Conditional Deal: Will the UK Tear Up the Balfour Declaration and Recognize a Palestinian State?

The UK intends to recognize a Palestinian state next September unless “Israel” takes concrete steps to allow aid into the Gaza Strip, commit to a two-state solution, and refrain from annexing the occupied West Bank.

Public pressure and the ongoing genocide in Gaza have been the impetus for the current Labour government to rectify the historic mistake committed by former UK leader Arthur Balfour more than a century ago when he promised Jews a national homeland in Palestine.

The Independent reported that PM Keir Starmer is under increasing pressure from within his party to recognize a Palestinian state, which has intensified since France announced that its recognition will be at the UN General Assembly next month.

These developments indicate a growing international consensus, even among Israel's traditional allies, regarding the need for fundamental change in light of the ongoing Israeli aggression on Gaza, coupled with a rejection of any plan that includes the establishment of a Palestinian state.

This latest UK move was met with predictable condemnation from “Israel” and the U.S., and was criticized by some who see it as a largely symbolic and ineffective gesture.

Others said the UK’s announcement uses the Palestinians' inalienable right to self-determination as a stick with which to beat “Israel”.

Conditional Recognition

After prolonged hesitation and mounting public pressure, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced on July 29 that his country would recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly next month if the Gaza crisis was not resolved.

These developments follow a marked shift in the UK government's position, which had previously focused on improving the situation on the ground for civilians, without addressing the issue of recognition.

The UK’s position represented a political balancing act between pressure from the public, which strongly supports Palestine, and domestic pressure from ministers and MPs demanding a decisive stance, as well as Israel's crossing of all red lines in its war on Gaza.

In turn, Starmer made clear in a statement that “Palestine recognition would not be merely symbolic, but must lead to real change on the ground.”

He said that the Israeli government must take substantive steps to end the horrific situation in Gaza and confirm that it has no intention of annexing territories in the occupied West Bank.

At the same time, he stressed the need for Hamas to meet key conditions, such as the release of hostages, acceptance of a ceasefire, and disarmament.

“We are committed to recognizing a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace process leading to a two-state solution, with a secure and stable Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state,” he affirmed.

He noted that the timing of this move is intended to influence the situation on the ground in Gaza, at a time when the prospects for a two-state solution are under serious threat.

Successive UK governments have previously affirmed that they will formally recognize a Palestinian state when the time is right, without specifying a timetable or the necessary conditions.

Last week, 255 members of Parliament from nine political parties signed a letter addressed to Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy, urging them to recognize a Palestinian state.

Starmer's announcement that he would shift his foreign policy toward recognizing a Palestinian state was widely welcomed by Labour MPs.

Labour MP Sarah Champion said the move would put pressure on Israel and make clear that its actions are no longer acceptable.

Emily Thornberry, chair of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, said she was pleased with the decision after her committee authored a punchy report last week calling for recognition.

Business minister Gareth Thomas described the decision as a political judgment after a group of peers warned it could be in contravention of international law.

For his part, Jeremy Corbyn, a member of the House of Commons, stated that the almost daily million-strong demonstrations taking place in the UK are putting increasing pressure on the Labour government, especially in light of the horrific scenes of starvation in Gaza.

He stressed that there is no excuse for delaying recognition of a Palestinian state, calling on the Starmer government to take immediate action without conditions.

Political Maneuvering

Although the UK government's conditions appear strict, some have criticized Starmer's recent announcement as a political maneuver, using Palestinian rights as leverage over Tel Aviv.

Some 38 members of the House of Lords recently warned Starmer’s pledge to recognise Palestine may breach international law as the territory may not meet the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention, a treaty signed in 1933.

“Recognition of the state of Palestine should not be used as a bargaining chip. It should have happened months ago,” wrote Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey on X.

“We need far greater action to stop the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, including fully ceasing arms sales and implementing sanctions against the Israeli cabinet,” he added.

For his part, Reform Party leader Nigel Farage considered the UK's recognition of a Palestinian state to be a reward for Hamas.

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch described Starmer's announcement as a bad political posturing, noting that the time is not right for it.

“Recognising a Palestinian state won't bring the hostages home, won't end the war and won't get aid into Gaza,” she wrote on X.

On the international level, US President Donald Trump stated that he does not believe Hamas should be rewarded by recognizing Palestinian independence.

He noted that he did not discuss the idea of recognizing a Palestinian state when he met with Starmer this week, but said he would not mind London taking a position on the issue.

In the strongest condemnation yet from the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Starmer was clumsy for vowing to recognise Palestine before Hamas releases the remaining hostages taken during the October 7 attacks.

The Israeli response was furious, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu describing the British announcement as a reward for Hamas and a punishment for Israeli victims.

In turn, the UK government rejected all domestic and international criticism of its future plans regarding the Palestinian issue.

Transport Minister Heidi Alexander stated that the decision to recognize a Palestinian state is not merely a political gesture but rather aims to ensure it comes at a time that achieves maximum impact, denying that it is also a reward for Hamas.

Strategic Change

The UK believes that Palestine recognition could be a practical means of pressure that could lead to concrete steps by the Israeli government, ranging from increasing the flow of aid to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to reviving the political process toward a two-state solution.

The recent positions on recognizing a Palestinian state come amid escalating threats by the far-right Israeli government to undermine the two-state solution by annexing the West Bank and reoccupying the Gaza Strip, in addition to its repeated rejection of any peace initiatives and settlements.

Last month, Israel’s parliament endorsed a resolution opposing any future Palestinian state, a move that further distances Tel Aviv from the two-state solution framework once endorsed by the Oslo Accords.

“Israel” may also be moving toward dismantling the Palestinian Authority as a strategic option to obstruct any international recognition of it, as it is the only body capable of representing the Palestinians at the legal and international levels.

On the other hand, observers believe that the UK decision—even if symbolic—carries significant diplomatic and moral weight.

They noted that it could lead to upgrading the level of Palestinian representation in London from a diplomatic mission to an embassy, as well as the possibility of opening a British embassy to the Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank.

Former diplomats also believe that the decision could force London to reevaluate its relations with Tel Aviv, including the possibility of banning the import of settlement products, even if this step would have a symbolic impact on the Israeli economy.

Regarding the repercussions of the decision on security and military cooperation between the UK and “Israel”, the situation remains unclear.

Dr. Laith Nasrawin, a Professor of Constitutional Law, told Al-Estiklal that the significance of British recognition lies specifically in the fact that Britain was the mandatory power over Palestine between 1920 and 1948, and was responsible for issuing the Balfour Declaration, which paved the way for the establishment of the so-called “State of Israel”.

“Therefore, British recognition can be interpreted as an acknowledgment of a historical shortcoming and a correction of a political and legal path that has lasted for more than a century,” he added.

“The increasing number of countries recognizing a Palestinian state will push toward changing its current status, granted by the UN General Assembly in 2012 as a non-member observer state,” he said.

Dr. Nasrawin hinted that the most important legal effect of these recognitions is that they will contribute to consolidating a new international description of Palestine as a state under occupation, requiring support for its independence.

On December 4, 2024, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for an end to the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Currently, 147 out of 193 UN member states recognize Palestine as a state