Historic Loss: Why Did Erdogan's Party Decline in the Municipal Elections?

In a turn of events that defied expectations, Turkiye's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) faced a significant setback in the recent local elections.

The initial results revealed a substantial decline in support for the AKP, marking a resounding defeat as the Republican People's Party (CHP) surged ahead, securing control not only of several major cities but also expanding its influence by winning additional cities and provinces.

This sweeping victory for the CHP, which came as a shock to many, signifies a pivotal shift in Turkiye's political landscape.

Historic Loss

The results indicate a historic moment for the CHP as it led the polls and surpassed the AKP for the first time since the latter's inception, garnering 37.5% of the vote.

The AKP, on the other hand, found itself in an unfamiliar second place, receiving 35.6% of the vote, while the Welfare Party trailed in third with 6.1%.

The CHP's triumph was evident as it clinched the mayorship in 36 cities and governorates, including 15 major cities and 21 governorates.

The AKP managed to secure victories in 23 locales, comprising 11 major cities and 12 governorates.

The Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party, succeeding the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party, won in 10 municipalities, including three major cities and seven governorates.

The National Movement Party took charge of eight governorates, the Welfare Party succeeded in two, one being a major city, and the Good Party prevailed in one governorate municipality.

This election has significantly altered the distribution of power among Turkiye's municipalities.

The CHP, as the principal opposition party, increased its hold from 20 to 36 municipalities, while the AKP's share plummeted from 39 to 23.

Similarly, its ally, the National Movement, saw a reduction from 11 to 8. Both the Welfare Party and the New Party made gains, with the former retaining its positions and the latter securing municipal presidencies for the first time.

The Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party also increased its count from 8 to 10 municipalities.

Furthermore, the CHP achieved a majority in the municipal councils of Ankara and Istanbul, cities previously governed by the AKP-led Republican Alliance. Despite losing the mayoral seats in these municipalities to the opposition, the CHP's advance is a testament to its growing influence.

In the district municipalities within major cities, the CHP's presence in Ankara rose dramatically from 3 to 16 out of 25, while the AKP's representation fell from 19 to 8.

In Istanbul, the CHP's tally soared from 14 to 26, as the AKP's count dropped from 24 to 13 out of 39 sub-municipalities.

The CHP's progress is not only clear but also comprehensive, marking a stark contrast to the presidential and legislative elections held just 10 months prior, which yielded different outcomes.

This surprising turn of events for the AKP, which had consistently won every electoral contest since its establishment in 2001, calls for an in-depth analysis of the factors and reasons behind this unexpected result.

Mounting Criticism

In a reflective analysis of the electoral defeat, the enduring and emerging factors come to light.

 The Justice and Development Party, along with its recent administrations, faces mounting criticism over the nation's worsening economic plight.

Despite various governmental strategies, the electorate remains unconvinced of their efficacy for the foreseeable future.

Particularly discontented are the retirees, who express discontent with their pensions and the government's nominal increases.

Additionally, there's a perceived stagnation within the party and its governance—a common trait among long-standing ruling entities.

Notably, the party has undergone ideological, rhetorical, and political shifts since its inception, including alterations in its alliances.

These factors were not only prevalent in the preceding elections but also central to the party's dwindling legislative vote share over the past decade.

However, the high stakes of punitive voting — potentially elevating the opposition to presidential or parliamentary majority — led some voters to defer their discontent to the more recent local elections.

The outcome of these local contests sent a resounding, stark message to the Justice and Development Party from its electorate and supporters: the imperative to heed the public's sentiment and align with it—a point consistently underscored by Erdogan.

Looking ahead, the results signal caution for the 2028 presidential and legislative elections. A potential presidential contender is Ekrem Imamoglu, the Mayor of Greater Istanbul.

This is particularly noteworthy as the ruling party might enter the race without Erdogan, who has been their electoral linchpin in all prior contests.

With four years at their disposal, Erdogan and his party are tasked with restoring the trust of their voters and gearing up for the 2028 elections.

Success hinges on their commitment to heeding calls for substantive, genuine reforms rather than superficial changes.

Pressing Issues

Erdogan, once hailed as a champion for the non-privileged, is now accused of becoming increasingly detached from society's lower strata, surrounded by a coterie of yes-men.

This detachment has severed the vital communication link between the party's grassroots and its leadership.

The role of an independent and impartial media as a conduit for dialogue between society's different layers has been stifled, with allegations that the media has been co-opted by business interests and partisan journalism, further isolating the government from public sentiment.

Amidst these developments, according to political researcher Osama Fouad, pressing social issues have been left to fester. Notably, the management of stray animals, a problem linked to tragic incidents involving children, remains unresolved.

"Despite promises to adopt Western models to address the issue, Erdogan has faced internal opposition from those who prioritize animal welfare over child safety," Fouad said during his interview with Al-Estiklal.

The plight of thousands of families affected by early marriage has gone unaddressed, and controversial legal decisions have sparked debate over the protection of women's rights versus traditional family values.

"Meanwhile, the youth enjoy unfettered sexual freedom, highlighting a societal double standard that penalizes conservative practices while endorsing liberal ones," Fouad says.

"On the policy front, while significant strides have been made in areas like defense, other sectors such as agriculture, food, and health remain tethered to globalist agendas," he added.

Fouad says that the construction of large hospitals is a superficial solution, the neglect of preventive healthcare has led to an overreliance on hospitalization.

"The economic management under figures like Mehmet Simsek, likened to an unofficial IMF representative, has faced resistance to reforms that could potentially alleviate the situation," Fouad concluded.

The narrative paints a picture of a nation at a crossroads, grappling with the consequences of its leaders' choices and the need for a recalibration of its social and economic compass.