New Rules; Will Erdogan Succeed in Attracting the “Saadat” Party to the People's Alliance?

A state of rapprochement and polarization in the Turkish political arena, especially between the ruling “Justice and Development” Party, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the rules of the “Saadat” Party, judging by their common history, despite the previous distancing.

In a lengthy series of tweets on Twitter, the Chairman of the Supreme Consultative Council of the Saadat Party, and the spiritual father of the Milli Gorus movement, Oguzhan Asil Turk, called on lead the party to an extraordinary congress to correct a number of errors that made during the last period, and that affected the party rules and ideological vision.

In his tweets, Asil Turk pointed a number of criticisms of the way the “Saadat” party management and the rhetoric used by the party leaders, he called on the members not to lose hope and to work within the framework drawn by the founder of the Milli Gorus movement, Necmettin Erbakan.

The last period since 2018, witnessed a significant shift in the movement of the Saadat Party, under the chairmanship of Temel Karamollaoglu, when joined the Opposition Nation's Alliance consisting of the “Republican People's Party” and “Good Party”, which is considered a secular and nationalist composition.

The alliance was a shock to the rules of the Saadat Party, which saw that it contradicted the original course of their movement from the beginning, and the project of the late Erbakan, the weariness began to escalate and the differences hit the pillars of “Saadat”, with the rise of leadership voices calling for rapprochement with the Justice and Development Party and Erdogan, as the closest intellectual and historical trends to the party.

In addition, the Turkish president weaves the threads of rapprochement with the leaders of the movement who support that trend, and on top of them Oguzhan Asil Turk.

Historical Backgrounds

Going back years, specifically February 28, 1997, army tanks and armored vehicles were roaming the streets of the country under the command of the Chief of the General Staff (at that time), General “Goek Bear”, announcing the coup, which was historically known as the “postmodern coup” or the “February 28 process”.

The coup overthrew the elected government led by the Islamist leader Erbakan, he has a long history of struggle against military rule, and the spiritual father of the Turkish Islamic movement.

On January 16, 1998, the Constitutional Court ruled to close down the “Welfare” Party, and a 5-year political ban was imposed on Erbakan, and a number of party leaders.

At that time, the coup leaders represented in the National Security Council said: “The effects on Turkish political life will last for a thousand years if necessary”.

But it was only a few years and the “reformist current” rose up, trying to regain control, where a party with a conservative composition emerged, imposing its control over Turkish life, it ruled the country for more than two decades, it was the Justice and Development Party, led by President Erdogan.

In addition to the “Saadat” Party, which was officially adopted on February 22, 2002, and it proceeded with the same orientation and approach as the late leader Erbakan, and the nature of his Islamic reformist ideas, led by his disciples, Numan Kurtulmus, and Muhammad Rajai Kutan, as it was mainly aimed at continuing the march of the “Welfare” Party, which was dissolved by the military coup in 1997.

The party had entered into a deep clash for many years with the (ruling) Justice and Development Party, led by the other branch of the sons of Erbakan in the Islamic movement, on top of them are Erdogan and Abdullah Gul, as they considered that they broke away from the march of Erbakan and his method.

Disagreements continued to escalate between the two currents, amid fierce battles and polarizations that define Turkish political life, the decision was always in favor of the ruling party, as it is the leader of the experience and the founder of the era of comprehensive renaissance witnessed by the state.

Istanbul Shock

After the shock suffered by the Justice and Development Party in the 2019 local elections, when the major municipalities lost, led by Istanbul, which they have governed since 1994, it went to the representative of the Republican People's Party, Ekrem Imamoglu.

These results prompted the Turkish president to search for mechanisms and steps aimed at restoring the Greater Istanbul Municipality, and correcting the path in general, especially since many Turkish politicians say that 5% usually decides the Turkish elections, given that 95% of the votes are already settled, because of the fixed ideological biases of parties and orientations.

This was evident in the battle of the municipal elections in Istanbul, where the Justice and Development Department lost the most important municipality in Turkey, by only 18,000 votes, in favor of the Republican People's Party.

In early January 2021, Erdogan took two critical steps, the first was when he visited the tomb of former Prime Minister Erbakan in Istanbul, the second is for the Chairman of the Supreme Consultative Council of the Saadat Party, Oguzhan Asil Turk, at his home in the capital, Ankara.

Finally, the Turkish president's special invitation to Oguzhan came to the presidential palace, to break the fast together in the month of Ramadan, to prove that the relationship between the two men has reached a strong degree and clear agreement, and to confirm that Erdogan's efforts towards the Saadat Party and its rules are making remarkable progress.

The situation did not stop at this point, in February 2021, President Erdogan nominated Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, to be the head of the Justice and Development Party in Istanbul, he is one of the “Mili Gorus” hawks founded by the late Erbakan.

The appointment of Kabaktepe achieved partial satisfaction within the rules of the Saadat Party, it showed the extent of the strong demand within the conservative parties in general, to go back to the common history again.

 

“Asil Turk” Uprising

On June 15, 2021, Asil Turk rose up, with 53 consecutive tweets on his Twitter account, he criticized the head of the Saadat Party, Karamollaoglu, because of his alliance with the opposition parties.

 

Asil Turk began his tweets by saying: “Our goal is to create a world in which we can live in peace”, and he spoke about brotherhood away from the negative effects of politics and tolerance, quoting from Quranic verses and some hadiths and sayings.

Then, he strongly criticized his party's position based on the continuous opposition to the government formed by the Justice and Development, which led to the decline of supporters of Saadat significantly, according to his description.

Asil Turk added: “For a political party to succeed, it must serve the truths it believes in; Therefore, our primary goal should be to try to orient society to moral and spiritual values”.

He also confirmed: “If we do not pay attention as our teacher Erbakan says, we will become like other parties, and then disappear, we must not forget that those who vote for us, not those who come to us for material opportunities, it's people who respect our beliefs”.

Asil Turk hinted at the upcoming changes within the party, when he said: “With the decisions to be taken at the next General Conference, the Saadat party will be able to defend its founding values”.

Turkish observers considered that Asil Turk absorbed the state of anger within the rules of his party and movement, those who were bothered by being in a row with the Republican people and the Democratic people.

Future Scenarios

In the context of these rapid developments, the future scenarios appear represented in the magnitude of the challenge facing this party of the sons of the Turkish Islamic movement, that stands today at a crossroads, and in an internal conflict over the relationship with the Justice and Development Party between two main currents.

The first current led by Karamollaoglu, who believes that the Justice and Development Party and Erdogan harm Turkey greatly, he justifies himself to stand with any other party, even if it is the far left of the secular, in order to bring down the president, and not to allow him to win the 2023 elections.

While the second current led by Oguzhan Asil Turk, who believes that the Turkish president with his recent policies of opening the Hagia Sophia Mosque, and its confrontation with the West and America, his standing within the framework of the vision of the “Milli Gorus” movement; Therefore, we should work with him and support him in this difficult stage, both internally and externally for the sake of Turkey, especially since Erdogan is extending his hand to such cooperation, it is a historical precedent that has not occurred before between these two parties.

If the Saadat party falls into the people’s alliance with Erdogan, by counting the votes, the alliance will get the support of a limited electoral segment, but it is disciplined.

It will be a milestone because of the intensification of competition between the existing blocs, since every electoral vote has a double value in Turkish political life, especially after the last elections in the country were won by no more than 2% of the vote.

In the 2018 elections, the Saadat party received nearly 700,000 votes, or 1.34% of the vote.