What's Behind the Delivery of Three Russian Aircraft from Israel to Syria?

In a historic precedent that first occurred since the occupation of the Palestinian territories in 1948,  three Russian aircraft coming from Israel's Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv landed in Syria in just a week, it settled at the Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia.

At the end of April 2021, Flight tracking sites monitored that all Russian aircraft that had arrived in Tel Aviv was coming from the Russian capital Moscow, to continue its way the same day to Khmeimim Airport, which is taken by the Russian forces as their headquarters in Syria.

Israeli journalist Avi Scharf tweeted on April 27, 2021, “A Russian plane took off from Tel Aviv to Latakia, and there is another direct flight from there to the same destination three days from today”.

“The war zone”, a military analysis specialist website, monitored the expansion of the base's two main runways, on February 5, 2021, and said that satellite images obtained at the site of Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria shows continued work to expand one of its main runways by about 1,000 feet (305 meters).

That would allow for the support of more regular deployments of larger and more loaded aircraft, he said, including heavy air cranes and even potential bombers.

In 2017, Moscow signed a new long-term lease for the Air Base for 49 years, in addition to a similar contract in the port of Tartus, the President of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, presented it to the Russians.

Several Indications

Flights from Israel have raised questions about their implications, especially since this comes less than a month before the presidential election, which the Syrian regime plans to conduct on May 20, 2021, also following reports that the regime might resort to normalization with Israel.

Syrian military and strategic expert Colonel Ahmed Hammad said: “A hotline has been set up between Khmeimim and Tel Aviv, since the first day of Russian military and direct entry into Syria for the Assad regime, there was coordination between the two parties, and the Russian side was informed of the time of the Israeli raids before they occurred”.

Hammad said in an interview with “Al-Estiqlal”: “Today's flights reflect a new coordination, and maybe it aims to create relations between the regime and Israel, because the Russians are interested in stabilizing their situation in Syria, and ensure the security of their forces, so that they can invest in Syria in all respects, the Israeli gate is a global lever for them”.

And he also said: “The Russians may be looking to lift the sanctions imposed on the regime through this door, I do not rule out that there will be public relations after secret relations, as with what happened with Arab countries printed with the occupation entity”.

According to him, former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barbandi said: “The movement of Russian aircraft between Tel Aviv and Latakia carries many points of view and analysis, although all are aimed at helping the regime, Russian ideas and the price the regime will pay remain unclear.

Speaking to reporters on April 30, 2021, Barbandi said: “That the movement of flight if they carry the task of normalizing between the Assad regime and Israel, this is not possible with Iran”.

In addition, if Tel Aviv wants normalization with Assad, it will set conditions, most notably forgetting the “Occupied Golan” file, and get Iran out of Syria or even contain its influence, this is something that not Assad or the Russians can do or pledge.

The other thing, according to the former Syrian diplomat, is that the Movement of Russians between Syria and Israel may be an attempt to float the Regime of Bashar al-Assad Arabic and American through the Israeli gate, but this scenario also collides with Tehran, as the Arab countries have their problem in Syria is Iran, which has become a common denominator among themselves as well as Israel.

Former diplomat Bassam Barbandi, that the recent U.S.-Israeli move to establish a joint committee tasked with monitoring Iran's missile file in the region will not be limited to Syria but the entire region, and this shows the difficulty of implementing Russia's seeking to float Assad from the Israeli gate.

"Preparing for Something"

Israeli sources predicted that Russian moves might hide behind future events and changes in Syria and the region in general.

Israeli political analyst Shimon Aran tweeted on April 27, 2021: “These mysterious moves indicate that something secret is happening out of the spotlight in Syria”.

Israeli aviation journalist Itay Blumental said in a press statement on April 28, 2021: “The plane carries large, high-class characters”, however, he did not indicate whether the characters were Russian, Israeli or both sides.

Haaretz reported on April 28, 2021, that Russian aircraft travelling between Israel and Latakia, carrying senior Russian political figures, without disclosing the nature of the mission carried by Russian politicians on their trips between Tel Aviv and Latakia.

Journalist Ahmed Darwasha, speaking in a press statement on April 30, 2021, said: “Flights between Tel Aviv and Latakia are a major event, three flights were spotted within a week”.

Darwasha suggested that the Russians might make their route from Moscow to Tel Aviv to Latakia, which is practically surprising, “The nominations indicate that Russian aircraft are transporting militaries who were coming to Tel Aviv”.

This raises the question: “Why are the Russian military visiting Israel and then Syria? This is likely to be that Tel Aviv has detected an abnormal Iranian move and it is possible that it is communicating with the Russians about it”.

“The questions asked are bigger than the answers, is it just an Israeli political move with the Assad regime, “Especially since flights have not been announced from Israel, Syria and Russia”.

“The flights did not return to Tel Aviv, rather, its route was Tel Aviv - Latakia, and this indicates that the flights did not carry Israeli delegations, and also this indicates that the flights carried only Russian officers and officials”.

Completion of Meetings

Flight reports between Tel Aviv and Latakia were linked to previous meetings held by the regime with Russian-sponsored Israeli officials at The Khmeimim base, Russia recognizes that “Israel cannot be overridden in any settlement of the Syrian file”.

In January 2021, press reports revealed that The Khmeimim Base hosted meetings involving Syrian officials and Russian-sponsored Israeli security figures, a move that caused a lot of coverage.

In details of the meeting, the Syrian center "Jusoor" exhibition of studies revealed, on January 18, 2021, “In December 2020, The Khmeimim Base witnessed a meeting with Bashar al-Assad with an Israeli security official, in the presence of a Russian military intelligence”.

The report prepared by the director of the center, Muhammad Sarmini, explained, “The meeting was attended by the Syrian side, head of the National Security Bureau Ali Mamlouk, his special adviser on security and strategy, Major General Bassam Hassan”.

On the Israeli side, General Gadi Eisenkot of the Chief of Staff, and former Mossad General Ari Ben-Menashe, attended, while, commander of Russian forces in Syria Alexander Chaikov, attended, according to the report.

“Assad presented several demands in the meeting, most notably the return to the Arab League, and obtaining financial assistance to pay off Iran's debt, thus, he opened the way for his regime to get Iran out of Syria”.

Assad also offered his support for establishing his rule and restoring relations with the Sunni-Arab alliance, supporting its regime economically, suspending sanctions imposed on Syria, and the suspension of the "Caesar" penal code, according to the report.

In return, the Israeli side requested the dismantling of the so-called "Alliance of resistance and reluctance", and expulsion of Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah forces and all foreign militias from Syria completely.

Tel Aviv also requested "the formation of a government with the Syrian opposition equally, and the complete restructuring of the Syrian security and military establishment, and return of the defected officers with a Russian, American, and Israeli guarantee, according to the report.

Sarmini stressed that although this initial meeting did not end in specific agreements, it marks the beginning of a path that Russia is pushing hard toward, and is believed to see a major expansion in 2021.

He says Moscow believes that building a direct relationship between the Assad regime and Tel Aviv could be the regime's lifeline, thus, it is seeking international accreditation for its project about a political solution in Syria.