If Syrian Refugees Return Home, How Will Germany Address Its Labor Shortage Crisis?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime immediately sparked European warnings about a sudden return of Syrian refugees to their homeland and the potential impact on key economic sectors heavily reliant on their contributions.

A decade after the major wave of Syrian refugees fled to Europe to escape the brutality of the now-overthrown regime, these refugees have become vital contributors to essential sectors in the countries they settled in.

Fears of Return

Syrian refugees have become a cornerstone of Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, which has taken in over a million Syrians since 2014.

Following the announcement of the fall of Syria’s authoritarian regime on December 8, 2024, European countries openly expressed concerns about the sudden return of refugees who had integrated into their new communities and contributed significantly to their host economies.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed these fears on December 13, emphasizing that “integrated” Syrian refugees are “welcome” in Germany. In a post on X, the Social Democratic leader stated, “Anyone who works here and is well-integrated is welcome in Germany and will remain so,” adding that “some recent statements have unsettled our citizens of Syrian origin.”

Scholz’s remarks came in response to calls from far-right conservatives to repatriate refugees after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Alice Weidel, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party’s candidate for chancellor, declared in a post on X, “We won’t accept anyone anymore!”

The AfD, which has gained popularity by capitalizing on public fears about the influx of migrants, has surged to second place in polls ahead of Germany's early legislative elections scheduled for February 23, 2025.

Public opinion in Germany remains divided, with some advocating for repatriation and others opposing it.

Jens Spahn, a prominent leader of the conservative parliamentary bloc, proposed hiring planes and offering a €1,000 incentive “for anyone willing to return to Syria.”

According to Germany's Federal Statistical Office, 75,500 Syrians had acquired German citizenship by mid-2024, spending an average of 6.8 years in Germany before becoming citizens.

While these individuals are now German nationals, many Syrian refugees remain without citizenship, leaving them vulnerable to deportation.

Economic Setback

A striking aspect of the situation is a study published on December 13, revealing that the return of Syrian refugees from Germany to their homeland could worsen labor shortages in key sectors, notably healthcare, transportation, and logistics.

The Institute for Employment Studies highlighted that in Europe’s largest economy, which already suffers from a structural workforce deficit, Syrian refugees play vital roles in industries facing acute labor shortages, such as health services, logistics, and transportation.

While the study noted that the refugees' return might not drastically impact the overall economy, it warned of significant localized and sector-specific effects. Syrian workers currently make up about 0.6% of Germany's labor force, approximately 287,000 individuals (rising to 0.8% when including naturalized Syrian Germans). Many Syrians who arrived post-2015 are still pursuing education or vocational training to enter the job market.

Concerns over the return of Syrian refugees are particularly pronounced in healthcare. Gerald Gas, head of the German Hospital Federation, cautioned about the potential loss of Syrian doctors, who have been instrumental in sustaining healthcare services, especially in small-town hospitals.

According to Der Spiegel, citing the German Medical Association, 5,758 Syrian doctors are currently practicing in Germany, primarily in rural areas where their replacement would be challenging. Similarly, ZDF noted that over 5,000 Syrian doctors work in German medical facilities, often in regions where finding substitutes would be difficult.

The potential exodus of Syrian refugees could deal a severe blow to elderly care services, warned Isabell Halletz, director of an organization focused on this sector, speaking to N-TV.

The Institute for Employment Studies further emphasized that Syrian workers are concentrated in critical industries, including transportation, logistics, industrial production, hospitality, food services, health, and construction. Meanwhile, Syrian women primarily work in social and cultural services.

Amid these concerns, Germany was among the first European nations to suspend reviewing asylum applications from Syrian refugees, citing prevailing uncertainties.

Following the ousting of Assad, several EU countries, including Germany and Italy, froze the processing of new asylum applications from Syrians. Official data indicates that over 100,000 asylum cases were pending across EU countries by the end of October 2024.

In Germany alone, 47,270 Syrian refugees are awaiting decisions on their asylum applications.

Despite the regime change, the situation in Syria remains unstable. A transitional government led by Mohammed al-Bashir was established by the military forces that ousted Assad. However, there are no definitive signs of an organized government or functioning ministries at this critical juncture.

Syria’s future hinges on drafting a new constitution, determining the state's framework, and holding democratic elections to establish new leadership. This would mark the end of 54 years of autocratic rule, starting with Hafez al-Assad’s military coup in 1971 and continuing through his son Bashar’s reign, which began in 2000.

Caution Prevails

In this context, Syrian researcher and director of the Iqtisadi website, Younes al-Karim, told Al-Estiklal that “Syrian refugees, due to their extended stay in Europe and integration, have become part of Europe’s demographic makeup, blending into local communities.”

“Abandoning this investment in Syrian refugees represents a loss for the European economy. Replacing them would require a long period, which Europe currently cannot afford, especially with far-right governments gaining power in several European countries, making alternatives to Syrian refugees unavailable.”

“With hardline stances against accepting refugees emerging in some European countries over the past months, abandoning Syrian refugees now would create a pressing issue,” he added.

“Some skilled Syrian refugees in Europe are closely monitoring the developments in Syria, as caution is key to understanding the nature of the new ruling system. Previous experiences in Iraq, Egypt, and Tunisia showed that stability was often limited to security and did not extend to economic or institutional stability.”

According to al-Karim, “Syria’s current economic conditions are not prepared to accommodate the return of skilled Syrian refugees, who have gained expertise in service sectors. They are unlikely to return for good unless they receive adequate salaries and the necessary infrastructure is in place. Otherwise, their visits would remain short-term.”

German newspapers estimate that 287,000 Syrians are employed in Germany, with many recent arrivals still enrolled in language and integration courses.

Studies show that Syrian refugees who arrived a decade ago are predominantly young, with an average age of 25. They tend to have higher educational qualifications and better employment rates.

“The general sentiment in Germany regarding returning to Syria is complex and depends on many factors specific to refugees and their circumstances. For instance, prolonged bureaucratic procedures for family reunification continue to disrupt stability and cause uncertainty,” Samir al-Khatib, a Syrian refugee in Germany told Al-Estiklal.

“Some refugees have personal reasons encouraging them to return after Assad’s fall, such as a desire to raise their children in their homeland or reunite with relatives and start anew after years of separation, especially those without German citizenship.”

However, al-Khatib emphasized that “a definitive return to Syria remains uncertain. Many people have no homes to go back to, as they are destroyed. The infrastructure is in ruins and would take years to rebuild, not to mention the need for economic recovery, job opportunities, and lasting security.”