Succession Under Khamenei, Mossad's Role, and Iran's Future: Sensitive Issues Unveiled by Raisi Death

After a full 12 hours of searching and the official announcement of the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and other officials in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border on May 20, 2024, the toughest questions began to emerge.

Among the most prominent questions: Were the Iranian president and his entourage killed, and by whom? Was it “Israel”? Was it a missile in the region of the Iranian–Azerbaijani border, rife with Mossad activity, or a cyber disruption operation, or was it simply fate and bad weather?

Did the suspicious aircraft crash and the arrival of two other planes to Iran, which were guarding it peacefully, result from an internal struggle within the regime factions?

Of utmost importance is the fate of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's successor, the ailing leader whom Western reports suggest is nearing death. Who will be his successor after all fingers were pointing to the slain President Raisi as a possible heir? Will the conflict between contenders for Khamenei's legacy be renewed, along with other complex questions that require time for answers?

Ebrahim Raisi (64 years old) was Iran's eighth president, elected in 2021 to succeed Hassan Rouhani. He temporarily assumed the presidency, with his deputy Mohammad Mokhber, a close confidant of the Supreme Leader, until presidential elections could be organized within 50 days, as stipulated by the constitution.

Interrelated Issues

The killings of Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian raise four issues. Firstly, was it a deliberate targeting or assassination operation, and who might be behind it if this assumption holds true?

Secondly, will there be a power struggle among the different factions for the position of Supreme Leader after Khamenei's death, especially since Raisi was almost the sole candidate for the position?

Thirdly, is there a role for “Israel,” especially since the president's helicopter and senior officials crashed on their return from Azerbaijan, near areas bordering Iran that have often witnessed Israeli intelligence and sabotage operations against Iran?

Fourthly, the incident represented a shock and failure for Iranians because it took a full 12 hours to locate the head of state and his entourage, with a Turkish drone, beyond Iran's capabilities, revealing the “extent of decay in the official state structure.”

On May 20, Anadolu Agency stated that the Turkish drone Akinci managed to identify the heat source from the wreckage of the helicopter carrying the Iranian President and his accompanying delegation in northwest Iran.

Many Possibilities 

The fall of the Iranian president and his entourage, while the rest of the convoy was unharmed, raises the question: was the incident orchestrated by internal or external parties? In other words, was the crash the result of an Israeli cyberattack or an internal settling of scores?

Numerous possibilities have circulated suggesting the targeting and assassination of the Iranian president, considering several factors. One such scenario suggests that the convoy consisted of three helicopters, of which only the president's aircraft crashed and was destroyed, which excludes weather as the cause and raises questions about how the other two aircraft safely landed without encountering the same problem.

This scenario draws parallels with the mysterious downing of the Russian Wagner Group commander's aircraft, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on August 23, 2023, amidst a conflict with President Vladimir Putin, an act considered an "assassination" by experts.

This scenario suggests the involvement of internal forces, indicating intense disputes between factions regarding the future of governance, succession after Khamenei (85 years old), and a struggle for control over institutions and the economy in Iran, with Raisi being part of this conflict and a potential candidate for the current Supreme Leader's succession.

Here, the name of Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, emerges strongly as he vigorously seeks to assume his father's position after his death, along with supporters of the former president Rafsanjani, like his advisor, Gholam Ali Rashid, who told Ensafnews on June 9, 2018, that Rafsanjani's death "was not due to natural causes.”

Six days before Raisi's assassination, Financial Times published a lengthy investigation on May 14, confirming him as the leading candidate for Khamenei's succession at the time of his death, with Khamenei's son Mojtaba as the second candidate.

The article mentioned that within exclusive circles, two names had long been discussed as possible candidates to become the Supreme Leader: Raisi, who stood out among his peers for his unconditional loyalty to Khamenei and his refusal to challenge the Revolutionary Guard in their regional policies, especially during the Israeli aggression on Gaza since October 7, 2024.

Many considered him Khamenei's chosen successor after his victory in the 2021 elections, where prominent conservatives and reformists were prevented from running.

Another name that has been discussed as a possible successor is Mojtaba (54 years old), but he does not enjoy widespread popularity and has become a target for protesters since the unrest that erupted in 2009 following the reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

During those protests, demonstrators alleged that the elections were rigged against the reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi to pave the way for Mojtaba to succeed his father.

"Assassination of Raisi" may also be a plausible scenario involving external forces, possibly linked to the events in Gaza and the escalation with the Israeli Occupation, with “Israel” targeting several Iranian officials in different regions. 

In this particular operation, if Israeli Occupation’s involvement is confirmed, it is likely that the U.S. was also involved to strike at the Iranian axis supporting Gaza. It is hard to imagine “Israel” being behind Ebrahim Raisi's assassination, if it was indeed an intended killing, without a green light and high-level technical and logistical support from the U.S.

Some unofficial Revolutionary Guard pages have circulated assassination scenarios and implicitly blamed America and “Israel.”

The "China in Arabic" account on X reported on May 19 that on the same day the Iranian president's plane crashed, a C-17 aircraft belonging to the U.S. Air Force was spotted in Azerbaijan and headed towards Israeli airspace.

"This is the first time such a flight has been made since a year ago and coincides with the incident of the Iranian president's helicopter disappearance."

The crash of the Iranian president's helicopter, while the other two helicopters in the convoy arrived safely, has sparked speculation of a significant and severe security incident, raising the possibility of an assassination attempt on the presidential aircraft.

The survival of the two accompanying helicopters raises questions since helicopters used for high-ranking officials can transmit their exact location in the event of an accident, according to Iranian newspapers.

However, an explosion might have disabled all onboard systems, including the emergency system, as reported by Iranian media, which mentioned the deactivation of tracking systems on the destroyed helicopter, suggesting causes other than a simple crash or explosion.

Other scenarios suggest a bomb might have detonated inside the helicopter, pilot error, or poor visibility due to difficult weather conditions. Alternatively, the helicopter might have collided with a rock or a mountain peak, leading to a sudden and complete destruction.

Questions arise as to why Raisi's helicopter specifically was targeted. Was it due to the rugged terrain and difficulty for a regular aircraft to land, or were there other mysterious reasons?

Israeli Involvement

Contrary to the above, analysts affirm that the region where the presidential plane fell or was shot down is close to the Azerbaijani border, an area where Mossad is active with Jewish Azerbaijanis, a large minority, and Tehran has previously accused Mossad agents of conducting activities in this area.

This scenario is also plausible given Azerbaijan's relations with “Israel” (they raised Israeli flags when they defeated Armenia in 2023, even though Turkiye provided them with strong support), and Israeli Occupation’s use of the border area in attacks on Iran. Its involvement is not ruled out.

Intelligence leaks from Azerbaijani officials allied with “Israel” regarding the flight path of the helicopter cannot be ruled out, aiming to target it either through an explosion, a cyberattack — an area in which “Israel” excels and has used repeatedly against Iran — or other unknown methods.

It is well known that East Azerbaijan province, where the Iranian president's plane crashed, has Mossad activity across the border with Azerbaijan, and it is strongly possible to target Raisi's plane in this area with a surface-to-air missile or another method.

The Iranian president was returning from the opening of the Giz Galasi Dam near the border with Azerbaijan, accompanied by his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev on the border between the two countries, and his plane crashed during his return.

However, Jordanian military expert and analyst Ayman Maqableh ruled out any American or Israeli hand in the incident of the Iranian president's helicopter crash.

He confirmed to Quds News Network in London on May 19 that if a missile were fired at the plane, the early warning system in both Iran and Azerbaijan would work, and that would be evident.

If there is intentional sabotage of tracking systems, it requires investigation by experts who can determine whether the plane was hit by a missile or crashed due to natural conditions after finding its wreckage.

He said that the helicopter carrying the Iranian president is Russian-made (MI) and is somewhat old and unreliable in difficult weather conditions.

Maqableh pointed out that he served in areas very close to the area where the helicopter crashed, and knows its conditions well, adding that the mountains in the area are towering and are often covered in fog, making the pilot surprised at the opposite mountain peaks.

He explained that radar jamming cannot be carried out on the helicopter in these areas, noting that weather conditions are sufficient for jamming.

He speculated that the leaks about the Israeli role are due to “Israel” wanting to create awareness of its involvement in the helicopter crash, to show that it is capable of reaching anything.

Palestinian political analyst Yasser al-Zaatreh does not rule out an Israeli role in Raisi's killing through modern technological tools, referring to the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which was carried out using modern technological tools (artificial intelligence) that have not yet been revealed.

In a tweet on X on May 19, he explained that "the political context supports this possibility, in the context of the Israeli response to Iranian missile strikes, which, despite their ostensible dimension, did not satisfy the appetites of the Zionists to restore deterrence, and it is natural for them to think of something else."

The Israeli Channel 13 hastened to report from Israeli sources: "We have no connection to the crash of the Iranian president's plane."

However, Israeli accounts and newspapers celebrated Raisi's death, publishing photos and caricature drawings mocking his killing. Yedioth Ahronoth described his death on its cover with the phrase: "Tehran Butcher Crashes."

The Times of Israel described him on May 20 as the "Khamenei's disciple."

Observers speculate that Tehran might hesitate to disclose any suspicion of the plane being targeted and will carefully consider the matter before revealing it.

The Fate of Succession 

One significant question arising from Raisi's death concerns the impact of his absence on the ongoing struggle for Khamenei's succession as Supreme Leader. This matter has been a focal point for scholars, officials, and analysts as Khamenei has aged.

Raisi was the foremost candidate to succeed Khamenei smoothly as the Supreme Leader, and analysts suggest that this could be a reason for a probable factional conflict in Iran after his death.

They affirmed that his method of managing his election led to his success, and the authorities' determination to ensure his victory and convey it suggested that he was the "awaited successor" to Khamenei, especially given his close affiliation with him and his faction.

They speculated that his death could thus trigger a dispute over the succession of the Supreme Leader and a power struggle among those aspiring to the position because Raisi was not just a president but was described as "Khamenei's heir," and his death therefore meant the death of Iran's future Supreme Leader.

Raisi's assassination may place Iran at a critical juncture due to the intense factional conflict, with Raisi's group being actively involved and working to secure his position as Khamenei's successor.

There are reports of factional conflicts, most notably accusations by the sons of the late President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani against certain internal entities of deliberately drowning their father in a swimming pool.

The Iranian government announced that former President Rafsanjani had died on January 8, 2017, of a heart attack, but reformist circles claimed that he was suffocated in a swimming pool on the orders of the Supreme Leader and executed by the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the Saudi channel Al-Arabiya on August 22, 2018.

His daughter, Fatemeh Rafsanjani, stated to the IRNA agency at the time that he was "assassinated and killed by drowning.”

Therefore, the Iran specialist analyst, Mohammed Suleiman, believes that "whether the killing of Ebrahim Raisi was an accident or an assassination, a significant sector of his supporters will believe that the faction supporting the succession of [Khamenei's son] Mojtaba to his father as the Supreme Leader had him killed."

Suleiman explained on X on May 19 that "Mojtaba Khamenei's" rivalry will intensify at the level of security and political costs within the regime itself, with his lack of legitimacy in front of the Iranian street."

However, Time observed on May 20 that “Raisi’s death means Mojtaba will now be seen as having a clear path to the top office. But that would also be a risky appointment. Iran has a fraught legacy with the concept of inherited rule — the leaders of the 1979 Islamic Revolution vehemently opposed any sort of system that resembled the monarchy they overthrew.

“Mojtaba’s popularity has also never been tested given that he doesn’t hold any government position and isn’t seen publicly very often. The Supreme Leader needs to at least have an appearance of having authentic support from the masses who support the current religious system if he’s to have any sort of legitimacy.”

On May 20, interim President Mohammad Mokhber appointed Ali Bagheri, Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran, to assume the position of Foreign Minister. Bagheri is close to the Revolutionary Guards and led Tehran's delegation in the nuclear agreement negotiations with Western countries.

Future Scenarios

Since Raisi is not the top figure in the country, his death is not expected to directly impact life in Iran. Supreme Leader Khamenei holds the reins of power, and the Iranian constitution regulates the transfer of power to a new president easily.

However, the dilemma lies in reopening the fronts of conflict among power factions and those aspiring to the presidency, especially after Raisi's death, which was previously considered almost settled. Perhaps that's why Khamenei moved to reassure the people after Raisi's death, stating: "The people should not worry, there will be no disruption in the country's affairs," according to the Tasnim News Agency.

According to the Republic's constitution, in the event of a vacancy in the presidency, the First Deputy President assumes the responsibilities of the President. Article 131 of the constitution states, "In the event of the death, dismissal, resignation, absence, or illness of the President of the Republic for more than two months, or in the event of the end of the term of the presidency and the failure to elect a new president due to some obstacles or similar circumstances, the First Deputy to the President of the Republic assumes the responsibilities of the President of the Republic and exercises his powers with the approval of the Leadership."

Currently, Mohammad Mokhber, the First Deputy to the President of Iran, has assumed the presidency temporarily. According to the constitution issued in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution, which was amended in 1989, the First Deputy to the President holds power for a maximum period of 50 days, during which preparations for the election of a new president and holding elections are made.

Article 132 of the constitution also stipulates that during the period in which the First Vice President, or another individual appointed under Article 131, assumes the responsibilities and powers of the President, ministers cannot be interrogated or subjected to a vote of no confidence.

It is rumored that the current deputy leans toward flexible reform compared to the conservative fundamentalists. Analysts suggest that he could play a vital role in addressing the regional and international tensions and crises within the current Iranian context.

Therefore, during his temporary presidency, and even if Mokhber were elected as a new president, it is expected that he would continue to seek to improve Iran's international relations, alleviate its isolation, and address the international sanctions faced by the country due to its nuclear program.

Iran faces immense challenges including Western opposition to its nuclear program, its struggling economy, and tense relations with “Israel” and other countries in the Middle East, according to The Guardian on May 20, 2024.

Mokhber (68 years old) is considered one of Khamenei's close associates, with significant influence over state affairs.

The European Union included him on a sanctions list between 2010 and 2012 due to alleged involvement in "nuclear activities and ballistic missile activities," but his name was removed after two years.

In 2013, the U.S. Treasury Department added the Setad financial conglomerate, managed by Khamenei and overseen by Mokhber among others, along with 37 companies supervised by the conglomerate, to the list of entities subject to U.S. sanctions.