How Recent Events in the Middle East Affect Iran's Shiite Influence

With continued Western support for the Israeli state in its conflict against Hezbollah, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and Iran, questions are increasingly being raised about the fate of the Iran-backed Shiite factions that have emerged over the past four decades.

These armed factions reached their peak over the last two decades, particularly following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, which saw them rise to power there, as well as Hezbollah’s consolidation of control over Lebanon and the Houthis' 2014 coup in Yemen that overthrew the legitimate government.

Syria, too, was not immune to this influence. Iran and its Shiite proxies bolstered the regime of the ousted president Bashar al-Assad, ensuring his rule in Syria for 13 years after the popular uprising of 2011. 

However, on December 8, 2024, al-Assad was toppled by the Syrian opposition, ultimately fleeing to Russia.

Eradicating the Disease

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, the leader of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, described Iran's influence in the region as a "disease that has been eradicated," asserting that its removal had prevented a war Iran had been planning.

In an interview with Saudi news channel Al Arabiya, al-Sharaa stated that "the lightning war that toppled al-Assad’s regime has guaranteed the security of Syria, the Gulf, and Turkiye for the next 50 years, while averting a major conflict that the Iranians were orchestrating by pushing Iraq into a confrontation with Israel on Syrian soil."

"Iran’s intervention in the region had common characteristics across Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria: sectarian divisions, rampant corruption in government and public institutions, alongside the proliferation of drugs and the production of Captagon."

"Syria's security directly impacts the security of the broader region. What had been happening was a disease that had plagued the region for the past 40 years, but we managed to remove it in just 11 days," al-Sharaa further noted, referring to Iran’s dominance.

Al-Sharaa’s comments quickly drew responses from the United States, with the U.S. Embassy in Damascus confirming that American officials had met with Syria’s interim authorities and emphasized the need to prevent Iran from re-establishing a foothold in the country, according to a statement from the embassy on December 31, 2024.

The United States has notably supported “Israel” in its efforts to destroy Hezbollah, the Lebanese group that had been backing Gaza’s resistance for many months before withdrawing from the battle and accepting a ceasefire with “Israel.”

On November 26, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that “Israel’s” war on Lebanon had "set Hezbollah back decades."

Meanwhile, the United States and several Western nations have launched continuous airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, targeting the group that has controlled the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, since 2014. 

These strikes are aimed at curbing Houthi influence and removing their involvement in the battle to support Gaza against the Israeli occupation.

Before operation al-Aqsa Flood, the U.S. had shown little opposition to the actions of the Houthis in Yemen. 

The U.S. had pressured to halt the military operations of the Saudi-UAE coalition against the Houthis and advocated for a political settlement to resolve the Yemeni crisis.

However, this stance shifted dramatically with the Houthis' engagement in the battle to support Gaza, which has been facing a U.S.-backed Israeli genocide since October 7, 2024.

Shared Cooperation

In Iraq, the U.S.-Iranian collaboration was strikingly clear. The Americans themselves confirmed that their 2003 invasion of the country was aimed at what they described as the end of "Sunni domination, which had lasted a thousand years," and at handing over power to the Shiites, who had long suffered from "persecution."

After 2003, Washington allowed Iran-backed Shiite forces—many of whom were based in the U.S. and Iran—to take control of key positions within the Iraqi state. 

As a result, Tehran became the primary decision-maker in the country, with the final say in the selection of the three main presidential offices (government, parliament, and the presidency).

Former U.S. civil administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, stated, "When we toppled Saddam Hussein (the former Iraqi president), we also toppled a thousand years of Sunni dominance in Mesopotamia, starting with the Abbasid Caliphate, then the Turks, then the British with the Hashemites, and finally the Hashemite Kingdom."

"The Sunnis had dominated the country for a thousand years, and I believe that this was also wrong," Bremer responded to a question about whether the U.S. was responsible for persecuting Iraqi Sunnis after claiming to have freed the Shiites from oppression in a 2014 television interview.

In 2004, Tehran publicly acknowledged its role in assisting the U.S. in occupying both Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Mohammad Ali Abtahi, then-deputy president under Mohammad Khatami, stated, "Had it not been for Iranian cooperation, Kabul and Baghdad would not have fallen so easily."

In a similar vein, Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, revealed that top American officials held secret talks with Iran prior to the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. These discussions focused on Iraq's future—and were successful.

Khalilzad, in his book The Envoy, wrote, "We wanted a commitment from Iran that it would not fire upon American planes inadvertently crossing Iranian airspace." 

"We also hoped Iran would encourage Iraqi Shiites to participate constructively in the establishment of a new government in Iraq," Khalilzad added, noting that some prominent Iraqi Shiite leaders, who had long opposed Saddam, continued to enjoy support from Iran, the region's leading Shiite power.

Shiite Alliance

Regarding the Shiite dominance over power in several countries across the region, despite being a minority, Yemeni political analyst and writer Yassin al-Tamimi argues that this development is part of "an international regional deal that has enabled the Shiite alliance in the region to dominate key sectors in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon."

In an interview with Al-Estiklal on the day the ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell, al-Tamimi emphasized that "there are significant changes today indicating that this Shiite alliance may have reached the end of its geopolitical mission, which it carried out with distinction, contributing to the fragmentation and weakening of the region."

"The Iranian Axis tried to present itself as a supporter of Gaza, but in light of the events unfolding in Syria today, it has turned into a fully sectarian alliance, rallying to push Syrians back into displacement camps instead of celebrating their return to their homeland."

"A large part of the Houthi strength in Yemen has been due to the massive supply shipments and direct or indirect support provided by the Shiite alliance, including the attacks (in recent years) on Eastern Saudi Arabia and its deep interior," al-Tamimi noted.

An indication that the West might abandon its support for the Shiite factions in the region—support that helped them seize power in several Arab countries—was highlighted by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham’s statement. 

Graham claimed that "The religious doctrines of the Shiites in charge [of Iran] compel them to kill all the Jews. That's not what Islam teaches most Muslims, but they believe it." as reported by Reason magazine on November 21, 2024.

"Graham compared his vision to the ‘generation-plus’ struggle to reshape Germany and Japan after World War II. He held up photos of atomic bombings in Japan as an example of what victory took back then, and insinuated that Nazi Germany was not as bad as Hamas. In the process, Graham appeared to declare holy war on Shiism, the denomination that 10 percent of Muslims around the world belong to," Reason noted.

With the success of the Iranian Revolution in toppling the monarchy and the assumption of power by the religious movement in 1979, led by the Shiite cleric Ruhollah Khomeini with support from France, where he had been residing, the Shiite minority in the Middle East experienced a resurgence—especially after Khomeini’s declaration of the exportation of the revolution to other countries.

Before Khomeini’s rise to power in Iran, the Shiite community in the region lacked prominent political movements or armed militias, aside from Lebanon’s Amal Movement, led by the cleric Musa al-Sadr, which represented the Shiite sect in a country where every sect had its own political parties and armed factions.

However, with the Iranian regime’s focus on exporting what it termed the "Islamic Revolution" (Shiism), the 1980s saw the emergence of Iraq’s Islamic Dawa Party led by Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, and the formation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, under the leadership of Subhi al-Tufayli.

In parallel, during this period, Iran forged an alliance with Syria under President Hafez al-Assad—who belonged to the Shiite Alawite minority—and, along with Dawa and Hezbollah parties, supported Iran during its war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988.