Awful Truth: These Might Be the Possible Outcomes of Putin’s Imminent Victory in Ukraine

The Guardian published an article entitled The awful truth is dawning: Putin may win in Ukraine. The result would be catastrophe. The article noted that Russia's victory would usher in a new era of instability, economic fragmentation, hunger for millions, and social unrest.

Simon Tisdall, a commentator on international affairs for the Guardian, wrote in his article that failure to stop the Russian war on Ukraine and punish the regime in Moscow will have severe repercussions at the global level, especially on European countries.

He said that the Western anger sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 has begun to fade, as has the wave of optimism that followed Ukraine's success in repelling the Russian advance towards Kyiv.

He stressed: “Let’s get real. For all its heroism and sacrifice, Ukraine may lose this fight. Dreadful though it sounds, Putin could win. If the West abandons its principles and values to let that happen, the long-term price, for everyone, will be a whole new world of pain.”

 

Unlikely Quick Victory

In an interview with Al-Estiklal the academician, researcher in politics, and specialist in strategic issues in the Arab world Hazem Ayyad explained: “In my opinion, a quick victory in Ukraine is unlikely at the present stage. It cannot be said that Putin will achieve a quick victory in Ukraine. we need to wait until the end of the year to see if Putin was able to achieve great gains on the ground and was able to force the regime in Kyiv to sign an agreement that ends the conflict and fully satisfies Russia.”

He added: “For now, this is not expected, and the conflict will continue for a while. We expect that the Ukrainians will make major concessions forced by the significant military pressure. Otherwise, if the conflict continues after the end of this year, it will prove that there is a greater involvement of the European Union and NATO, which will prolong the war and bring us closer to a direct confrontation between Russia and Poland, the neighboring countries of Ukraine.”

He emphasized: “Thus, it will be a wide war that includes NATO. I think that all parties at the current stage are trying to avoid this. At least for the next stage. I expect that they will find a solution to avoid the scenario of direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.”

 

Putin’s Direct Involvement

The Sunday Times, dealt with the future of the war in Ukraine from a remarkable angle, as it determined its future with who is leading it in Moscow.

In an analytical article by Professor Mark Galeotti, the newspaper stated that if Russian President Vladimir Putin insists on his direct involvement in the military plans of the war, it will be to the delight of the Ukrainians, and on the contrary, if he leaves it to the military leaders, it will be a bad omen for the Ukrainians.

Galeotti explained that with Putin declaring control of the besieged port city of Mariupol, a new military operation in the Donbas region is on the way.

"However, the size and magnitude of this operation will reveal Russian capabilities, and more importantly, who is running things," he added.

Galeotti wondered if Putin had learned the lesson from his unprofessional intervention in the military operation at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, as he built his perception that the Ukrainians would allow him quickly to install a new soft regime, and this miscalculation proved disastrous.

The question is: Will Putin follow the way of Stalin—who discovered the error of interfering in military matters during World War II in 1941, and what this caused by endangering the Red Army during the German invasion to leave the military leaders later in charge of matters. Or the way of Hitler, who did not learn the lesson and directed military operations to the end?

It is clear that Putin wants a quick victory in Ukraine in order to celebrate Victory Day, on the ninth of May. The author of the article concludes his analysis by saying that what will happen in the coming days will teach us a lot about Putin's ability to learn from his mistakes or even admit them.

If he allows the generals to direct the war, that will be bad news for the Ukrainians. However, if he sticks to his arrogance and puts his immediate political goals above the field experience of his military leaders, more failures will happen, and the war would last longer.

 

New World Order

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he will win the war he started against Ukraine.

Nehammer added, during an interview with NBC, that Putin spoke to him in their meeting to warn that he would win the war, and added that "it would be better for the war to end sooner rather than later."

The political expert Hazem pointed out that the repercussions of this war will include some settlements, in which Russia will achieve some minor gains on the political and military levels. It will certainly control all the beaches and coastal cities in Ukraine and the eastern region. Without it, Russia will not stop the war.

He emphasized that the war outcomes will be for the benefit of Russia militarily. With Russian success on the ground, many features of the global system will change. From the perception of European and Western countries, led by the United States, the repercussions will be very negative. Therefore, the vision for Europeans is pessimistic.

But globally, many rising powers were waiting for this moment, such as Turkiye, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, and India. These countries want the world order to change, and they seek to secure a greater place in it. Therefore, any possible change that Russia could bring to the world order would be positive for these powers.

Yet, with the continued conflict and sanctions against Russia, the economic consequences will be for everyone, not just Russia. Rather, the entire international economic system will endure severe damage.