Presidential Farce: Kais Saied on Stage to Continue His Authoritarian Tactics

After leading the Arab world during the Spring Revolutions, Tunisia experienced a "farce" of a presidential election on October 6, 2024, wherein a dictator named Kais Saied competed against himself. 

This bizarre contest unfolded after he barred seven prominent candidates from running, permitting only two—one imprisoned and the other, a supporter, relegated to the role of a mere "extra."

This election marked the first instance in which, "three days before the presidential elections in the streets of Tunisia, it is difficult to find anything that indicates an ongoing electoral campaign—no posters, no rallies, no televised debates, only a pervasive atmosphere of gloom and disappointment among Tunisians," as reported by France 2. 

Leading up to the election, the refrain "Kais Saied as president of Tunisia for a second term" echoed, as all signs indicated that the former constitutional law professor had devolved into a dictator, supported by the deep state, preparing to succeed himself and remain ensconced in the Carthage Palace.

Protests preceding the election clearly articulated accusations against Saied for dismantling state institutions and thrusting the country into an unprecedented political, economic, and social crisis after three years of his coup, effectively returning Tunisia to the pre-Arab Spring era. 

Reports and analyses suggest that Tunisia may either mirror the situation under al-Sisi’s Egyptian regime, thus entombing the Arab Spring, or witness a popular uprising against Saied reminiscent of Ben Ali's fleeing the country. In both scenarios, the outcome largely hinges on the stance of the military institution.

Won by 90%

The last rigged dictatorial election in Tunisia occurred on October 25, 2009, when the late former president Ben Ali was proclaimed the winner with 89.6% of the vote, according to French Weekly news magazine Paris Match. 

After fleeing the country in 2011, Tunisia embarked on an era of free elections. It is thus paradoxical that Saied was announced the victor with a percentage surpassing that of the dictator Ben Ali.

Initially, he was declared the winner in a poll by the private firm Sigma Conseil (a leading office in collecting, processing, and interpreting data) with 89.2%, followed by an official announcement of his victory with 90.7% of the votes, securing a second presidential term.

This result reflects a return to the inflated percentages typically associated with dictators, often exceeding 90%, while the imprisoned candidate, Ayachi Zammel, garnered 7.3%, and former deputy Zouhair Maghzaoui, who expressed support for Saied, received 1.9%.

Saied was first elected in 2019 with the backing of most parties, including Ennahda, receiving 73% of the votes and achieving a 58% voter turnout, having captivated the public with impassioned speeches in Arabic and promises to combat corruption.

Despite widespread public discontent and massive protests against him, along with a boycott leading to only 28% participation in the 2024 elections, he was deemed "successful" with a percentage that exceeded even that of Ben Ali, attributed to the machinations of the deep state, which many Tunisians viewed as “blatant fraud.”

Most opposition parties opted to boycott the elections, labeling them a "ruse," particularly after the imprisonment of prominent critics of Saied, including journalists, lawyers, activists, and notable civil society figures. 

The opposition, whose leaders remain incarcerated, along with local and international NGOs, condemned the "authoritarian drift" manifested through the suppression of the judiciary and press, restrictions on civil society organizations, and the arrest of trade unionists, activists, and journalists. 

On October 7, 2024, the Associated Press reported that Saied’s overwhelming victory, nearing 91 percent, "was achieved following a campaign of repression against his opponents, who were imprisoned alongside journalists and activists."

‘Magical Numbers’

Former Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalam characterized the election as Saied returning Tunisia to the "magical numbers" of Arab dictatorships. 

He noted that, in the aftermath of a revolution, presidents typically secure just over 50% of the vote, while in regimes like Saied's, the percentage hovers around 90, owing to the exclusion of competitors, disregard for administrative court rulings permitting their participation, imprisonment of others, and manipulation of ballots.

In the lead-up to the elections, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) reduced a lengthy list of 17 presidential candidates to just three through a series of dubious exclusions. 

Among the remaining candidates, former deputy Zemmal was imprisoned on charges of document forgery, and the elections were conducted with him in prison as a presidential candidate. 

Bassam Khawaja, Deputy Executive Director for the Middle East and North Africa at Human Rights Watch, informed the British newspaper The Guardian on October 5, 2024, that "Since the start of the electoral period on 14 July, authorities have prosecuted, convicted, or detained at least nine prospective candidates." 

In 2021, Saied suspended the operations of the opposition-controlled parliament and dismissed the Prime Minister. 

The following year, he conducted a rigged referendum to amend the constitution, granting himself extensive powers, including the authority to appoint and dismiss judges and the seven members of the High Independent Electoral Authority at will. 

Over ten leaders from the main opposition party, Ennahda, were arrested, including Rached Ghannouchi, the party’s leader, with the crackdown on the party intensifying during the elections, affecting around 200 of its members.

Saied's pursuit of an authoritarian agenda coincided with a deterioration in Tunisia's economic conditions, where unemployment rates surged, and inflation reached double digits. 

He faced severe criticism from most political parties and civil society organizations, with widespread allegations of leading "Tunisia into the unknown" and seeking to eliminate his strongest opponents, particularly Ennahda, which had dominated political life during the decade of democratic transition following Ben Ali's ousting in 2011.

Despite this, Saied asserted in his first comment to state television regarding these remarkable electoral results—deemed a coup against the "Jasmine Revolution"—that “what we are experiencing is a continuation of the revolution(…) We will build and construct, and we will cleanse the country of the corrupt, traitors, and conspirators!”

Implications of ‘The Victory’

The implications of Saied's victory are multifaceted, marking Tunisia's regression to the sphere of Arab dictatorships and the complete burial of its Arab Spring. 

The deep state's satisfaction with Saied and support for his continued grip on power followed his granting of privileges to its key pillars, particularly within the military and police, as a gesture of loyalty.

Furthermore, the tacit approval and silence of Western nations, particularly European countries, concerning this repression—which culminated in rigged elections—signal another dimension of an implicit agreement or mutual interest between the Tunisian regime and these countries.

This arrangement mirrors that of "el-Sisi in Egypt," facilitating support for the ruling authority in exchange for the forcible diversion of migrants from European territories.

Le Monde noted on October 9, 2024, that Saied  “has become Europe's brutal border guard.”

The publication elaborated that France and Europe are watching with indifference Saied's risky dictatorial adventure; democracy does not concern them; they are primarily focused on his cooperation in halting migration flows toward Italy.

In 2023, Saied initiated a severe crackdown on unregistered African migrants, prompting international criticism. Nevertheless, the European Union advanced a €105 million agreement with Tunisia aimed at curbing irregular migration. 

This agreement financed security units that, according to an investigation by The Guardian on September 19, 2024, were implicated in widespread sexual violence against women along migration routes within Tunisian territory.

Upon assuming power in 2019, Saied overturned the democratic experiment, altering the political landscape by dissolving parliament and manipulating various institutions, especially the judiciary, to serve his new dictatorial agenda. 

The Tunisian president Saied turned against his former allies, notably the Ennahda party, imprisoning nearly 200 of its leaders and supporters, leveraging the backing of the military, security apparatus, counter-revolutionary forces, and the deep state, which harbored grievances against the 2011 revolution.

Before the 2024 elections, forecasts indicated that the deep state would reassess its position, anticipating that military and security institutions would cease their support for Saied and restore democratic governance, paving the way for a potential new revolution.

As suggested in the Arab Reform Initiative, "The President's probable victory on 6 October will enable him to remain at the helm of the country, but his legitimacy will remain fragile.” 

This highlights a critical tension in governance: while the President may secure power through elections, the underlying legitimacy of that power can be questioned, especially if the process lacks genuine democratic principles.

The deep state's backing suggests a preference for a more authoritarian regime, which aligns with their interests in maintaining control and stability, potentially at the expense of democratic ideals. This endorsement not only underscores the fragility of the President's legitimacy but also signals a significant shift away from the aspirations of the Arab Spring, which sought to promote greater democracy and citizen empowerment.

Price of Remaining in Power

In the lead-up to the elections, Kais Saied strategically sought to cultivate support from the pillars of the deep state and military by offering various incentives.

He appointed military personnel and judges to ministerial and political roles, effectively securing loyalty from security leaders and figures entrenched within the deep state through additional privileges. 

These actions were widely perceived as "bribes," a calculated cost for his continued reign, in exchange for safeguarding the interests of these influential figures.

Prior to this, the deep state had aligned itself with Saied during his efforts to freeze political life and render the state effectively paralyzed, all while failing to present any reformative alternatives to justify his coup.

His subsequent manipulation of the 2024 elections to consolidate power and eliminate any legitimate competition dovetailed neatly with the objectives of the deep state.

Analysts contend that the deep state’s renewed support for Saied signifies that its interests have found a convenient symbol in him, one through which they can maintain a semblance of coexistence. 

This alignment persists amidst Saied’s usurpation of democracy, reflecting the environment in which the deep state operates—characterized by tyranny and systemic corruption.

A study by the International Center for Security and Military Strategic Studies, conducted on April 26, 2023, elucidated that the deep state network within Tunisia is currently intertwined and interconnected, a reflection of the political instability that has persisted since 2011. 

However, the study affirmed that it "remains steadfast as a parallel state dedicated to safeguarding its interests, capable of ensuring cohesion and preventing disputes, conflicts of interest, and confrontations."

In addition to the deep state's support for Kais Saied and its renewed allegiance in exchange for incentives offered to key figures in military, security, and judicial institutions—indicative of his electoral victory—there is another significant implication: the approval of European nations towards this dictatorship, largely due to Saied's role in curbing migration to Europe, a function previously fulfilled by el-Sisi.

Replication of el-Sisi’s Model

Tunisia now stands at a crossroads, facing two potential scenarios. The first entails the replication of el-Sisi's model within Tunisia under Saied's leadership, effectively entombing the aspirations of the Arab Spring by nullifying the last democratic experiment and dimming the dreams associated with it. 

The second scenario envisions a unification and uprising of Tunisians, akin to the 2011 revolution against Saied's regime, which has emerged as a new facade for the deep state, in an effort to reclaim Tunisia and echo the narrative of Ben Ali’s ouster.

The first scenario has become increasingly apparent following Saied's coup against democracy, characterized by the dissolution of parliament and the alteration of laws designed to fortify his control over the judiciary and political landscape. 

Many Tunisians regard the 2024 rigged elections as the definitive conclusion to the Tunisian Spring.

Le Monde remarked that the descent into dictatorship has no end in Tunisia, representing a profound regression towards tyranny that undermines the achievements of the democratic transition initiated in 2011. In its September 12, 2024 editorial, Le Monde described the presidential elections as "Kais Saied is a new dictator, a new Ben Ali.”

Media outlets are facing censorship, and civil associations are being stifled, with Saied justifying this escalating repression as a necessary response to alleged conspiracies originating from abroad. 

An analysis by The Tahiri Institute for Middle East Policy published on October 4, 2024, suggested that, “Barring a dramatic shift in circumstances, Kais Saied will most certainly win this election. Despite all the legal and political scheming to block candidates and control the narrative, there are positive outcomes that pro-democracy Tunisians could leverage.” 

The analysis further noted that the overt nature of Saied's abuses has sparked renewed protests and mobilization after a period of political estrangement.

The institute highlighted the “success of civil and political groups opposing Saied in rekindling public interest in political issues. The prevailing challenge lies in sustaining this momentum and leveraging the renewed engagement to ensure that the public remains actively involved in political discourse.”