How Does the United States Intervene and Monitor the Elections in Turkiye?

As Turkiye prepares to mark the 100th anniversary of its republic next year, voters will head to the polls on May 14 to elect their next president in a pivotal moment for the nation’s future.

The date is symbolic: On May 14, 1950, the Democrat Party (DP) of Adnan Menderes ended the one-party rule that had dominated Turkiye since its founding in 1923.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been in power since 2003, faces a tough challenge from a diverse opposition that hopes to capitalize on the economic and social woes that have increased in the last two years.

One of the key issues that will shape Turkiye’s next century is its relationship with the United States, which has been fraught with tensions over a range of economic, political, and security matters.

Despite their differences, Turkiye remains a vital ally for the U.S. in a volatile region, and both countries have an interest in maintaining cooperation.

The outcome of the Turkish elections will have significant implications for the bilateral ties between Ankara and Washington, as well as for the stability and prosperity of the Middle East and beyond.

 

Open Support

The Turkish newspaper Aydinlik reported that the U.S. is worried in areas that hold its interests and influence.

This comes at a time when the United States has not succeeded in achieving what it desires in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The alliance of Turkiye’s six opposition parties sees Washington’s way to provoke a confrontation between Turkiye and Russia in Syria, the Black Sea, and Central Asia.

Hence, the U.S. has not been reluctant to show public support for Turkiye’s opposition and announce its desire to topple Erdogan.

Last month, U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeffry Flake visited Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Erdogan’s opponent in the presidential elections.

Erdogan criticized the visit and said: “In the upcoming elections, we have to teach the United States a lesson.”

“[U.S. President Joe] Biden is speaking from there, and his ambassador is here, what is he doing? He goes to visit Kemal [Kilicdaroglu], it’s shameful,” he added in a public speech last week.

Erdogan called on the U.S. ambassador not to exceed his limit and to commit to the duties of his position.

Previously, in February, the U.S. Embassy in Ankara invited the opposition parties to a trilateral meeting in a hotel, attended by a number of diplomats working at the embassy and the most important leaders of the conflicting parties in the opposition.

Local media circulated information indicating that U.S. embassy diplomats also organized another meeting in the same place that included Kemal Kilicdaroglu and the leaders of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, which represents the Kurds on the Turkish political scene.

According to media sources, in this meeting, it was agreed that the HDP would be one of the components of the opposition alliance front during the next sensitive stage.

Previously, in 2019, when asked about Erdogan, then U.S. candidate for presidency Joe Biden called Erdogan an “autocrat,” criticized his policy toward the Kurds, and urged support for the Turkish opposition.

“I think we should take a very different approach to it now by making clear that we support the opposition leadership,” the then-Democratic candidate said.

 

Calling for Assistance

The Turkish opposition leader has hired a renowned American economist as his chief adviser on industrial transformation, stirring up controversy in a country that has long been wary of Western influence.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, announced last December that he had appointed Jeremy Rifkin, an economic and social theorist who has advised several European leaders, to lead his team of experts on reshaping Turkiye’s economy.

The team also includes Daron Acemoglu, a Turkish–American professor at MIT who is known for his research on the role of institutions in economic development.

Rifkin, who has written several books on topics such as the impact of technology, climate change, and globalization on society, served as an adviser to the French government during its presidency of the European Union in 2008.

He has also worked with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates, and Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa.

The move by Kilicdaroglu drew sharp criticism from some quarters in Turkiye, where many see Western powers as meddling in their domestic affairs and undermining their sovereignty.

Some critics accused Kilicdaroglu of wanting to restore Western hegemony over Turkiye, which has pursued a more independent and assertive foreign policy under Erdogan.

Erdogan himself dismissed Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s choice of advisers, saying that those who rely on imported economic commissioners instead of focusing on Turkiye’s own economic program cannot lead the future of this country.

More recently, in March, a team of social media experts from Benenson Strategy Group arrived in Turkiye to aid the opposition in their electoral race.

“They had come before. They were in Istanbul before the general elections of June 7, 2015, and the local elections of March 31, 2019,” Turkish writer Zafir Sahin wrote.

“For some reason, this team, which had Obama elected President twice by signing the most successful social media campaigns in history, has a special interest in Turkiye,” he added.

According to the information given by my news source, who has done both theoretical and practical studies on social media, 6 of Obama’s 12-person social media team have been in Istanbul for a while.

With the 9 servers they brought with them, they settled in one of the 5-star hotels around Taksim and started working.

 

U.S. Interests

American interests differ from Erdogan’s orientations, which caused a tense relationship between them, which reached America’s public declaration of support for the Turkish opposition and its desire to remove Erdogan from power.

According to researcher Muhammad Ayoub, China’s mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran added a new number to the new equation in the Middle East, which includes Russia and Turkiye, in addition to the three countries mentioned, especially since Turkiye welcomed this Chinese mediation.

In a talk to Independence, the researcher noted that the increase in the Russian–Turkish alliance and Erdogan’s rapprochement with Putin poses a threat to America’s interests in the Caucasus and East Asia regions and represents a violation of the sanctions imposed on those countries.

Turkiye has also begun to strengthen its defense and industrial space strongly, in addition to its military expansion in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, which contradicts the orientation of the United States in the region, which wants to remain a single player in it.

Erdogan’s intransigence in approving Finland and Sweden’s application to join NATO is an obstacle for a large NATO country like Turkiye.

All these things prompted America to play the election card and pressure and influence the Turkish street in order to remove Erdogan from power, and its military base in America represented a starting point and logistical support for the 2016 coup, something that the U.S. government has not recognized until now.

The F-16 deal between the United States and Turkiye was disrupted, and Turkiye purchased the S-400 missile system from its Russian ally, much to America’s chagrin, and its effects are still crumbling today.