After al-Sudani’s Visit, Will France Penetrate the US–Iranian Hegemony Over Iraq?

Iraq and France concluded a strategic partnership agreement, the first and most comprehensive since 1986. It consists of four chapters, six sections, 50 articles, 64 paragraphs and points, and includes investments and cooperation in various fields, especially defense and energy.

The agreement was signed by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Sabbar al-Sudani and French President Emmanuel Macron inside the Elysee Palace during a one-day visit to Paris on January 27, 2023, his first since he took over the prime minister three months ago.

 

Strategic Partnership

The agreement concluded by the two parties was huge and diversified in various sectors, but the most prominent of what it included, according to the official Iraqi News Agency (INA), is “encouraging investments by French companies and encouraging good governance in managing natural resources, especially water, developing renewable energies and raising reproductive capacities” for electric power stations.

This detail related to the electricity sector included “improving the management and maintenance of the transmission and distribution network to reduce losses, develop generation projects, build new power stations, and work on implementing gas investment projects associated with electricity production.”

On January 27, the agency stated that the agreement also included “improving public transportation programs in cities to contribute to mitigating harmful emissions by implementing appropriate projects through the implementation of the suspended Baghdad metro project.”

For its part, the Elysee Palace said in a statement that the strategic partnership agreement comes in order to strengthen bilateral relations and establish a formal and permanent framework for the diverse and comprehensive relationships in various fields of cooperation.

The statement saw al-Sudani’s visit as an opportunity to reaffirm the depth of the friendship ties that unite France and Iraq, pointing out that Macron had assured al-Sudani of France’s desire to stand by the Iraqi government as long as it wanted to fight ISIS.

In the same context, the office of the Iraqi Prime Minister issued a statement on January 27 in which al-Sudani affirmed that “the strategic partnership agreement represents a cooperation framework in all fields.”

He added: “The entry of French companies into Iraq for investment will be the right decision. Our visit to France and the countries of the world is not about protocol, but rather deliberate visits aimed at achieving serious economic partnerships.”

In the field of energy, al-Sudani stressed that “the government prioritizes investment in associated gas and renewable energy, as well as other investment opportunities in the petrochemical sector, transportation, and iron and steel sectors.”

He continued: “The Iraqi government has been working since day one to improve the business environment in Iraq, to carry out structural reform in the economy and the financial sector, as well as its seriousness in combating corruption. Securing the work of foreign companies in Iraq is a firm commitment of the government.”

On the other hand, Hussein Allawi, advisor to the Prime Minister, indicated during a press statement on January 28 that “Iraq is in the process of buying French Rafale fighters to develop the Iraqi air fleet.”

Allawi said that al-Sudani is heading to “develop the Iraqi air fleet by bringing in advanced Rafale planes, given the shift in Iraq’s financial capabilities and the military need for these planes in order to pursue ISIS militants in open and agricultural areas.”

 

Iran and America

Regarding the possibility of applying this agreement, Hamid al-Obaidi, a researcher on Iraqi affairs, said, “Al-Sudani is trying to send a message to the West that he is far from Iran, by concluding agreements, whether with France or Germany a few days ago.”

He explained to Al-Estiklal: “Agreements have been signed by the Iraqi governments since 2003 and until today, yet we have not seen anything on the ground since then in terms of the files that they contracted for; for example, the construction of the Baghdad metro that we heard a French company will implement since twenty years ago did not happen until today.”

He pointed out that “the agreements have no value without implementation. The former Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, met Macron and talked about projects, but the Shiite coordination framework, to which al-Sudani belongs, accused France of interfering in Iraqi affairs. Today, they support the steps of al-Sudani, so are we witnessing the realization of these agreements? Personally, I do not think so.”

The researcher pointed out that “Iran is the largest beneficiary of the export of gas and electricity to Iraq and will not allow the implementation of the associated gas investment agreement and the development of the electricity sector by French companies.”

In terms of purchasing aircraft and armaments, al-Obaidi saw that “Iraq has been seeking for a long time after 2003 to diversify its sources of weapons, but it did not succeed in that because America dominates this file, so I do not think that the French Rafale aircraft deal will take place, as Iraq had previously wanted to purchase the Russian S-300, but that did not happen, because Washington prevented it.”

Similarly, Iraqi political analyst Thaer al-Bayati said on Twitter on January 27, “France has no place in Iraq because the UK and America think Iraq is theirs. France knows that very well.”

Al-Bayati continued, saying: “More importantly, the coordination framework since al-Jaafari took office [Prime Minister of Iraq in 2005] to al-Sudani now, passing through all previous governments, did not implement any agreement signed with any country. The question: What messages did al-Sudani carry on behalf of Iran?”

 

No Real Efforts

Iraqi political analyst Khalil al-Obaidi said: “What matters in these agreements is the extent of al-Sudani’s ability to activate them because Iraq really needs to move on; all that France needs is in Iraq: energy, oil, water, and youthful energy.”

During a television interview on January 27, he asked: “Does the al-Sudani government have the will to implement such agreements, unlike previous governments? Because the situation in Iraq has really worsened, and there has been rampant corruption since 2003, and for that, an agreement was reached with France in the field of combating corruption as well.”

Al-Obaidi pointed out that “French companies are looking for job opportunities, especially in light of the energy scarcity, but there are regional and other major countries that do not want this agreement to be implemented because it conflicts with their interests, so the matter depends on the will of the al-Sudani.”

He continued: “In light of the Russian war on Ukraine, the energy and food market in the world is disturbed, so the energy sector is important for the French company Total, and therefore a safe environment must be created for it through political agreements inside Iraq and not reaching the stage of disputes.”

Al-Obaidi expressed his belief that “this agreement, if applied and implemented properly, will change the life of the Iraqi citizen, especially since France has experience in Iraq and was present in the seventies, and it also has positions in eliminating terrorism and armed groups.”

Regarding the issue of armaments and the extent to which it conflicts with Iraq’s security agreements with the United States, al-Obaidi said: “France and America must agree with each other, and there should be transparency on the issue, especially since the two are allies in the war against Russia, so I do not think it contradicts American interests.”

He pointed out that “the United States has not provided anything in Iraq for two decades, especially in the electricity file, during the very hot summer in the country, so we hope that Iraq’s money will be invested with solid international companies.”

The signing of the agreement between Paris and Baghdad comes a month after the French president participated in a regional conference to support Iraq in Jordan, in which he affirmed his “investment” in this country, which occupies great importance in the Middle East, and Macron has visited him twice since he came to power in 2017.

On December 20, 2022, Macron—during this conference, which was titled 2nd Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership with the participation of 12 Arab and regional countries—called on Baghdad to take a path other than “the model dictated by the outside.”