Dangerous Scenarios Expected by Russia and America in the Black Sea

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It seems that the world is on the brink of a major global conflict that may lead to a third World War. This is what the strategies of Europe, America and NATO seem to draw in the Black Sea and the Western Balkans facing Russia. This is what is revealed by the days until 2030.

The Turkish "Strategic Thinking Institute" published an article by the writer "Bulent Arandic" in which he said: "The Balkans began to boil again with reckless maneuvers in the Black Sea."

He pointed out that Russia and America are preparing "dangerous scenarios" for each other, so that the Black Sea becomes a "powder barrel" ready to explode at any time.

The Strategic Institute drew attention to developments that occurred in June 2021, which would attract the world's attention around the Black Sea.

The Eight Titles

In an attempt to present a clearer picture, Arandic reviewed the titles of these developments, pointing out that they are 8 and the world should pay attention to their effects.

The first headlines, according to the Turkish writer, are "Defining NATO's strategy until 2030 in Brussels, and NATO's declaration that Ukraine and Georgia, which have coasts on the Black Sea, will become members."

In the second headline, he referred to "Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat that the West should bear the consequences if you make Ukraine and Georgia members of NATO."

"A strategic meeting was held between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Joe Biden, and after that, Biden and Putin held a bilateral meeting, which some called (the second Yalta)", the third title, according to the Turkish Institute.

The "Yalta Conference" represents an important turning point in history, as US President Franklin Roosevelt, former Soviet Union leader Joseph Stalin, and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill met.

That meeting took place before the end of World War II 1945, in "Yalta", near the Ukrainian Odessa on the coast of the Black Sea, and they divided the world, so that the West and the East became a separate axis.

That encounter later led to the start of the Cold War between the liberal West and the communist Soviet Union, which lasted until 1991.

The fourth headline is "The British warship, one of the NATO countries, entered the Black Sea in accordance with the Montreux Convention, and when it entered the territorial waters of the Crimea, the Russian Navy moved and chased the British ship and fired warning fire."

On top of that, an interesting thing happened; Top-secret documents relating to the British warship's operation in Crimea were accidentally found at a bus station in England.

In the fifth title, which refers to the intensity of the conflict between Washington and Moscow in the Black Sea, according to the Turkish Institute, "NATO is conducting its largest maneuvers in the Black Sea to threaten Russia."

Sixth: "President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a long meeting with President Putin," according to Arendic.

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's sudden arrival in Antalya and his stay at the guest of his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu for the first time in two years" is the seventh important headline.

He pointed out that "while Lavrov mentioned that the Black Sea file was dealt with in long meetings, the statement made by the veteran Russian minister was very remarkable, as he said what it means: "The Istanbul Canal project is compatible with the Montreux Convention," which contradicts the previous Russian vision that opposes Turkish Canal Project.

The latest headlines mentioned by the Turkish Strategic Institute are "German Chancellor Angela Merkel detonates the last bomb. She said: "We must make all Western Balkan countries members of the European Union (ie NATO)".

The Turkish writer considered that Merkel's statement "would drive Putin crazy", in other words, she made a strategic move towards the Balkans, which Putin considers his backyard.

“All these developments are linked to each other, and we must see the results of these strategic moves until 2030, and closely monitor together whether they will lead to a global or regional war. The signs are many and the possibilities are increasing,” according to the author.

 

Start Signal

When the British warship Defender encountered warning fire launched by Russia off the coast of Crimea, it marked the beginning of an era of tension in the Black Sea.

The Turkish writer added: "You should record the date of June 14, 2021, as the bilateral meetings of leaders and the strategic decisions taken on this day hold the keys to the important geopolitical and geoeconomic developments that will occur in the 21st century.

The inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO is one of the most important provisions of the NATO 2030 strategy, and it also angered Putin, as the accession of these two countries to NATO means that Russia's back garden will be under the control of America (ie, NATO), according to the Turkish writer.

He explained: "The Black Sea is the lifeline of Russia, as it includes its largest naval fleet, and is of great strategic importance because it surrounds it like an arc, so America wants to control it to besiege Russia, and indeed, after the announcement of the strategy, one of the largest naval maneuvers was conducted there. ".

After that, NATO exercises "Sea Breeze" began in the Black Sea on June 28, 2021, to be recorded as the largest naval exercise ever in the history of the Black Sea, as 32 countries participated with 40 ships, 40 warplanes and 5,000 soldiers.

He said: It is remarkable that countries that have nothing to do with the Black Sea, such as Japan, South Korea and Brazil, participated in the maneuvers, as Washington's goal is to send a message that it cannot leave the Black Sea to Russia, and that it can openly wave its flag in the region.

The Russian president commented on the maneuver, saying: “This happened just days after the Russian summit with America in Geneva. Why did they make a provocative move that includes sending a warship to Crimea? To prove that they do not respect the opinion of Crimea, the world would not have been on the threshold of a third world war, if we had sunk that ship."

With these words, Putin says indirectly that they could and still "sink the British ship" in such a situation, and there is no doubt that such a statement is intentional and planned and that it carries a deep message of meaning and connotations about the future of the Black Sea, according to what the Turkish writer sees.

 

Erdogan's Diplomacy

Arandic added, "Erdogan met with Putin, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov came to Turkey the day after the NATO maneuvers in the Black Sea, and he held a meeting with his counterpart Cavusoglu, which was the focus of the world's attention."

Lavrov's visit to Turkey after a break of more than two years is very important, and after the meeting it was announced that Ankara and Moscow discussed the situations in "the South Caucasus, the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea."

But at a time when it was decided that German Chancellor Merkel would travel to Washington on July 15, 2021, to hold a bilateral meeting with US President Biden, Merkel made a statement that would affect the fate of the Balkans, anger Putin and increase tension over the “Turkish presence in Balkans,” the Turkish writer notes.

He explains this by saying: As Merkel said: that the countries of the Western Balkans should become members of the European Union in the future "for geostrategic reasons." After the Western Balkan Summit, Merkel stressed the importance of Western Balkan countries' cooperation in the region and their endeavors to join the European Union. "This is about the future of the region," she said.

Merkel stated that the importance of this process was linked to the EU's own interests and said: "Besides the geostrategic reasons, there are many reasons why the region is part of Europe and why we want to be a member of the European Union."

Referring to the background to Merkel's geo-political statement, the writer said: Let's take a closer look; When the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia began in 1991, it entered a civil war to eventually split into seven countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Serbia, Karadag, and Kosovo, according to deep American and European plans.

He continued, "These countries became called the Western Balkan countries, and the Berlin process launched by Merkel in 2014, directed to the Western Balkan countries in addition to Albania, was a step to solve the problems between them, and with the start of the process, the European Union began to intervene directly in the region under the leadership of Germany".

He noted, "The main objective of the operation was to preserve the large and fundamental role of the Western Balkan countries which they played in terms of energy security and the gas corridor in Europe and Southeast Europe. Therefore, the integration of the Western Balkan countries into the European energy system was one of the important objectives of the Berlin Process."

"Thus, both Merkel and Biden want to deepen the Western siege on Russia by making the western Balkan countries members of the European Union and thus NATO, but there is something that bothers Merkel," says the writer.

Busy Job

Arandic continues: "The countries of the Western Balkans are very interested in our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the mind of the Turkish state, in addition to the bridges of friendship and brotherhood that link Turkey to those countries, and their influence."

"All this disturbs the European Union and motivates countries such as Germany and France to closely follow Turkey's bilateral relations with these countries."

He added, "Of course, geopolitics and the energy equation are important pillars in this follow-up, as Turkey is a vital country in terms of energy supply security."

Natural gas, which passes through the pipelines of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as the pipelines of the Turkish Stream, which passes through Russia and Turkey, plays its role in determining the fate of Europe.

In addition, Turkey's historical relations with the Western Balkan countries, its geostrategic location, and its strong relations with these countries in all dimensions annoy the leaders of the European Union, since their hostile attitudes toward Turkey do not work.

Here, it should not be overlooked that one of the pillars of the ongoing tension with Greece is the obstruction of the old Turkish relations with the countries of the Western Balkans.

In this, writing new equations for America, Russia, China and the European Union, and moving them according to their interests without taking into account the dynamics in the region, will lead to the emergence of new conflicts, according to the writer's warning.

He stresses that Turkey, which is aware of its strength and always stands by the Western Balkan countries because of the historical responsibility it bears, constitutes a balancing factor that has the ability to prevent internal conflicts always in the Western Balkans.

He points to Turkey's key role in the Balkans, as well as in the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and China's Belt and Road land and sea project in the Middle East, North Africa and the Caucasus, in the context of Erdogan's geopolitical moves or the mind of the Turkish state.

He concludes his article by saying: "It is also the most powerful player on the global chess table, as Turkey is a country that has a major role in the conflict between East and West (Russia and America), and no game can be launched (in terms of the consequences of Turkey's exclusion) without placing Turkey as a regional power on the Mediterranean and Black Sea lines.

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