Closer to the Suez Canal: Why Has ISIS Returned to Battle Sisi's Forces?

Nearly a week after the head of the Suez Canal Authority, Lieutenant General Osama Rabie, announced on August 2, 2022, that the shipping lane recorded the highest monthly revenue in its history at $704 million compared to $531.8 million during the same month in 2021.

The activities of the Islamic State (Sinai Province) near the canal have rebounded, threatening the Egyptian regime's army led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, which has been repeating its claims that the Sinai region is completely secure.

After attacks in January and May 2022 in areas 15 and 25 kilometers from the Suez Canal, closer attacks took place on August 11, 2022, just 5 kilometers from the shipping lane, challenging the military and regime in Egypt, which is currently facing a worsening economic crisis.

Despite the media blackout and the army spokesman's silence about any information regarding the attack in the Qantara area of Ismailia Governorate, media outlets circulated reports that the army had mobilized huge ground and air forces and tribal militias to repel Islamic State militants.

 

What Happened?

According to multiple Sinai sources, on August 11, ISIS militants took control of the area of the electricity transformers of the city of Qantara—5 kilometers from the Suez Canal—and surrounded the railway area there, and blocked roads.

The sources confirmed to Al-Estiklal that the members of the organization climbed the Gelbana bridge, between the international road linking the cities of North Sinai and the Suez Canal, established a checkpoint, searched the drivers' papers, confiscated 7 cars, and booby-trapped roads to repel the army and tribal militias.

The army forces closed the ambush of the triangle near the Suez Canal to travelers coming to North Sinai Governorate and the Rafah land crossing with the Gaza Strip, as well as the Baloza ambush to travelers from North Sinai Governorate towards the Canal.

This was followed by violent clashes that lasted nearly four days in the Gelbana area of Sinai in the city of Qantara, between ISIS militants and army forces and tribes supporting it, and heavy aerial bombardments.

The pages of the tribes and military ones confirmed that the clashes involved about 50 ISIS militants who occupied the area and almost threatened navigation in the canal if they got closer to it, which necessitated the intervention of the army forces to "burn" the area where the militants are located.

On August 14, the Mada Masr website quoted unnamed sources as saying that the militants had taken control of a distance of 500 meters along the international road al-Arish–Qantara from the Gelbana market to the electricity company.

An Egyptian military analyst pointed out that the presence of ISIS militants in large numbers in the village of Gelbana threatens to repeat what happened in the Green Triangle, when the organization took control of the villages of Qatiya, al-Merih, and al-Ganayen, southwest of Bir al-Abed, for about three months.

He told Al-Estiklal that this presence threatens the Suez Canal, which is why the army dealt violently with them, and the phrase that was repeated among the officers was "Burn them" for fear that the canal would be affected by the nearby hostilities.

The military spokesman for the armed forces did not make any statements regarding what was happening in Gelbana, and Egyptian newspapers did not publish anything about what was going on.

Egyptian law prohibits the publication of any statements, information, or news related to the military, imposes a broad media ban on Sinai conditions, and punishes anyone who publishes information other than what the military broadcasts only with imprisonment.

But the Bir al-Abed Tribal Union page published on August 12 that Egyptian Apache jets targeted the attackers with heavy weapons and killed them.

Another post on August 13 spoke of "military support coming down Sinai for the first time" to eliminate Islamic State attackers on Gelbana without specifying it.

 

Why the Suez Canal?

A study by the British Information Research Group IHS Markit Ltd, published in early April 2021, confirms that ISIS is concerned with the Suez Canal and creating a mess around it.

The impact of the incident of the container ship Ever Geffen, which closed the Suez Canal on March 23, 2021, on global trade has worried the shipping industry about the possibility of similar disruption "due to political violence."

"ISIS in Sinai sees the Suez Canal as an ambitious target, perhaps encouraged by the widespread impact of the canal crash caused by the Ever Geffen," the study said.

"Militants in Sinai do not have the ability to cause significant damage or disrupt a cargo ship in the Suez Canal," it explained.

"Their capabilities are limited to missile strikes with RPGs or anti-tank missiles that will only cause superficial damage to the cargo ship and will not disrupt it," it said.

"But a blockage of the canal by a damaged vessel may become more likely in the event of a suicide attack using a boat loaded with explosives."

The study monitored 140 attacks by militants in North Sinai between 2020 and 2021, noting that they were "within 50 kilometers of the Suez Canal."

This means that the group's 5-kilometer distance this time around poses a further risk to the canal and the safety of ships.

Adding to the concern, this is not the first time the group had approached Sinai, as it began appearing on the western outskirts of Sinai near the Suez Canal in December 2020, when it attacked air defense force battalions and observation points more than once.

The group's operations continued to expand to the areas of the Tina and Gelbana plains in Sinai.

The group's last attack was on May 7, 2022, when it attacked the Aram 2 water lifting point located about 26 kilometers from the Suez Canal, south of the current clashes area in the village of Gelbana, killing 17 Egyptian military personnel.

Israel's Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (Meir Amit) described the Islamic State attack, in which an officer and 16 soldiers were killed, as "disturbing."

It explained on May 17 that there are fears that the Islamic State will try to expand its activity in Sinai beyond the areas where it normally operates (Rafah, Sheikh Zuweid, and Bir al-Abed) and get closer to the Suez Canal and even the Nile Valley.

The attack once again exposed the Egyptian army's difficulties in dealing with Sinai Province elements who, despite the heavy blows they were subjected to, were able to continue beating army forces, security forces, and tribes.

The Hebrew Center stressed that "the Sinai Province has proven that it has the ability to recover and adapt to all circumstances."