After the Dissolution of the British Parliament: Will Sunak Lose His Premiership?

In a move that signals the beginning of a highly anticipated political contest, the British Parliament was dissolved to allow for early elections in the UK.

This procedural step paves the way for the upcoming early elections, a decision made by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the wake of significant electoral setbacks for his Conservative Party and the surging momentum of the Labour opposition.

Prime Minister Sunak, who has led the government for two years, is now entering an election campaign fraught with uncertainty.

His bid for a second term is shadowed not only by the waning support for his party but also by internal strife that threatens his leadership position.

Conservative Dissolve

Reports have surfaced suggesting that Sunak is struggling to maintain cohesion within the Conservative Party’s inner circles.

This is compounded by the emergence of a homegrown opposition movement and a series of defections among his deputies.

The internal discord within the Conservative Party has become increasingly public. The Guardian has reported that several Conservative MPs have broken ranks to endorse candidates from other parties for the early elections set for July 4.

In a notable instance, Lucy Allan, the Conservative MP for Telford, voiced her support for Reform Party candidate Alan Adams.

The Conservative Party swiftly responded by suspending Allan’s membership, a move she countered by stating her prior resignation.

The party’s discontent with its leader has been further highlighted by Northern Ireland Minister Steve Baker, who has openly supported the Labour Party’s proposal for mandatory national service.

Baker’s decision to vacation abroad rather than participate in the campaign trail has also drawn criticism.

Zac Goldsmith, a former Conservative MP and minister who resigned from the party, has been particularly vocal in his censure of Sunak, accusing him of inflicting near-irreparable damage on the party.

Goldsmith’s departure was motivated by his perception of Sunak’s lack of commitment to environmental issues.

The Guardian points to a range of political challenges that are fueling the conflict between the Prime Minister and his internal adversaries.

Key among these are the contentious policies on illegal immigration and the proposed deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda, which some observers believe could jeopardize Sunak’s leadership.

In a recent statement, Goldsmith expressed a bleak outlook for Sunak’s tenure, suggesting that the Prime Minister’s departure for California might be imminent and hoping that respectable figures within the party would remain to lead a rebuilding effort.

Polling data indicates a decline in Sunak’s popularity, both within the Conservative Party, where approval has dropped to 49%, and across the broader UK population, where only 20% hold a favorable view of his leadership, compared to a 71% negative perception.

Local Elections

A report from Politico highlighted that Sunak, bombarded with months of bad news, is grasping for any semblance of good fortune.

Had it not been for the narrow re-election victories of several Conservative candidates in local municipalities, a more intense backlash against Sunak within his party might have been expected.

Despite these slim victories, apprehension lingers among conservatives, fueled by the Labour Party's success in closing the popularity gap — a gap not seen this narrow since 2019, according to recent polls.

Current polls suggest Labour commands 45% of the vote compared to the Conservatives' 23%.

This disparity, within the framework of the simple majority voting system, suggests a substantial win for Labour.

Sunak’s decision to call early elections appears to be a strategic attempt to outmaneuver his party adversaries, leveraging recent governmental successes such as the initial signs of economic recovery post-Ukraine war and progress on the controversial plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Sunak is also banking on the element of surprise, hoping it disrupts the election process favorably for him, despite analysts warning of the considerable risks.

Polls indicate a daunting 20-point deficit for the Conservatives against Labour. British political commentators are skeptical about the success of Sunak's gamble.

Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, remarked that the election timing startled many Conservatives, who had anticipated it would align more closely with the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November.

Maddox said that Sunak viewed holding elections in the fall as an optimal strategy to improve his image amid signs of an economic upturn, falling house prices, and decreasing energy bill concerns.

However, his choice not to allow these indicators more time to manifest is surprising, according to Maddox.

Conversely, some argue that the Conservatives’ poor performance in local elections does not guarantee a Labour landslide.

Hannah Bunting, a lecturer at the University of Exeter, noted that while the Conservatives fared poorly in local elections, it was the smaller parties and independents, rather than Labour, who emerged as the real winners.

Bunting concluded, “If this trend translates to the general election, Labour’s victory may not be as overwhelming as current projections suggest.”