conflict beginning to emerge.

This is especially evident within the Nation Alliance, or the Table of Six, which was formed by six parties that opposed Erdogan's People's Alliance in the elections.

On December 21, 2024, Ahmet Davutoglu, leader of the opposition Future Party, former prime minister, and one of the members of the Table of Six, took to the X platform to say, “The newly appointed Governor of Aleppo is Azzam al-Gharib, a graduate of Bingol University.”

“Will the provocative politicians who wanted to expel them [referring to Syrians] from universities, cut off their water supplies, and deport them by bus across the border, now apologize?”

“Anyway, let them visit Aleppo and drink Turkish coffee from the governor, who will greet them in beautiful Turkish.”

“They should know that this coffee will be a symbol of memory and brotherhood that will last not forty years, but forty centuries,” Davutoglu concluded.

On December 31, 2024, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that about 35,000 Syrian refugees had left Turkiye to return to their homeland since the fall of Assad.

“This means that the number of people who left Turkiye since the beginning of December is equivalent to the number who would normally leave in three months,” he told NTV.

Fall of Masks!

Turkish journalist Huseyin Likoglu wrote an article for Turk Press on December 29, 2024, about the opposition's shock following the fall of Assad's regime.

“The regime has fallen in Syria, and the masks have fallen in Turkiye. While the disguised thugs in Turkiye were targeting the Syrian refugees who had been forced to flee, they were applauding the Iran-backed regime that was committing massacres,” he said.

“They kept saying that Syrians should go and fight for their country, and now the Syrian opposition has succeeded, after 13 years of resistance, in toppling the authoritarian regime.”

“The opposition they urged to fight has resisted and liberated its country. Meanwhile, the thugs [referring to the Turkish opposition], whose masks have fallen, have begun to openly support the remnants of the Syrian regime.”

“They are currently spreading lies, claiming that Alawites are being killed in Syria,” Likoglu added.

“If they could, they would have brought Bashar al-Assad from Moscow and reinstated him in power in Syria.”

On January 2, 2025, the Institute for Area Studies, Social Sciences University of Ankara published the first public opinion poll of the new year. The survey, conducted with 1,500 participants, revealed how they felt about the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) policy toward Syria.

The poll asked participants, “Do you find the Justice and Development Party's Syria policy successful?”

A striking 77.4% of respondents rated the AKP's Syria policy as “very successful” or “successful,” while 59.6% predicted that Assad's fall would bring a “very good” or “good” impact to Turkiye.