Amid Sharp Division: Will Iranian Reformists Return to the Political Process Again?

After being absent from Iran’s political scene when hardliners took power in recent years, prominent reformist figures have made headlines in recent weeks. This has led to speculation among hardliners that the reformists are planning a comeback in next year’s parliamentary elections.

On the other hand, Etemad Newspaper accused the extremist media outlets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of waging a psychological war against Iranian reformists, confirming that many reformist candidates did not register their names to participate in the upcoming elections due to the large exclusion witnessed in the previous elections.

In 2021, Khamenei and the Guardian Council banned prominent presidential candidates from running to ensure Ebrahim Raisi’s victory in the race, perhaps with the aim of gradually grooming him to become the next supreme leader.

In doing so, Khamenei appeared willing to tolerate the side effects of undermining the legitimacy of the political system and further bolstering public opinion, suggesting that this pattern could be repeated in 2024.

 

Khamenei’s Dilemmas

Last month, a new electoral cycle began in Iran, which will be completed in March 2024, during which voters will choose representatives of two institutions, the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, amid reports of a dilemma facing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei regarding the nominated names.

Speaker of the Iranian Parliament (Islamic Consultative Assembly) of Iran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and 220 deputies registered their names to participate in the upcoming elections.

A report published on the Washington Institute for Studies website indicated that Khamenei will have to choose in this session between forcefully excluding candidates, which would further alienate public opinion, or exposing himself to the risk of his political opponents dominating the Council, which are two real dilemmas.

The report said that the recent electoral cycle in Iran proved to be disappointing. In 2021, the Khamenei regime’s Guardian Council — a 12-member body appointed directly or indirectly by the Supreme Leader — disqualified several prominent figures from running for the presidency, leaving eventual winner Ebrahim Raisi effectively unopposed.

The report continued: “The aggressive rejection of moderate and reformist candidates exacerbated the public’s lack of enthusiasm for the contest, resulting in the lowest turnout in history.”

The report indicated that the upcoming electoral period will be important for revealing the intentions of Khamenei, who must decide how to balance concerns about very low turnout, eventual succession, reformist political strategies, and the legitimacy of the regime in the wake of mass protests.

The 290-member Parliament constitutes one of the three main branches of government in Iran, but it has long assumed only secondary importance in setting the regime’s policies, especially regarding nuclear issues and foreign relations.

According to a poll conducted by the official government news agency on July 25, 68% of Iranians feel dissatisfied with Parliament. However, Parliament still plays a role in building consensus on important decisions.

In this context, the report indicated that given Khamenei’s advanced age (84 years), the next Assembly of Experts may be the one who will legitimize the succession process and Khamenei’s final nominee at some point during the Council’s 8-year term.

However, the 88-member Assembly of Experts, all but one of whom are clerics, is seen as a body under Khamenei’s control even though he is constitutionally mandated to supervise it, according to the report.

On the other hand, the Washington Institute for Studies believes that Khamenei may make the upcoming elections more inclusive in the hope of regaining some popular support and promoting national reconciliation after months of unrest that erupted following the death of the young woman Mahsa Amini.

The report added: “This approach might also help [Khamenei] reconcile with the various prominent figures he alienated over the past decade while neutralizing potential opposition bases.”

The report also indicated that the Supreme Leader may fear that the high turnout in the upcoming elections will lead to the establishment of a parliament dominated by reformists and pragmatists, who may be more skeptical of the current hardline regime’s approach and more willing to challenge Raisi’s government.

 

Possible Political Comeback

In a related context, there was a sharp division among the leaders of the Iranian reformist movement regarding running in the upcoming elections, with some of them fearing a repeat of the scenario of exclusion carried out by the Guardian Council against them in the 2020 parliamentary elections and the 2021 presidential elections.

In turn, former reformist President Mohammad Khatami called for lifting the ban on the participation of licensed parties in the elections, demanding the necessity of making constitutional amendments.

He added that he supports any change through elections, not coups, noting that the elections must be realistic elections for the sake of the people.

Khatami confirmed that there are messages being sent from the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei encouraging reformists to participate in the elections.

On the other hand, an official of the reform committee formed by the movement to run in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections confirmed that the last meeting of reformist leaders witnessed a sharp division among members of the movement.

19 leaders from the extreme left voted against participating, while 16 leaders from the moderate reformists voted to run in the parliamentary race.

The source pointed out that the reformist leaders who insist on running for parliament fear, in the event of a boycott of the elections, the possibility of Khamenei’s death and the extremist fundamentalist movement taking over his position in light of the continued control of its members over all aspects of power.

Reform Front spokesman Javad Imam denied the existence of divisions in the Reform Front or any intentions to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Conservative media accused the reformists of preparing to return to the political arena with parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2024.

The Mashregh News website claimed on June 17 that moderate former President Hassan Rouhani is trying to regain his standing before the 2024 elections.

After a notable political disappearance, Rouhani’s statements recently emerged, in which he criticized the government of current President Ebrahim Raisi, which left some impressions of Rouhani’s desire for a possible political return.

Rouhani also strongly criticized the new election law, noting that it gives the Guardian Council broader powers in the process of deciding the eligibility of candidates.

Rouhani expressed his regret that during the past two and a half years, his country did not take advantage of the opportunity to revive the nuclear agreement and lift US sanctions, which deprived his country of $100 billion in oil exports.

Conservative Iranian media were quick to attack the reformist camp, claiming that they wanted to take advantage of the recent protests that spread across the country to return to power again.

While the reformist parties did not clearly reveal their plans for the parliamentary elections, ambiguity prevails in the position of the moderate movement in light of speculation about the possible return of former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and the entry of the majority of members of Hassan Rouhani’s government into the parliamentary race.

Reformist sources had reported last June that Larijani and Rouhani were waiting for positive signs to participate in the parliamentary elections, lead the moderate conservative movement, and form a coalition with the reformists.

 

Electoral Pressures

In recent weeks, figures from the reformist camp have spoken about the conditions that must be met in the upcoming parliamentary elections in order to ensure the participation of reformists.

For example, veteran reformist politician Saeed Hajjarian said in a newspaper interview that there are conditions the government must take into account to ensure the participation of reformists in the upcoming parliamentary elections, the most important of which is not excluding any reformist candidate, as well as not stopping the pressures seeking to impose certain names that do not have acceptable political influence in the elections.

This is what happened in the 2021 presidential elections when the reformist camp came under pressure to support both the former governor of the Iranian Central Bank, Abdul-Nasser Hemmati, and the reformist politician Mohsen Mehralizadeh.

On a related matter, there are reformist forces in Iran who believe that there is no benefit in participating in any future elections. Some even describe the participation of reform supporters in the electoral process as an attempt to preserve the current regime.

This is what Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani spoke about in a letter from prison, as she urged reformists not to participate in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, considering that this would preserve this regime.

Mrs. Rafsanjani believes that the Iranian regime has never recognized the existence of reformists, but rather has always exploited their presence to present itself as a democratic regime that supervises free and competitive elections.

In turn, reformist leader Mehdi Karroubi, who has been under house arrest for 13 years, said that all ways to participate in the elections are closed, despite the rulers’ claims regarding the invitation to participate in the parliamentary elections.

Despite the objections directed by the reformists, there is talk of figures from the movement registering their names, such as Ali Abbaspour Tehrani-Fard, who is close to former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; former Minister of Agriculture Seyed Javad Sadatinejad; the reformist MP in the current Parliament Masoud Pezeshkian; and former parliamentarian Ali Motahari.

On August 13, the Iranian Election Commission, affiliated with the Ministry of Interior, completed the process of registering candidates for the parliamentary elections, and Iranian media said that 48,000 had submitted candidacy applications across the country to compete for 290 seats in the Iranian Parliament.

Later, the Fars Agency, affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that more than 800 reformists had applied to run in the parliamentary elections.

In turn, the official Kayhan newspaper reported a silent recording of reformists in the elections.

This is the first election after the recent protests. The authorities fear that voters will refrain from going to the polls after the recent parliamentary and presidential elections recorded the lowest turnout in 4 decades.

Earlier this year, the Iranian Supreme Leader issued orders to mobilize all the energies of the state apparatus to increase the number of participants in the elections.