Shifting Asylum Policies and the Fate of Arab Refugees in Europe

In late 2010 and early 2011, the Arab Spring revolutions swept across the region. 

However, the subsequent waves of brutal repression and, in some cases, outright coups, led to the creation of vast refugee populations fleeing to neighboring countries or heading westward—escaping the tyranny of regimes and the chaos of civil wars.

With the fall of the regime of the ousted Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the revelation of the horrific crimes committed against the opposition, both in the brutal prisons of oppression and in mass graves that hold the remains of thousands of tortured prisoners, an urgent question has emerged about how the world’s attitude toward Arab refugees, fleeing the brutality of repressive regimes might change.

The 1984 United Nations Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman, or Degrading Treatment or Punishment explicitly prohibits the deportation or forced return of any individual to their home country if there is credible reason to believe they would face torture.

A Potential Shift

Commenting on this, Omar al-Farhan, director of the Iraqi War Crimes Documentation Center, stated that "the situation of Arab refugees worldwide, particularly Syrians, came sharply back into focus in late 2024 in Europe, coinciding with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime."

Al-Farhan explained to Al-Estiklal that the conditions of Syrian refugees are currently fluctuating between countries, and their right to asylum is increasingly under threat. 

"In principle and according to natural law, there is no threat to stripping individuals of their refugee status, nor should there be any forced return to their home countries."

Regarding the situation of Arab refugees and the global perception of them, he argued that "there is no safe place for Arab refugees who fled their countries due to security tensions, armed conflicts, and other reasons," emphasizing the importance of "delaying the implementation of forced deportation laws in all countries."

"There are still many violations that can be observed in Arab countries, as well as similar abuses against refugees in a number of European countries, where tensions against them have risen in recent years,"al-Farhan noted.

While some European countries, along with Turkiye and the United States, opened their doors to welcome hundreds of thousands of Arab refugees, this has not been without its challenges. Refugees have faced racial discrimination within host societies and encountered rising political populism, which surged during this period.

One of the outcomes of this racial discrimination, which was exploited by far-right parties in Europe and even some nationalist parties in Turkiye, was pressure to expel Arab refugees, regardless of the uncertain fate or certain death that awaited them if they were returned to their home countries.

Indeed, there have been numerous reports of refugees being deported to face arrest, torture, and potentially execution for political reasons.

Several Arab and European countries have deported Arab refugees back to the countries they fled from, due to their political opposition to the regimes there.

Between 2014 and 2024, many Egyptian opposition figures of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's regime were deported from Gulf states and handed over to Egyptian authorities, under the pretext that they were wanted in their home country, with claims of security cooperation agreements with Cairo that required their extradition.

However, in a notable development, on December 17, 2024, Moroccan authorities decided to release Abdel Basset Imam, an Egyptian doctor and opposition figure (who holds Turkish citizenship), after the Moroccan court ruled against his extradition to Egypt and ordered his final release. 

Imam had been arrested at Casablanca’s Mohammed V Airport during a tourist visit.

Imam was detained at the airport on November 3, 2024, based on an arrest warrant issued by Cairo, as he had been sentenced to life imprisonment in Egypt for his political opposition to the regime. 

Additionally, his son was one of the victims of the 2013 Rabaa massacre in Cairo.

Observers interpret the Moroccan authorities’ decision as potentially signaling a shift in how countries are beginning to approach Arab refugees, particularly those fleeing from nations still suffering under repressive regimes.

The Syrian Lesson

Syrian writer Ibrahim Jabr argued that the mass return of Syrians from Turkiye carries an important message to the international community, "The root causes of displacement lie in persecution and despotism. When freedom prevails and oppression is removed, refugees choose to return home to rebuild their lives."

"The Syrian experience offers a critical lesson in addressing the global refugee crisis. Refugees are not forced to migrate by choice, but as a result of repressive regimes, systematic violence, and the deprivation of their basic rights," Jabr wrote in The New Arab.

“If the international community truly wants to reduce the number of refugees in the world, it must address the root causes of forced migration,” Jabr added.

This begins with ending support for authoritarian regimes and standing with the people who are fighting for freedom and democracy.

“Supporting dictatorships not only prolongs suffering but also exacerbates instability, creating waves of displacement that affect neighboring countries and the world as a whole.”

"Syrians did not choose to leave their country; they were forced to do so by war and oppression.Now, with the realization of freedom, they are choosing to return home, which is a powerful testament to the importance of freedom in human life."

"Governments and organizations must reassess their policies toward authoritarian regimes and prioritize the protection of human rights. By addressing the root causes of displacement, a world can be created where no one is forced to leave their homeland."

"The fall of Assad’s regime is a wake-up call. This event underscores the urgent need to end support for dictatorial regimes and empower people to achieve freedom and democracy," Jabr concluded.

Meanwhile, Syrian writer Fayez Sara stated that "the situation of Arab refugees indicates that they face difficult circumstances, which are intensifying in neighboring countries and beyond. Most countries—if not all—have become much more cautious in dealing with the phenomenon of asylum."

"Most countries now hinder the integration of refugees, limit their access to citizenship, and restrict residency rights and visas for those whose nationalities may designate them as refugees, such as Syrians, Sudanese, and Lebanese," Sara noted in al-Arabiya.

“The phenomenon of Arab asylum, with its current realities, implications, and future possibilities, represents a fragile Arab flank. This accelerates the ongoing decline in Arab affairs, as the image of Arabs in the world continues to worsen, portraying them as displaced and stateless, a demographic and civilizational phenomenon marked by ambiguity.”

Sara emphasized the need to “pressure the ruling authorities in the countries that generate refugees and migrants to take all necessary political and procedural steps to reduce the emigration of their citizens and work toward their return, or at least the return of as many as possible. It is natural for people to live in their homelands, not to become refugees.”

Arab Refugee Trends

By the end of 2024, amid the global uncertainty surrounding Arab refugees, many European countries had halted the consideration of asylum applications from Syrians following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, with the United Kingdom at the forefront.

The interim government in Austria also stopped all asylum applications from Syrians, claiming that it had plans to either repatriate or deport individuals to their home country, justifying this by stating that the situation in Syria had fundamentally changed.

Germany, which hosts around a million Syrians, along with the United Kingdom, France, and Greece, announced that they would suspend asylum decisions for the time being.

These moves are likely indicative of European countries taking more stringent measures against the rest of the Arab refugees, raising lingering questions about the fate of those who were forced to flee death due to security tensions or repressive regimes that continue to target anyone who opposes them.

Although there are no exact figures for the number of Arab refugees by the end of 2024, estimates suggest that the number has surpassed 25 million refugees from various Arab countries, including Syria, Sudan, Lebanon, Somalia, and Palestine, spread across both Arab and foreign countries.

In 2023, the European Asylum Support Office confirmed that 10 Arab nationalities were the most frequently requesting asylum in Europe, with Syrians, Iraqis, and Moroccans at the top.

Following these three countries, the next most frequent asylum seekers were from: Tunisia, Somalia, Egypt, Algeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Yemen. 

These figures pertain to the European Union, separate from the refugee populations in other regions of the world, for which official statistics are not available.

The number of Syrian asylum seekers reached approximately 131,700, the largest number both regionally and globally, considering the political and security conditions the country has endured since the revolution began in 2011. 

However, the peak of asylum requests occurred in 2015, when over 371,000 asylum applications were recorded.

Despite the relative return of stability to the country and the improvement in oil revenues, Iraq ranked second in the list of the highest Arab asylum requests in the European Union, with more than 26,900 applications.

Morocco recorded the highest number of asylum requests in the Maghreb region last year, with 21,895 applications, closely followed by Tunisia. 

This was the highest number since 2014, when Morocco recorded the lowest number of asylum requests (4,904 applications).

Despite Tunisia’s population being just over 12.5 million, it recorded a significant number of asylum requests to EU countries, totaling 21,447 applications in 2024, particularly between 2017 and 2022. 

This reflects a sense of unease due to the political and economic crisis facing the country, according to the report.

The European Union also recorded around 17,590 asylum applications from Somalis in 2022, up from the lowest recorded number in 2020, which was around 11,180 requests.

As for Egypt, the largest Arab country by population, “of 107 million people, registered 15,429 asylum requests in 2022, the highest since 2014.”

Algeria saw 9,765 asylum requests in European Union countries in 2022, higher than the lowest recorded number in 2014, which was 6,930 requests.

Occupied Palestine is classified as an unsafe country or region, and therefore, the acceptance rate for Palestinian asylum requests in EU countries is 65%, the highest among Arab countries after Syria and Yemen. 

Approximately 6,750 asylum requests were submitted from Palestine to the EU.

Sudanese asylum seekers had an acceptance rate of 48%, which is 8 percentage points above the European average, highlighting the European understanding of the challenging security and economic conditions, particularly in the country's western, southern, and eastern regions.

Finally, Yemenis had the highest priority for asylum approval in Europe after Syrians, with an acceptance rate of 84%. 

By 2023, 3,906 requests remained pending, according to the European Asylum Support Office report.