Contrasting Visions: How the U.S. Seeks to Deter Turkiye from Fighting Kurdish Forces in Syria

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, Turkiye and the United States are facing complex political and security entitlements in north-east Syria, where the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are stationed, which have long been the focus of contention between Ankara and Washington.

While Turkiye says that these forces threaten its national security as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been waging an armed conflict against the Turkish state for more than 40 years, the U.S. considers them a key partner in its war against ISIS.

Multiple scenarios are imposed by regional and international interests, at a time when the two countries are seeking to maintain a balance in their relations despite deep differences over the fate of the Kurdish forces and the future of influence in Syria.

Since 2016, Turkiye has launched four military operations in northern Syria, attributing them to threats to national security.

Turkish Plans

Despite Western calls for Turkiye to calm down in Syria, Ankara has announced its intention to eliminate what it considers terrorist organizations in Syria, referring to the PKK and the SDF.

With the fall of the Assad regime, Ankara has sought to weaken US-backed Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, even though this could put it at odds with its Western allies, most notably Washington.

Turkiye has recently escalated its tone towards the SDF significantly, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that the time has come to eliminate ISIS and the PKK and their partners, which threaten the survival of Syria.

Erdogan said he expected foreign states would withdraw support for Kurdish fighters, referring, in particular, to Washington.

In the same context, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stressed that Turkiye's strategic goal is to end the presence of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), considering that it has two options: either to dissolve itself or to be eliminated by force.

He explained that the Turkish position on the armed Kurdish organizations in Syria represents an existential issue related to Turkish national security.

In contrast to Turkish statements regarding ending the presence of the PKK and the Kurdish YPG in Syria, the U.S. has shown its determination to cooperate with the SDF as a close ally in the war against ISIS.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the importance of the role played by the SDF in preventing the return of ISIS, describing this role as vital to the stability of Syria after years of conflict with the terrorist organization.

Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said that there are no plans for US forces to leave Syria, and they will continue their mission with their allies in the war against ISIS, and there are also no plans to dissolve the Kurdish units or sever ties with the SDF.

Ryder revealed that the number of US forces in Syria is 2,000 soldiers, a number that is higher than previous estimates that indicated the presence of only 900 soldiers.

On December 20, senior diplomats from the administration of US President Joe Biden met with members of the new Syrian administration formed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

During the meeting, Washington sought to involve its Kurdish allies in the political transition process, despite Turkiye’s concerns.

Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa stressed that the SDF must be included in the new government, through understanding or through fighting.

“We will absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control,” he said, referring to the SDF.

Potential Attack 

Turkiye is still counting on US President-elect Donald Trump to fulfill his pledges, which he made during his first presidential term, to withdraw from Syria and abandon support for the Kurdish units.

In light of the repeated Turkish statements about ending the presence of Kurdish forces in north-east Syria, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi offered to remove his faction's foreign fighters from Syria if a ceasefire is reached with Turkiye.

He also stated in an interview with France 24 that his forces did not demand federal rule in Syria, but rather wanted to be part of a centralized Syrian state without division.

Ankara has once again increased its pressure on the SDF to disarm, as the Turkish Ministry of Defense stressed, on December 19, the need to take measures to force Kurdish fighters to lay down their weapons.

It also indicated that the new Syrian authorities will liberate the areas occupied by the YPG in northern Syria, stressing that Ankara does not negotiate with any terrorist organization.

Last week, American and Turkish officials said that Turkiye and its allies are building up forces along the border with Syria to carry out an potential attack against Kurdish forces in northern Syria.

As Turkiye's intransigence continues, the SDF has vowed to fight Turkiye and the groups it supports in the northern Syrian city of Kobani.

Following this, the Turkish army and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army factions escalated their strikes on SDF sites in Manbij and Kobani, after Ankara denied what American sources announced about an agreement on a truce between Turkiye and SDF. 

Regarding Washington's position on these military moves, former US State Department advisor Andrew Tabler said that “the U.S. has reinforced its forces in Kobani as a message to Turkiye and to dissuade armed Syrian opposition from launching an attack.”

The Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria also warned that attacks on areas under its control could lead to ISIS elements reaching prisons that house the organization's leaders and militants.

In turn, Ilham Ehmed, co-chair of the Foreign Relations Authority in the Autonomous Administration, sent a direct message to Trump, urging him to intervene quickly to stop what she described as a potential Turkish invasion.

Ehmed wrote in her message, which was seen by the Wall Street Journal: “Turkiye seeks to impose its de facto control over our lands before you officially assume your duties, to force you to deal with them as a de facto authority. If Turkiye goes ahead with its plans, the consequences will be disastrous.”

The incoming government in Washington could further complicate the US stance towards Syria and Turkiye.

President-elect Donald Trump, who assumes power next month and has indicated a more hands-off approach to Syria, called the removal of al-Assad an unfriendly takeover orchestrated by Turkiye.

Trump said on December 16 that Turkiye will hold the key to what happens in Syria but has not announced his plans for US forces stationed there.

Trump has previously expressed doubts about Washington's small presence in Syria, and tried to withdraw completely during his first presidency.

“YPG-led forces have failed to achieve the enduring defeat of ISIS. After six years, time for an American rethink of strategy,” former US ambassador to Damascus, Robert Ford said in response to the senators' sanctions threat.

US Efforts

Some US lawmakers have expressed concerns about the potential for expanding Turkish attacks on US-backed Kurdish forces, calling for action to limit Turkish influence inside Syria in the post-Assad era.

Republican Senator John Kennedy warned that he is concerned Turkiye would invade Syria.

“If you touch a hair on the head of the Kurds, I'm going to ask this U.S. Congress to do something. Our sanctions are not going to help the economy of Turkiye. I don't want to do that,” he said.

The bipartisan bill, the Countering Turkish Aggression Act of 2024, was introduced by Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

The proposed bill would allow for sanctions aimed at preventing further Turkish or Ankara-backed attacks on the SDF, which herald the resurgence of ISIS and threaten U.S. national security.

But the bill's sponsors said Washington should work diplomatically with Turkiye to facilitate a sustainable ceasefire and establish a demilitarized zone between Turkiye and Syria.

Former U.S. diplomat Henry Ensher said the proposed bill reflects a symbolic move by senators, and is partly an expression of Washington's concerns about local partners in the region and fears of a return of ISIS.

Writer Rami Khalifa believes in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the SDF options are limited and burdened with concessions: it seeks to maintain the status quo, even at a high price, including sharing oil in exchange for maintaining its independent institutions and military wing.”

“But recent developments confirm that even this option has become out of reach. The SDF has become surrounded by a hostile environment, waiting for the right moment to end its existence,” he said.

Mr. Khalifa pointed out that “the U.S. has now become one of the architects of the new Syrian scene, in line with regional understandings.”

He concluded that Turkiye may resort to the military option if the SDF insists on remaining in the region, and he did not rule out that Turkiye may seek the help of HTS forces to carry out a military operation to secure its interests.