Can Turkiye Reduce the Escalating Tension Between Serbia and Kosovo?

As Kosovo reels from a week of violent unrest that injured dozens of people, including 30 international peacekeepers, NATO has deployed a Turkish commando battalion to help restore order in the troubled Balkan country.

The Turkish Defense Ministry released a video showing troops boarding a plane in Turkiye and landing in Kosovo, where they joined the Kosovo Force, a NATO-led peacekeeping mission that has been operating since 1999.

The clashes erupted last weekend near the border with Serbia, which does not recognize Kosovo’s independence and has long been at odds with its former province.

Ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo protested against a decision by the Kosovar authorities to ban cars with Serbian license plates from entering the country.

The protesters threw stones and firebombs at the peacekeepers, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. Some of the soldiers suffered fractures and burns from improvised explosive devices, according to NATO officials.

The violence raised fears of a resurgence of the 1998-99 war in Kosovo, which killed more than 10,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. The war ended with a NATO bombing campaign that forced Serbia to withdraw its forces from Kosovo.

Turkiye has been a staunch supporter of Kosovo’s sovereignty and one of the first countries to recognize its declaration of independence in 2008.

It has also maintained close cultural and economic ties with the predominantly Muslim country since the late 1990s.

 

Boycotting Elections

The roots of the crisis go back to April, when local elections were held in Kosovo, where the Serb community largely boycotted the vote, resulting in Albanian domination of municipal councils in areas where Serbs had been predominant.

When the newly elected Albanian officials tried to take office in public buildings, they were met with resistance from armed groups loyal to Serbia, wearing badges with the letter “Z”—a symbol of Russia’s involvement in the war in Ukraine. The clashes left several people dead and injured.

The United States, which has been a key supporter of Kosovo’s statehood and security, reacted by imposing sanctions on the government in Pristina, accusing it of failing to consult with Washington before making decisions.

Alicia Kearns, the chairwoman of the British Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, called the move “strategic incoherence.”

A Kosovar academic who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals told The Associated Press that the sanctions were part of a campaign by the United States to undermine Albin Kurti, the prime minister of Kosovo, who has tried to assert more sovereignty and independence for his country.

The United States has refrained from criticizing Serbia for its role in the violence, hoping to prevent it from drifting further into Russia’s orbit. But it has grown frustrated with Kosovo’s refusal to follow its dictates on issues such as border demarcation and economic cooperation with Serbia.

“The United States wants to get rid of Kurti, just as it did in 2020, but nobody here supports that,” the academic said.

In March 2020, Kurti faced a political coup orchestrated by the United States after he resisted its pressure to sign a deal with Serbia that many Kosovars considered detrimental to their national interests.

Richard Grenell, the then-U.S. special envoy for Serbia and Kosovo, reportedly coerced Kurti’s coalition partner, the right-wing Democratic League of Kosovo, to withdraw its support for his government.

The U.S. intervention sparked public outrage in Kosovo, and when new elections were held a year later, Kurti’s party—the Movement for Self-Determination (Vetevendosje)—won a landslide victory with more than 50 percent of the vote.

Kurti has since challenged Washington’s influence over Kosovo’s affairs, insisting on pursuing his own agenda and vision for his country.

“Kurti is trying to preserve Kosovo’s sovereignty, but at the same time the European powers and America are trying to keep Kosovo in a limbo state because it always needs their help or thinks it needs their help,” the academic said.

“And of course, the current tensions are not isolated from the big geopolitical game between the West and Russia.”

 

Loss of Legitimacy

Kosovo’s pro-Western sentiment was once so strong that it named streets after American presidents, christened children after Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, and even opened a clothing store in its capital, Pristina, dedicated to Hillary Clinton’s fashion choices.

The predominantly Muslim country also aligned itself with every major foreign policy goal of the United States: It agreed to establish an embassy in Jerusalem—one of only three countries to do so—designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, imposed sanctions on Russia after its war against Ukraine, and hosted Afghan refugees awaiting asylum in America.

But these gestures of loyalty have not been reciprocated by the West, according to some Kosovar politicians and activists. They say that the United States and the European Union have taken Kosovo for granted while pressuring it to make concessions to Serbia in order to normalize their relations and pave the way for Serbia’s integration into the EU.

Kosovo’s leaders have also accused the West of turning a blind eye to Serbia’s violations of their 2013 agreement, which granted more autonomy to Serb-dominated areas in northern Kosovo.

“Kosovars feel lately that the United States and the European Union will not hesitate to do anything to rid Serbia of Russia’s sphere of influence,” said a political activist close to Albin Kurti, Kosovo’s prime minister and leader of the largest party, Vetevendosje. The activist spoke on condition of anonymity to Middle East Eye because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

The activist cited recent attacks by Serbian militias on NATO and Kosovo forces near the border as an example of Serbia’s aggression and impunity.

He also criticized the reaction of Jeffrey Hovenier, the American ambassador to Kosovo, who expressed his anger at Kosovo for deploying special police units to the border area without consulting NATO or the EU.

Hovenier said he would be surprised if any government official in Kosovo could visit the United States at this time.

As Kosovo’s frustration with the West grows, some are looking for alternative partners who can offer more respect and support.

Turkiye is one such potential ally, as it has historical and cultural ties with Kosovo and has been vocal in defending its independence and territorial integrity.

Turkiye is also seeking to expand its influence in the Balkans, where it competes with Russia for regional dominance.

If Western policy continues on its current course, and if Turkish diplomacy becomes more active in the region, Kosovo may be tempted to shift its orientation toward Ankara.

Such a move could have significant implications for the stability and security of Europe’s most volatile corner.

 

Going Back

As tensions rise in the Balkans over the status of Kosovo, Turkiye is seeking to play a constructive role in the region, where it has historical and economic ties with both Serbia and Kosovo.

A Turkish opposition lawmaker from the Republican People’s Party, which leans to the left, urged Ankara to take the lead in mediating between the two sides. Talha Kose, a professor of international relations at Ibn Haldun University in Istanbul, said Turkiye could capitalize on its good relations with Serbia and its cultural affinity with Kosovo.

“The European Union is struggling to play a more constructive role with Serbia and Kosovo. This represents a diplomatic opportunity for Turkiye,” he said, citing Turkiye’s successful mediation last year over grain shipments between Russia and Ukraine as a model.

“The mistake the EU constantly makes is to take a stand on the domestic policies of those countries, and there is no doubt that Russia is playing a role in those current tensions,” he added.

Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vucic, has already appealed to his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for help in resolving the dispute. Kosovo and Serbia have been locked in a stalemate over their mutual recognition, which has hampered their integration into the EU and NATO.

“The United States, NATO, and the EU are in one place. Russia and China are in another place, and they have contradicting positions and interests. Turkiye could help convene a summit with all these stakeholders, but Turkiye has to build contacts with those stakeholders,” Kose said.

But Sinan Baykent, a foreign policy expert on the Balkans, was skeptical that Turkiye could make much headway in the region, where he said the United States and the EU were more interested in quick fixes than lasting solutions.

“The U.S. is increasingly focused on finding quick fixes in the Balkans, as it seeks to shift its focus toward China,” he said.

“The Kosovo file represents a legacy burden on America that it wants to get rid of, so it is in a hurry to leave the region, while Turkiye’s presence is deeply rooted in history, and unlike America, Turkiye is not interested in building a temporary situation that is doomed to fail.”

Baykent said that both Washington and Brussels had contributed to the current escalation by pushing for a land swap between Serbia and Kosovo, which was widely opposed by other countries in the region.

He said Turkiye had maintained a balanced approach among all regional parties and could host a summit between Albania, Kosovo, and Serbia, but he doubted that the U.S. and the EU would welcome a greater role for Turkiye in the Balkans.

“The EU considers that area its ‘backyard,’ yet this should not dissuade Turkiye from filling this regional vacuum and mediating between all parties,” he said.