Breaking Ranks: Why Is Iraq Slow to Normalize Ties With Syria?

Iraq has followed Iran's lead in snubbing Ahmed al-Sharaa’s appointment as Syria’s transitional president, breaking ranks with the broader Arab world. 

This surprising move has sparked questions about Baghdad’s reluctance to offer the usual diplomatic congratulations, despite their close geographic ties.

On January 29, 2025, Syria’s new administration announced al-Sharaa’s appointment as transitional president, alongside decisions to dissolve armed factions, dismantle the security apparatus of the previous regime, and dissolve both the People's Assembly and the Baath Party, which had ruled Syria for decades.

Marking the occasion, numerous Arab and neighboring countries—led by Turkiye, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, and Jordan—sent congratulatory messages. Iraq, however, remained conspicuously silent.

A Sign of Non-Recognition?

Just a day before al-Sharaa’s appointment, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein stated in a televised interview that Baghdad maintains continuous communication with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, despite the absence of an official visit to Damascus.

Hussein also revealed that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani had instructed him to visit Syria as part of a broader effort to strengthen bilateral ties, though no further details were provided.

On December 26, 2024, an Iraqi delegation led by Intelligence Chief Hamid al-Shatri visited Damascus and met with al-Sharaa—who was then leading Syria’s new administration—to discuss security and stability along their shared border.

Former Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari weighed in on the issue, stating that “the Iraqi government is lagging behind in engaging with Syria’s new leadership, unlike other key Arab states in the Levant, particularly Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Palestine, Lebanon, Oman, and Bahrain.”

“It is in Iraq’s best interest to engage pragmatically with the current reality, as continued chaos in Syria would directly threaten Iraq’s security and stability,” he posted on X.

Professor of Strategic and International Studies Ihssan Shmary posted on X the same day saying, “Neither Iraq’s president nor prime minister has extended congratulations to Ahmed al-Sharaa on his new role as president, signaling Baghdad's reluctance to officially recognize the new leadership. This absence of diplomatic acknowledgment highlights ongoing distrust in the relationship.”

Iraq's Prime Ministerial Advisor, Ibrahim al-Soumydaie, has called for supporting Syria’s stability, citing the economic interests between the two nations that necessitate collaboration. He warned against isolation, cautioning that Iraq could lose out on development opportunities to Syria if this path is followed.

In a post on X, al-Soumydaie downplayed security concerns often cited in Iraq’s approach to Syria, arguing that the real challenge lies elsewhere. 

“Syria is learning from Iraq’s mistakes and the failures of the Arab Spring. It is moving forward with serious reforms that align with regional and global expectations, posing a major economic and development challenge to Iraq.”

Al-Soumydaie warned that Syria is now well-positioned to attract investments and infrastructure projects Iraq has struggled to secure since the fall of Saddam Hussein. “Even Iraq’s flagship Development Road project could end up rerouted through Aleppo, linking the Arabian Peninsula and Africa,” he said.

“Prolonged instability in Syria would inevitably spill over into [Iraq]; Baghdad should take a more active role in stabilizing its neighbor rather than risking isolation.”

‘Iran’s VETO’

Despite Iraqi intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri’s visit to Damascus and his meeting with Syria’s new leader, analyst Hamed al-Ubaidi argues that Iraq’s stance on Syria remains closely tied to Iran.

“Iran has deliberately sought to demonize Syria’s new administration since it took power, and Baghdad’s position cannot be separated from Tehran’s,” al-Ubaidi told Al-Estiklal.

“Tehran has taken a hostile approach toward Syria’s leadership, and with Iraq’s government dominated by the Iran-aligned Shiite Coordination Framework, its foreign policy largely follows Iran’s lead.”

“Iraqi decision-making today is not independent of Iranian influence,” he said.

Al-Ubaidi suggested that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani might prefer to align with Arab and international engagement efforts with Syria, but his hands are tied. 

“The Coordination Framework, which holds sway over the government, is deeply entrenched in Iran’s orbit, and Sudani himself lacks a strong parliamentary bloc—his Tayar al-Furatain holds just three seats.”

The analyst also pointed to former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition, as a major obstacle to rapprochement with Damascus. “Maliki remains one of the fiercest opponents of normalizing ties with Syria, continuing to push sectarian rhetoric against its new administration,” al-Ubaidi added.

Former Iraqi lawmaker Misha’an al-Juburi claims Iraq is constrained by an “Iranian” veto preventing positive engagement with Syria’s new leadership.

“Iraq first sent its intelligence chief and spoke cautiously about Syria, but then, in a sudden about-face, the government reversed its stance,” al-Juburi said in a televised interview.

He also pointed to a coordinated shift in rhetoric among pro-Iranian Shiite bloggers. “At first, their tone was flexible, but then it turned hostile, with accusations of betrayal and calls to crush Syria’s new administration.”

According to al-Juburi, Iran appears to have directed its state-funded media network, the Islamic Radios and Television Union, to escalate attacks against Syria’s leadership.

He also criticized the double standards in labeling figures as terrorists. “Those who brand Ahmed al-Sharaa a terrorist should take a hard look at some of Iraq’s own political figures—many of whom are on terror lists and have committed crimes. Why is one labeled a terrorist while the other is called a resistance fighter?”

Escalating Incitement

Amid the ambiguity of Iraq’s stance on Damascus, Coordination leader Nouri al-Maliki called on February 1 for standing firm against what he described as the “great sedition” in Syria, claiming that Syria’s Shiite “followers of Ahl al-Bayt” are awaiting support from Iraq’s Shiites and Popular Mobilization Forces.

“Every day, we see videos of massacres against the followers of Ahl al-Bayt [Shiites], and they are calling for help—where are Iraq’s Shiites, the PMF, Iran, and the tribes?” Maliki said during a tribal gathering in Karbala.

He further claimed that Syria’s new rulers had “not only spilled blood but violated honor as well,” warning that if they were not stopped, “this sedition will reach Iraq.”

Meanwhile, on January 22, Akram al-Kaabi, leader of the Iran-aligned Iraqi militia Harakat al-Nujaba, suggested Tehran’s regional influence was far from waning. “Some may think the [Iranian] axis lost in Syria, but just wait—we may end up winning Syria and more. Our bet remains on proud and free nations,” he said in a televised speech.

One day after, Ayoub al-Rubayie, a leader in the Iran-aligned Iraqi militia Kata’ib al-Imam Ali, known in the media as “Abu Azrael,” issued a stark warning about an inevitable confrontation with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as “Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.”

In a video posted on X on January 23, Abu Azrael, surrounded by his fighters, declared, “No mercy for those who show none, no safety for those who are untrustworthy, and no forgiveness for those who harm without remorse. Indulgence toward criminals only makes you their prey.”

Addressing al-Sharaa directly, he added, “Al-Jolani [..] our confrontation with you is inevitable. We will never forget what you’ve done to our people in Syria, you terrorist.”

Harakat al-Nujaba militia, led by Akram al-Kaabi, was formed in 2013 under the direction of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, specifically Qassem Soleimani, then commander of the Quds Force, to fight in Syria. Similarly, the Kata’ib al-Imam Ali militia, led by Shibl al-Zaydi (the secretary-general), was established in 2014.