Alive or Dead: How Sinwar’s Blows Continue to Haunt Netanyahu, Threatening His Hold on Power

Alive or dead, Yahya Sinwar’s blows continue to haunt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Analysts said Operation al-Aqsa Flood ignited by the late Hamas leader, may ultimately kick Netanyahu out.

In September 2024, after six Israelis held by Hamas were killed, protests against Netanyahu surged in “Israel,” with demonstrators pressing for a prisoner exchange deal. The pressure reached an unprecedented level.

Rather than heed the protesters’ demands for a swift exchange, Netanyahu promoted leaked, falsified documents allegedly linked to Sinwar and Hamas leaders, suggesting they were opposed to a deal—a stance Netanyahu himself has taken.

These purported Hamas documents, leaked to Germany’s Bild and Britain’s Jewish Chronicle, aimed to undermine the protests and convince demonstrators they’d “fallen into Hamas’s trap,” calming tensions and allowing “military operations” in Rafah to proceed.

Two months after these documents were debunked—leading the Jewish Chronicle to dismiss the Israeli journalist who published them and retract all related reports—a formal investigation into Netanyahu was opened.

Israeli Attorney General has now sanctioned a probe into Netanyahu and his office staff, not only over the fake documents but also regarding three additional security cases, any of which could deliver a decisive blow to Netanyahu’s political career.

Four Cases

Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara permitted investigative authorities to investigate “allegations” against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Maariv reported on Friday. 

The probe focuses on four security-related cases linked to Netanyahu’s office: leaking highly classified documents to foreign newspapers, forging protocols from Israeli Occupation’s war cabinet meetings, blackmailing an Israeli officer to obtain secret documents, and the mistreatment of former War Minister Yoav Gallant, whom Netanyahu dismissed.

According to Maariv, with the attorney general’s approval, advisors can now open a formal investigation involving Netanyahu himself, as two of the cases implicate his office. However, Baharav-Miara, Shin Bet, and the police refused to officially comment on the inquiry.

Previously, Netanyahu attacked the attorney general, attempting to remove her by altering laws that would override the Israeli Supreme Court authority.

Israeli media suggest that these probes—targeting both the prime minister’s office and Netanyahu personally for involvement in serious security cases, alongside the arrest of four of his staff members—could deliver a “knockout blow” that could oust him from office or expose him to the public, accelerating calls for elections.

Per the Israeli attorney general’s office, the cases include:

The Feldstein Case: Elie Feldstein, Netanyahu’s spokesman, allegedly stole intelligence from army archives and leaked it to foreign media, aiming to influence prisoner exchange negotiations—a move difficult to imagine without Netanyahu’s knowledge.

The War Protocols Case: Netanyahu’s former army secretary, General Avi Gil, filed a complaint with the attorney general, accusing Netanyahu of altering war protocols and omitting sections to sway an official inquiry into the Israeli government's failures in predicting Operation al-Aqsa Flood launched by the Palestinian Resistance Movement (Hamas).

The High-Ranking Officer Case: This case involves two of Netanyahu's staff who allegedly blackmailed a senior army officer to obtain highly classified documents. These documents were later leaked, though doctored, to foreign media, prompting the officer to file a complaint with the Chief of Staff's office.

The Gallant Case: Dating back to October 12, 2023, this case centers around an incident where Gallant attempted to enter Netanyahu’s office during a consultation session but was blocked by the prime minister’s security—a moment captured on video.

These cases are being investigated by Police Unit 433, Shin Bet, and the Attorney General's office.

Four individuals from Netanyahu's office, including spokesman Elie Feldstein, have been detained due to security document leaks from the office. Israeli media report that these investigations could mark the final blow to Netanyahu's political career, following numerous attempts by the opposition.

Under Clause 17 of Israeli Basic Laws, an investigation involving the prime minister requires the attorney general’s approval, which Baharav-Miara has granted.

The law stipulates that if the investigation advances and implicates the prime minister in security matters, investigators must halt the probe until the attorney general grants authorization to proceed, after which the prime minister may be questioned.

Legal sources told Maariv that the attorney general’s endorsement, even after the investigation had already begun, indicates that Netanyahu could indeed become a subject of these probes.

This development unfolds amid a cascade of political and security crises for Netanyahu’s administration, including the recent dismissal of War Minister Yoav Gallant, which sparked widespread opposition, as well as the escalation of the ongoing genocide in Gaza and Lebanon.

Before the investigation into Netanyahu’s office, an Israeli court stated on November 3, 2024, that the leaks could impair the Israeli army’s ability to secure the release of Israeli captives held by Hamas in Gaza.

Welcome to Watergate Scandal, Netanyahu!

Netanyahu is currently embroiled in a scandal resembling America’s Watergate, with accusations of corruption and cover-ups at the highest levels of his administration. 

Much like U.S. President Richard Nixon's, Netanyahu's office stands accused of manipulating documents and misleading the public for political gain. This scandal exposes deeper issues of corruption within the Israeli government, paving the way for further discussions on Netayahu’s potential downfall.

The alleged documents claimed to include information from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s computer, supposedly to justify continued “military actions” and an Israeli presence along the Philadelphi Corridor at the Egyptian border.

The documents were initially published on September 6, 2024, by Bild in Germany and the Jewish Chronicle in the UK, though the latter soon deleted the story upon discovering inconsistencies. Israeli and Arabic news outlets, including Sky News Arabia and al-Arabiya, amplified the allegations.

Bild, the German newspaper, reported that Hamas was allegedly weakened militarily but intended to exploit “Israeli hostages” to incite public opinion against Netanyahu. It also claimed that Sinwar sought to flee Gaza with his family, accompanied by the captives, and escape to Iran via Sinai. 

The forged document claimed that Hamas “will try to blame Israel for the failure of the negotiations, portraying the Israeli government as rejecting the ceasefire plans presented by the U.S., which Hamas had agreed to.”

According to the Jewish Chronicle, the so-called “Sinwar’s Secret Plan to Smuggle Hostages to Iran” was based on documents allegedly retrieved by the Israeli army.

Elon Perry, the journalist behind the article, quoted Israeli intelligence sources revealing that Hamas was holding approximately 20 captives alive in Gaza, using them as human shields around Hamas’s leader.

Sinwar’s alleged plan involved escaping with Israeli captives to Iran through Sinai. Following scrutiny, the Jewish Chronicle later removed Perry’s articles and severed ties with him.

Ironically, Netanyahu used the information from Bild and the Jewish Chronicle in a speech he delivered on September 2, 2024, which has since been referred to as the “Philadelphia Address.”

He claimed that the document found was “certainly written by one of Hamas's leaders and was among Sinwar's files, including details of a psychological warfare strategy against Israel.”

However, according to Palestinian analysts, Netanyahu was fully aware that the document was false and had been fabricated by his own office.

On September 6, Haaretz also published a report alleging that Hamas had no intent to negotiate a prisoner exchange and planned to flee with Israeli captives. Meanwhile, on November 3, Yedioth Ahronoth and Israeli Army Radio reported that Elie Feldstein, Netanyahu’s spokesperson, leaked false information to foreign media, blending sensitive intelligence with fabricated claims.

Yedioth Ahronoth released a comprehensive report on September 11 discrediting Bild's claims, asserting that the supposed Hamas memo was part of an effort by Netanyahu’s office to bolster his stance against withdrawing from the Philadelphia Corridor. 

Israeli intelligence agencies have refuted the memo’s legitimacy, dismissing it as “forged,” a conclusion later underscored by the manner of Sinwar’s martyrdom: resisting the Israeli Occupation until his last breath.

Israeli newspapers have since begun debunking these documents, asserting that Netanyahu himself was behind the leaks, conveniently aligning with his agenda, giving him grounds to argue for occupying the Salah al-Din corridor, supposedly to “prevent Sinwar from moving the captives to Sinai.”

This pushed the Israeli army to launch an investigation into “the Netanyahu scandal” on September 9.

Potential Fallout for Netanyahu

In an investigative report published by Yedioth Ahronoth on November 4, 2024, journalist Ronen Bergman predicted that the case could lead to the imprisonment of senior officials within Netanyahu’s office, including the office spokesman, for up to 15 years if convicted.

Bergman’s report details how Netanyahu’s team crafted false documents to undermine any prospects for a prisoner exchange, instead fueling a narrative to justify prolonging “military engagement.” Bergman said these misleading reports, purporting to be genuine documents from Hamas leader Sinwar, were the result of careful manipulation within Netanyahu’s office.

In another investigation on November 9, Yedioth Ahronoth underscored that this scandal represents a recurring pattern for Netanyahu, citing past controversies involving leaks or doctored confidential records for political leverage. The article emphasized a sentiment shared by both Netanyahu’s supporters and critics alike: that he cannot be trusted with sensitive information, furthering calls for his removal from office.

Israeli officials have a history of leaking information to foreign outlets to get around military censorship rules, Tehilla Shwartz Altshuler of Israel Democracy Institute, told The Post.

Legally, the Shin Bet’s investigation is currently focused on the origins of the leaked information rather than the tampering itself. Given the sensitivity of the leaked intelligence, this case involves the Israeli Army Information Security Department, responsible for safeguarding critical data, raising questions about the extent of Netanyahu’s office’s access to secure army databases.

Several Israeli writers suggest that, beyond his ongoing legal battles and domestic threats of removal, Benjamin Netanyahu’s days in office may be numbered due to the newly elected U.S. President, Donald Trump.

Columnist Eran Yashiv of Haaretz said Trump won't waste any time trying to remove high-maintenance Netanyahu from power, citing the Israeli prime minister as an obstacle to Trump’s economic ambitions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Gulf states.

“The Americans have a term – ‘high-maintenance’ – for someone who requires constant attention, care, and support. Looking at Donald Trump's incentives with respect to Israel, there are good reasons, related to this colorful term, to think that it is in the interest of the president-elect to remove Benjamin Netanyahu from power,” Yashiv said.

For instance, “Israel has received close to $18 billion in military aid from the United States over the past year,” an expenditure Trump is increasingly unwilling to maintain. 

With an aversion to prolonged American financial involvement in the Middle East, Trump is now considering a financial pivot that sidelines Netanyahu, according to the writer.

Another central factor, Yashiv notes, is Trump’s keen interest in reaching a lucrative agreement with Saudi Arabia, similar to the Abraham Accords, which could yield personal financial benefits for the president and his family. However, a key Saudi stipulation for such an accord is the establishment of a Palestinian state, a condition Netanyahu and his right-wing allies reject. According to Yashiv, the Saudis would thus demand Netanyahu’s ouster as a prerequisite.

Further, Trump feels no loyalty toward Netanyahu; in fact, their relationship soured after Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 election victory, something Trump found particularly offensive. With no re-election concerns and freed from campaign obligations, Trump’s political calculus no longer includes promises to the Israeli leader.

How would Trump “remove” Netanyahu? Yashiv answers, “In my view, in two ways. First, by sending a message to Israeli parties, especially the ultra-Orthodox parties, that Netanyahu's ‘career is over.’ They would likely fall in line quickly.”

“Second, by exerting financial pressure and using a carrot-and-stick approach with Netanyahu, his Likud party, and other power brokers. At best, he will ease him out of power.”

Ultimately, the writer underscores Trump’s apparent disinterest in supporting Netanyahu for an extended term. With no option of a third presidential term, Trump has little incentive to continue accommodating Netanyahu.