‘Help Me with Gaza, I Help You with Ethiopia’: How Trump Manipulates His Favorite Dictator

In a statement from the White House in early February 2025, regarding President Donald Trump's call with head of the Egyptian regime Abdel Fattah el-Sisi after the proposal “to relocate” Palestinians, it was notable that the two leaders also discussed the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

The U.S. statement mentioned that Trump and Sisi discussed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, while the Egyptian statement referred to “cooperation in the field of water security,” without mentioning the dam.

Media reports have connected President Donald Trump's renewed focus on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam—opposed by Egypt due to concerns over future Nile water supplies—to his request for the head of the Egyptian regime Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to accept “the relocation” of Gaza Palestinians to Egypt. This has raised speculation about a potential exchange or the dam being used as leverage to pressure Egypt.

‘Renaissance for Gaza’

Trump might have offered to mediate again between Egypt and Ethiopia to resolve the dam crisis, especially since he had already facilitated negotiations during his first term in office, Egyptian sources told Al-Estiklal.

Trump played a mediation role in 2019 and 2020, hosting negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia in Washington, under the auspices of the U.S. Treasury Secretary. However, those talks ultimately failed.

The sources were surprised by Trump's renewed discussion of the dam, given that the construction was completed and the issue had become a fait accompli. They suggested that the aim could be to offer incentives to Sisi to agree to the relocation of Palestinians to Egypt, in exchange for avoiding the risks of drought that Egypt feared due to the lack of an agreement with Ethiopia on the dam's filling rules.

Trump mediated talks between Egypt and Ethiopia over the dam's filling and operation rules, but the negotiations collapsed in early 2020 due to Ethiopia's intransigence. On October 23, 2020, Trump said Ethiopia violated the agreement, and he decided to cut off funding for them.

“I had a deal done for them and then unfortunately Ethiopia broke the deal, which they should not have done. That was a big mistake.”

“They will never see that money unless they adhere to that agreement,” he added.

Israeli newspapers have confirmed that Trump may have indeed traded the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue with Sisi in exchange for the relocation of Gaza's population.

Trump said he could resolve the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue in exchange for relocating Gaza's residents to Sinai, using the dam as leverage to persuade Sisi to approve the relocation plan, according to Maariv.

During the recent call between Trump and Sisi, the U.S. president proposed helping Sisi save the Nile River from drought, should he agree to the plan to “relocate” Gaza's residents to Egypt.

Trump’s approach was simple: “Help me, and I will help you.” The report added that Trump hinted to his Egyptian counterpart that America could save Egypt from the Nile drought, but there was a price for this, and it was to be found in Gaza.

Sudan’s former ambassador to Washington, Khadr Haroun, confirmed to The New Arab on February 5, 2025, that deals and exchanges were a hallmark of Trump, who had long described himself as a “dealmaker.”

“The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue has little left to negotiate, as the fifth and final filling of the dam has already taken place, and the only remaining concerns for Sudan and Egypt are the lack of a binding agreement,” he said.

It was reported that before Trump's presidency, his envoys had signaled to Cairo about the possibility of resuming mediation to resolve the dam crisis with a written agreement between the three parties: Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, taking into account everyone's concerns and needs.

Addis Standard expressed concern over reports that Egypt was preparing a detailed report on the dam to present to the Trump administration, hoping to reopen discussions on the issue that Trump had mediated during his first term.

Ethiopia has shown interest in reports that Egypt is updating its file on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in coordination with Sudan, aiming to open a new path for addressing the crisis through the new Trump administration, according to The New Arab on December 13, 2025.

According to Addis Standard, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation was instructed to update its documents regarding the damage caused to Egypt by the dam operations, including financial data on desalination projects conducted over four years to mitigate the expected impact of the dam.

The report highlighted Egypt's concerns about the dam’s operation and its potential to reduce the flow of the Nile, which provides Egypt with up to 98% of its water needs, and the substantial financial costs Egypt has incurred to address water shortages.

This move to involve the Trump administration comes a few months after Egypt formally protested at the United Nations Security Council about Ethiopia’s continued filling of the dam for the fifth consecutive year.

Egyptian military expert Samir Farag said on RT on November 9, 2024, that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was one of two people in the world who wished Trump had lost the election.

Farag attributed this to Ethiopia's withdrawal from the final signing session of the binding agreement on the dam in Washington in 2020, after learning of Trump's electoral defeat to Joe Biden.

The Dam’s Destruction

During his first term, before the dam’s completion, President Donald Trump suggested in October 2020 that Egypt might resort to military action to address the dispute over the dam.

“They [Egypt] will end up blowing up the dam,” Trump said. “And I said it and I say it loud and clear [..] they’ll blow up that dam. And they have to do something.”

This caused significant confusion in Egypt and criticism in Ethiopia, with many Egyptians and Ethiopians at the time believing it was an “American green light” for military action and the destruction of the dam, which blocked billions of cubic meters of Nile water to Egypt.

This was followed by Trump’s request for the State Department to suspend millions of dollars in aid to Ethiopia because of the dam dispute, angering Ethiopians who accused the U.S. of encouraging Egypt to fight them, according to the Associated Press.

Trump also began his second term by halting funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development, forcing Ethiopia, the largest recipient of the agency's donations (1.2 billion dollars), to lay off all of its employees and contractors funded by the U.S., totaling 5,000 people.

At the time, Trump's comments about Egypt potentially attacking the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam were understood in two ways:

The first: It was seen as a possible green light from Trump to head of the Egyptian regime el-Sisi, urging Egypt to strike the dam, disrupt its operation, and force Ethiopia into negotiations that would accept Egypt’s conditions and an international agreement on filling the dam, after Ethiopia had angered Trump by rejecting his mediation.

The second: There was speculation that Egypt may have secretly informed the U.S., or threatened to strike the dam, but Trump exposed Egypt's intentions, thwarting the plan with his statements about Cairo bombing the Ethiopian dam.

In other words, Trump's remarks were seen as a misleading invitation to abort Egypt’s plan to damage the dam, especially since several Egyptian politicians and media figures accused Trump of not fully committing to resolving the dam crisis.

They criticized his failure to pressure Ethiopia into accepting the agreement he brokered with Egypt, suggesting that he was lenient with Addis Ababa due to Ethiopia’s support for the U.S. in the fight against the Shabaab Mujahideen in Somalia.

Ethiopia has unilaterally filled the dam five times between 2021 and 2024 without an agreement with the downstream countries, which angered Cairo, though Egypt did not openly express this anger despite frequent statements from officials that filling the dam was a “red line.”

The completion and filling of the massive dam presented Egypt with a strategic dilemma, as Ethiopia gained the upper hand in controlling the Nile’s water flow, giving it the ability to withhold water—potentially disrupting Egypt’s agriculture and industry.

Israeli Occupation’s Role

In what appears to be a response to Egypt's moves to appeal to the Trump administration, despite the alleged blackmail involving displacement for the dam, Ethiopia began to forge ties with “Israel” in water and energy sectors, which could pose further threats to Egypt.

In February 2025, Ethiopia and “Israel” signed a memorandum of understanding in Addis Ababa aimed at strengthening cooperation in water resources and energy development. Observers see this as a response from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Egypt's moves concerning the dam and Somalia.

Addis Ababa views Egypt’s collaboration with Trump as an attempt to reduce Ethiopia's influence in the Horn of Africa, where Egypt has been strengthening ties with Somalia by offering support in an effort to pressure Ethiopia on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations.

The memorandum of understanding aims to develop cooperation between Ethiopia and “Israel” in key areas, including the exploration and extraction of groundwater, wastewater treatment technologies, and the development of renewable energy projects.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen praised the agreement, stating that it provides Israeli institutions with a valuable opportunity to participate in capacity building and knowledge exchange with Ethiopia.

Cohen emphasized that this cooperation would significantly contribute to strengthening local capacities in Ethiopia's water and energy sectors, pointing out that “Israel possesses advanced expertise in water and energy technologies.”

Observers believe that this agreement with “Israel” could enhance Ethiopia's position in the face of external pressures and future negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, especially if Trump calls for their resumption.

For “Israel,” this agreement represents an effort to exert pressure on Egypt and expand its influence in the Horn of Africa, a region that is attracting growing interest from global powers.