“Repeated Play"; What Does The Assad Regime's Announcement Mean For Presidential Elections?

In a move that contradicted all political assessment by postponing it on a proactive date; there are only a few days since the Syrian regime held presidential elections, where Syrians describe it as a “the repeated play”, being determined by the results, Bashar al-Assad is given an illegal presidential term until 2028.

The Syrian regime's parliament has set May 26, 2021, as the date for the presidential elections, it will be based on the 2012 constitution, which was designed according to Bashar al-Assad.

According to article 88 of the Constitution referred to, the President cannot be elected for more than two terms, each of them seven years ago, but Article 155 makes it clear that these articles do not apply to Assad, only as of the last 2014 presidential election.

Some also believe that all the conditions of the 2012 Constitution do not apply mainly to opponents living abroad, who originally reject the idea of nominating only under the sponsor of the United Nations, after the implementation of the relevant resolutions, particularly Resolution 2254, which paves the way for the map of a political solution in Syria.

The 2012 Constitution stipulates that those wishing to nominate for president have lived continuously in Syria for the past 10 years.

To accept the nomination of any of them, the candidate needs the support of at least 35 members of Assad's parliament, controlled by the ruling Baath Party.

Comic Play

In this consideration, the opposition Syrian National Coalition, in a statement dated April 19, 2021, described the Syrian regime's elections as a comic play.

The opposition coalition confirmed that these elections have no legal, legitimacy or political value, the only acceptable election option in Syria is for Bashar al-Assad not to be a part of it.

The coalition requested the international community to take action to force the regime to engage in a political solution in accordance with Security Council resolutions, through a transitional governing council with full administrative powers.

Bashar Hafez al-Assad presented on April 21, 2021, by applying for the post of President of the Republic, the application became the sixth nomination request received by the Supreme Constitutional Court in the alleged presidential elections.

Although Assad will not face serious competition for his position, his Parliament announced that the Supreme Constitutional Court had received applications for the post of President of the Republic.

However, at the end of the deadline for submitting applications set for April 28, 2021, to get the support of 35 members of Assad's parliament, according to the constitution, he will become a “presidential nominee”.

Bashar was inherited from power in 2000 after the death of his father Hafez, Assad is expected to win a seven-year period, in a play similar to his victory in the two previous states, with a vote rate of 97% in 2007, and 88% in 2014.

It is remarkable that Bashar was the only nominee for office in 2007, when he ran for election in 2014, the country was in a state of popular revolution against his rule, and allowed for fake multiparty elections, it is the first era Syria has seen since his father's era.

The 2014 elections were the first to which two nominees were allowed to participate; they were not popularly known personalities.

At the time, the nominee Hassan al-Nouri received 500,279 votes, or 4%, and the nominee Maher al-Hajjar received 372,301 votes with 3.2%.

Talk of Delay

The media intensified in March 2021, reports and analysis on the possibility of Russia delay the presidential elections in Syria, and waiting in conducting it, considering that it would be an obstruction of any political solution, it comes amid difficult internal economic conditions for Syrians in Assad's areas of control.

In addition to a categorical international rejection from Washington and the EU, represented by France's submission of a document as a "group of similar thinking", its goal is to reject any presidential elections in Syria, outside security council resolution 2254, he obstructed “the normalization” with Assad after the elections.

On March 19, 2021, acting U.S. Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Jeffrey DeLaurentis said that President Joe Biden's administration will not recognize the election results in Syria, if the vote is not conducted under the sponsor of the United Nations, and the view of “the entire Syrian society” is taken into consideration.

This is what the president and founder of the Jusoor Center for Studies, Muhammad Sarmini, said in a statement to “Al-Estiklal”: “I do not find that the presidential elections and their expected results will greatly affect the path of the Syrian issue, especially since the elections in which Russia was unable to marketing anything new from the participation of the opposition or the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), or regional or international control, even in the form that Russia accepts”.

This is the second presidential election since the Syrian revolution broke out in March 2011.

The first elections were held in 2014, the Syrian opposition described it at the period as undemocratic and illegal, the result was also rejected by the USA and the EU as well.

Dr. Ibrahim Al-Jabawi, a member of the Syrian Opposition's High Negotiations Committee, describes the elections as a "fake play", it is preparate and directed by Russia, which is undemocratic, unfair and therefore illegal, because the one who is legislating these elections is the Syrian people, “Half of them are forcibly displaced and outside the regime's control”.

Al-Jabawi said in a statement to “Al-Estiklal” that “Anyone who runs from within the Syrian regime to nominate against Bashar al-Assad is a formal nominee, as was the case in 2014, they will not get votes and the fate of the citizens vote will be for him by threats and arrests.

Ready-Made Lists

“These elections will be held as programmed by Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran”, said a member of the High Negotiations Committee.

So, we'll see that nominal voter lists are ready for those who are alive to the dead, even those outside the country, voting cards will be placed in the boxes under their names to tell the system that it won 99%, according to said.

And he added: “The Syrian regime resorted to the option of elections at the command of Russia, after the Ukraine problem between Russia and the USA worsened”.

So, Moscow wanted to send a message to Washington, by instructing the Syrian regime to announce the elections one month ahead of schedule, which was scheduled for the end of June 2021.

Al-Jabawi considered that “Assad has no electoral program, except for more franchises and concessions to the Russian and Iranian occupiers, because he can't offer a loaf of bread and fuel, and any of the elements of life for the Syrian people, but they want to rule the ruins of Syria, destroying and displacing what is left, and achieving demographic change”.

As far as the Syrian Constitutional Committee is concerned, Al-Jabawi explained that “The first meeting of the Committee in a year and a half, it is still in place and has not accomplished a single letter, due to the disarrangement of the regime delegation, and procrastination and lack of serious participation in the work of the Constitutional Committee”.

He explained: “Assad is aware that if the new Syrian constitution is completed before the presidential elections, it will undoubtedly be out of this election, that is why they disarranged the work of the Commission, to reach the period of this election”.

Negotiating Papers

On how Bashar al-Assad will invest in holding presidential elections with Russian support, in light of a clear international and regional contradiction on the Syrian issue, Maan Talaa, manager of research at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, said: “The Syrian regime has not cancelled any electoral entitlement at the three levels (local, parliamentary and presidential) in the past years”.

This is about the fact that the regime cannot change any agenda on the state calendar, according to Talaa in a statement to “Al-Estiklal”.

Any change in this agenda would be a recognition of the legitimacy of a political solution in Geneva, “This is what the Syrian regime thinks is a free opportunity to give to the international community”.

Therefore, he is himself effort to implement these entitlements, and to make all the political process and all actors affected by the transmission of these entitlements, and put the political landscape in front of a new variable, and that he will be president of Syria until 2028 under these elections, thus strengthening his negotiating papers during the next phase.

According to researcher Maan Talaa, Bashar al-Assad is trying to achieve a set of objectives from holding the presidential elections: First, to make elections an opportunity to show legitimacy to the international community, to re-examine the extent of public obedience to him on this occasion.

Second: keeping the entitlements of the Syrian state unchanged, due to pressure from the political process, or from the actors in the Syrian file.

But many observers of the Syrian issue believe that the presidential elections, and Bashar al-Assad's deceived victory, will keep the Syrian file in a state of failure to progress and obstruct the political solution.

He said: “Bashar al-Assad's presidential election cannot be seen as a political obstruction of a solution in Syria”, considering that obstruction exists from the regime, and has not seriously engaged in all the entitlements of the political process, from the Geneva negotiations to the Constitutional Committee meetings on its fifth round.

The researcher at the Omran Center pointed out that “The Assad regime is seeking this election to be a clinical death of decisions 2254, so that the country's constitution was not fulfilled, but jumped over all these things with Russian support and international carelessness, represented by they are not ready for a solution in Syria and they are relaxed mind to support it formality”.