‘Israel’ and the U.S. Fail to Find an Alternative: Who Will Govern Gaza After the Ceasefire?

Despite reaching a ceasefire agreement and a prisoner exchange, the question of “who will govern Gaza after the war” remains unresolved, as the Israeli Occupation failed to create an alternative to the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).

Over the past 16 months, neither “Israel,” the United States, nor Arab and Western countries have managed to articulate a clear plan for a post-war Gaza.

This comes as Tel Aviv, Washington, the Palestinian Authority, and several Arab states reject the prospect of any future governance that includes Hamas.

The situation is further complicated by the Israeli Occupation’s refusal to accept the rule of Mahmoud Abbas' Authority, which it accuses, alongside Hamas, of supporting “terrorism.”

“Israel” and its Arab and Western allies had hoped to crush Hamas by the end of this round, but that did not happen.

On the first day of the ceasefire, January 19, 2025, resistance fighters from the al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, held a powerful display of force, riding Jeeps and carrying weapons as they released Israeli prisoners in the heart of Gaza City.

These images sparked significant anger within Israeli circles, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and most of his ministers had pledged to achieve the goal of “eliminating Hamas.”

Failed Proposals

The agreement, brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, included a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange, but the issue of who will govern Gaza was left unaddressed in the three-phase plan.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to pledge the destruction of Hamas, rejecting any possibility of the resistance movement returning to govern Gaza. This comes as extreme right-wing ministers, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, suggest resettling Israelis and displacing Palestinians.

It is unclear how Netanyahu intends to confront Hamas’s rule, as Gaza remains devoid of any other authority after the Islamic group expelled the Palestinian Authority forces, led by Mahmoud Abbas, from the besieged territory in 2007.

In January 2024, Yoav Gallant, then Minister of War, who was later dismissed due to political disagreements with Netanyahu, proposed a plan to retain what he called “the right to carry out operations” in Gaza, similar to the military strategy in the occupied West Bank.

This implies that the Israeli army would retain the authority to carry out aerial and ground “operations” in Gaza whenever deemed necessary, even under a ceasefire agreement.

“Hamas will not govern Gaza, and Israel will not govern Gaza's civilians. Gaza's residents are Palestinian, so Palestinian bodies will oversee governance,” Gallant said.

“The entity controlling Gaza will rely on existing administrative mechanisms [civil committees],” he added.

This plan effectively excludes Abbas’s authority, despite repeated calls from Washington for the Palestinian Authority to play a role in Gaza's future.

Both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly emphasized that Gaza "will not be governed by Hamas again."

During the months of the war, “Israel” failed to persuade the clans and elders of Gaza to overthrow Hamas and manage the besieged enclave, despite persistent efforts.

Among the proposed solutions was the creation of an international force to temporarily govern Gaza. This idea was first put forward by “Israel” and gained traction among some Arab nations, with the UAE publicly signaling its support.

UAE Assistant Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Lana Nusseibeh, said that her country “is ready to participate in a multinational force in Gaza” after the war ends, emphasizing that this would only occur “if invited by the Palestinian Authority, the Western-backed body that administers limited parts of the occupied West Bank.”

“The UAE could consider being part of the stabilization forces alongside Arab and international partners [..] at the invitation of a reformed PA, or a PA led by an empowered prime minister,” Nusseibeh told the Financial Times in July 2024. “The United States should have the lead on this for it to succeed.”

She said Abu Dhabi had, “and continued to have, conversations on the ‘day after’ with all the concerned actors in the region”.

The Financial Times reported that diplomats said Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza, and Morocco, which normalized ties with “Israel” in 2020, were “also considering the plan.”

Previously, in May 2024, the Arab League called for the deployment of a United Nations peacekeeping force in Gaza and the West Bank until a Palestinian state is established.

The Palestinian Authority under Abbas emphasized that there was “no legitimacy” for the presence of any foreign troops on Palestinian soil, in response to what it called “Israeli statements calling for the handover of Gaza to international forces.”

Palestinian presidential spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudeineh said on July 1, 2024, that only the Palestinian people have the right to decide who will govern and manage their affairs.

Palestinian Authority

Among the more logical options for the Palestinians and some Arab countries is for Mahmoud Abbas's Authority to govern Gaza until internal matters are arranged and elections can be held.

However, the division and conflicts between Fatah and Hamas hinder this plan, especially given their opposing visions.

The Palestinian Authority follows a path of security coordination with “Israel,” fighting resistance groups and working to hand over their members in the West Bank to “Israel,” in addition to following the Israeli Occupation's lead in combating resistance groups in the Jenin refugee camp.

On the other hand, Hamas and other national factions see military resistance as an approach that cannot be abandoned against “Israel” and refuse to surrender their weapons to the Authority.

Speaking at the Atlantic Council in Washington in his final days as the U.S. top diplomat, Blinken said Washington envisioned a reformed Palestinian Authority leading Gaza and inviting international partners to help establish and run an interim administration for the enclave.

“For many months, we've been working intensely with our partners to develop a detailed post-conflict plan that would allow Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza, prevent Hamas from filling back in, and provide for Gaza's governance, security and reconstruction.”

A security force would be formed from forces from partner nations and vetted Palestinian personnel, Blinken said during his speech, which was repeatedly interrupted by protesters who accused him of supporting genocide by “Israel” against Palestinians in Gaza.

According to Blinken, the plan includes uniting Gaza and the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority's rule, without militarily occupying the sector, reducing its land, or displacing its population.

Since the ceasefire, Palestinian officials, including Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa and Abbas's religious advisor Mahmoud al-Habbash, have emphasized that Hamas should no longer rule Gaza and that the Authority is the only representative of the Palestinian people.

Meanwhile, Trump pledged shortly after the Doha agreement to work closely with “Israel” and his allies to ensure Gaza does not become “a safe haven for terrorists again.”

His administration has not yet revealed its intentions regarding Gaza's governance or its views on Biden's plan to ultimately replace Hamas with the Palestinian Authority.

Perhaps “Trump’s return to the White House may have helped pressure Benjamin Netanyahu into a ceasefire, but not to a particular peace,” The Guardian has learned.

The paper added that “the incoming U.S. president is unlikely to pick up Blinken’s plan for a reformed and UN-monitored Palestinian Authority to oversee governance of a unified Gaza and West Bank.”

“Israel for its part will risk a bigger vacuum by acting on its commitment not to co-operate with UNRWA, the UN agency for the Palestinians, and other NGOs.”

“Nor is there any certainty that Palestine will have the quality of leadership required to take sole administrative charge of Gaza,” The Guardian further noted.

The Palestinian Authority, under the leadership of the aging Mahmoud Abbas, faces growing discontent in the West Bank and has repeatedly failed to resolve its rift with Hamas during negotiations in Moscow, Beijing, and Cairo.

What’s Next?

Sadeq Abu Amer, head of the Palestinian Dialogue Group, told Al-Estiklal that “the last war on Gaza was completely different from previous ones in terms of scale, brutality, and losses, and therefore will not stop at a ceasefire and limited security arrangements.”

“The post-conflict phase needs political solutions to provide a framework for security arrangements, countering Israel's attempts to reduce the future to mere humanitarian and economic measures.”

Abu Amer predicted that “Israel” would seek to capitalize on Trump's return by limiting the solution to providing aid and reconstruction, while reintroducing a new version of the “Deal of the Century” to liquidate the Palestinian cause.

“Israel will try to integrate into the normalization path, benefiting from the results achieved in striking the Iran axis, a choice it prefers over pursuing a political solution to the Palestinian issue,” he said.

Arab countries are likely to push for a political pathway that paves the way for a Palestinian entity, even with limited sovereignty, as a prerequisite for normalization—without which the process risks stalling.

Abu Amer pointed out that Turkiye has recently become a strong player in the future of the Palestinian cause after joining the Gulf bloc (improving relations between the two).

Turkiye’s presence “gives this path regional weight because it possesses strong negotiating cards to push for recognition of the Palestinian state path.”

“What happened is that Trump negotiated the Gaza agreement with powers that are not directly at the negotiation table, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, which most likely played a key role, along with Egypt and Qatar,” he added.

Abu Amer speculated that the Trump administration would likely lean toward recognizing Palestinian rights in its dealings with major power centers, without ignoring Israeli conditions, if Netanyahu’s government undergoes a shift.

Despite meetings and discussions between them, Trump still harbors resentment toward Netanyahu, according to Maariv, quoting sources close to the new U.S. president.

These sources conveyed a worrying message to Netanyahu in January 2025, informing him that Trump had lost full trust in him, despite all the public smiles and pleasantries.

The Hebrew newspaper added that Trump, who considers personal loyalty the foundation of his political relationships, had not forgotten Netanyahu’s early congratulations to Biden after his 2020 election loss.

This news coincides with leaks suggesting that Trump wants to broker a regional peace settlement in the Middle East, but not under Netanyahu's leadership.

Sources indicate that Trump believes the presence of a new right-wing leader in “Israel” is essential to push forward a “historic peace” agreement with Saudi Arabia.

This came after days of Trump posting a controversial video on Truth Social, which included strong insults toward Netanyahu.

The video features economist Jeffrey Sachs sharply criticizing Netanyahu, accusing him of manipulating U.S. foreign policy and organizing “endless wars” in the Middle East.

Abu Amer sees the situation leaning toward negotiations over conflict but warns a reversal isn't off the table.

He added that if the Palestinian resistance cannot adapt to the new situation, it may be bypassed, and its presence may no longer be essential, with the Palestinian Authority becoming the main beneficiary.

A military escalation will be very difficult for all parties, especially since Iran will likely choose to adapt to the new circumstances without disrupting the political process.

Regarding the possibility of leveraging the Gaza ceasefire agreement to move forward in the political process, Palestinian writer and political analyst Dr. Hossam al-Dajani, outlines three scenarios. The first scenario involves the formation of a national unity government.

The second option is the establishment of a community support committee to manage Gaza, as recently agreed upon in Cairo, though without Abbas's approval.

The third scenario involves a power vacuum in Gaza, a situation Hamas cannot accept.

Al-Dajani emphasized that all Palestinians are pushing for the first scenario, as it is essential to have a national entity representing everyone and addressing crucial issues, including reconstruction.