Saudi Arabia's 'Roadmap' for Yemen Crisis: Why Keep the Details Hidden?

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan's statements over the Yemen crisis have raised numerous questions about the nature and details of the "secret" roadmap he announced for resolving the ongoing Yemen crisis.

These statements coincided with consultations between the delegations of the legitimate government and the Houthi militia in the Omani capital, Muscat, regarding the issue of prisoners and abductees. Neither party mentioned the nature or details of the Saudi vision.

The Solution?

During a discussion session on ending the war in Yemen at the European Council on Foreign Relations meetings on July 4, 2024, in Madrid, bin Farhan said that the roadmap in Yemen is ready, and it will be signed soon.

Following the Saudi statements, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi delivered a stern speech, threatening to target the Kingdom, its banks, and airports. This raises open questions: Is this latest statement connected to the final solution remarks, or are there other complexities at play?

Journalist and activist Mohammed Ahmed Ghaleb stated, "After nine years of “Operation Decisive Storm,” taming the Houthis, their rule over Yemen no longer occupies a significant place in Saudi strategic concerns. Agreements have been reached based on mutual interests."

"Saudi Arabia does not see Yemen as a nation with developmental and political aspirations that must be respected, even minimally. Instead, it sees Yemen as a constant threat that directly impacts Riyadh's foreign political maneuvers," he told Al-Estiklal.

Journalist Ghaleb considered the Saudi Foreign Minister's statement about the roadmap, urging its immediate signing under the pretext of Yemen's dire economic and humanitarian situation, as a reaction to the feverish American presidential elections. This has put Riyadh in a race against time to resolve the Yemen issue before November 2024.

Saudi Arabia fears the return of Republican candidate Donald Trump to power, which could disrupt the situation, encouraging the Houthis to target Riyadh again and market American security protection in the region for more money.

Researcher Anwar al-Khudhari believes that "Saudi Arabia's vision for a solution is still undisclosed and primarily aligns with the agendas of international actors involved in Yemen’s file (the U.S. and the UK), in addition to its own agendas."

He told Al-Estiklal that "all these agendas take into account the balance of power imposed on the ground, ensuring Yemen remains under the control of regional and international actors.”

“This involves integrating various militias and rebel forces into the state's framework while leaving several issues unresolved, dependent on international and regional guarantees, whether concerning military, security, or economic matters.”

Researcher al-Khudhari pointed out that “political maneuvering will continue to be controlled externally and dependent on regional and international forces. Some economic and humanitarian situations will be addressed to alleviate tensions that could explode throughout the country, both in the north and south.”

“Yemeni political parties are at a disadvantage, operating within the limited space available to them, and aim to bring the country to safety at any cost. This is particularly true given that the coalition, which intervened militarily in Yemen over a decade ago under the pretext of restoring the state, has not achieved the outcomes associated with those slogans.”

Key Peace Initiatives

In the absence of details about the new roadmap, the first initiative was the Gulf Cooperation Council initiative in 2011. This called for the ousting of then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, transferring power to his deputy Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, forming a national unity government, and conducting a comprehensive national dialogue accompanied by constitutional reforms and elections.

Despite some difficult implementation of its provisions, security and political challenges prevented lasting stability in the country, resulting in the Houthi militia coup and their seizure of power in September 2014.

As the Houthis began advancing towards Sana'a and evading the commitments of the successful comprehensive dialogue, the UN sponsored the Peace and National Partnership Agreement in 2014, following the Houthi takeover of the capital with regional support as part of the so-called counter-revolutions.

The agreement called for forming a new government, implementing political and economic reforms, and integrating militias into the army. However, not a single provision of this agreement was implemented, which was the main reason for the renewed and broader conflict.

With the Saudi-Emirati coalition's intervention in “Operation Decisive Storm” in late March 2015, discussions about a peace initiative began. The Kuwait talks in 2016 brought together the conflicting parties (the legitimate government and the Houthis) for three months to discuss ending the war.

The talks focused on political and security arrangements and forming a national unity government. However, the round failed due to the inability to reach an agreement on key issues, primarily due to the Houthi group's intransigence, which wanted recognition of the status quo and for Saudi Arabia to halt the war only.

In 2018, when the coalition and the legitimate government began liberating Hodeidah, the Houthis' main lifeline, the United Nations brokered an agreement known as the Stockholm Agreement. This included three main components: a ceasefire in Hodeidah city and the redeployment of forces, an exchange of prisoners and detainees, and the opening of humanitarian corridors to facilitate aid delivery.

This agreement was mediated by the UN to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, but its implementation faced significant challenges due to ongoing violations and the Houthis' non-compliance with the terms.

As the conflict between the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council and the Saudi-backed legitimate government escalated, the Riyadh Agreement was brokered in 2019. This agreement was signed between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council.

It stipulated a power-sharing arrangement between the two parties, the formation of a competence-based government with equal representation, and the unification of military and security forces under the Ministries of Defense and Interior.

However, the agreement inadvertently granted new and dangerous legitimacy to the secessionist Southern Transitional Council, severely weakening the legitimate government, dissipating its military and security forces, and elevating the call for secession, which later became a significant part of the legitimacy.

In March 2021, Saudi Foreign Minister bin Farhan announced a new initiative to end the war in Yemen, which was welcomed by the Yemeni government, the United States, the United Kingdom, Qatar, Egypt, several Arab countries, and the European Union.

The new initiative, as announced by the coalition, included reopening Sana'a Airport for a limited number of direct regional and international destinations, easing the blockade on Hodeidah port on the western coast, and depositing port tax revenues into a joint bank account at the central bank.

However, it wasn't long before the Houthi group rejected the Saudi initiative, with their spokesperson, Mohammad Abdel Salam, stating that it offered nothing new and that there would be no compromise on humanitarian issues for political and military gains unless Riyadh completely stopped the war and lifted the blockade by air and sea.

Solution Approaches

Saudi Arabia’s approach to resolving the Yemen conflict after nine years of war remains "not entirely clear." Statements from Saudi officials indicate a desire to end the conflict, secure borders, and halt missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory.

Their approach is based on several key factors, which can be summarized through long-standing policies that are also tied to the intervention launched with "Operation Decisive Storm" in 2015:

First, preventing the return of the "Islamist" Islah Party to power, aligned with a regional sentiment aggressively opposing Islamists and ousting them from power after staging counter-revolutions in Arab Spring countries.

Second, ensuring Yemen does not reunify under strong central leadership, currently supporting secession in the south and making it an unavoidable factor while maintaining some control, especially given the UAE's significant involvement in this matter.

Third, preventing the emergence of any new Yemeni faction that could compete within the country. Over recent years, this has involved targeting and weakening all solid blocs within the country, whether related to society, political parties, or even the military and security forces.

Lastly, regarding the Houthi militia, the focus is on severing their ties with Iran while allowing their continued presence in Yemen. This remains a contentious issue, as Saudi Arabia conditions the recognition of the Houthis and the assumption of all war obligations on this stance.

The legitimate government aims to restore full legitimacy across all regions of Yemen controlled by the Houthis and other armed groups. They also seek to dismantle the secessionist rhetoric in southern Yemen supported by the UAE, implement UN Security Council resolutions, and return to the outcomes of the comprehensive national dialogue that brought together all Yemeni political components in 2013.

The Houthis have their own approach, focused on preserving the gains they have made during the years of war and rejecting any return to the pre-2014 status quo.

Their second approach involves participating in power-sharing with the government, but in a way that ensures they remain a disruptive force without being a major part of the solution.

Regarding Tehran, the Houthis reject any provision or move that isolates them from Iran under any circumstances, a longstanding point of contention with Saudi Arabia.