Turkish Academic: America's New Position on the Houthis is an "Olive Branch" for Iran

“Happy Yemen”,  the Arab country with an important historic background, is looking for someone to save it from the bloody internal war crisis that erupted in September 2014, and is supported by external parties, but it seems that the solution will come through the Afghan way.

Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Mardin Artuklu University, Turkish academic Nejmeddin Ajer, published an article in the Turkish “Anadolu” agency, about the possibilities of ending the internal crisis in Yemen due to the international and regional winds of change taking place since the beginning of the year 2021.

Najmeddin Ajer said that "the latest statements of the US special envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, about the Houthis and the conflict in Yemen should be evaluated as a prelude to a policy similar to what was followed in Afghanistan."

The US administration of President Joe Biden made a historic decision to end the 20-year occupation of Afghanistan after Washington gave up and accepted the political reality in that Muslim country in Central Asia.

In his article, the Turkish academic indicated great expectations on the international scene of large-scale changes in US foreign policy in general and Middle East policy in particular with the beginning of the Joe Biden era.

"Washington reinforced these expectations by announcing its report on the killing of the Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi, in his country's consulate in Istanbul in October 2021, as well as the arms embargo on the UAE and Saudi Arabia and the withdrawal of the US army from Afghanistan," according to Ajer.

He believes that "the role came to the Iranian nuclear agreement and the end of the war on Yemen," stressing that the recent developments in the Middle East are closely linked to the great global and regional wave of change, in addition to the American foreign policy that changed with the Biden government.

 

The Changes

Ajer said, "The politics of the Middle East give important signs of change, which began with the winds of change that ended the siege on Qatar, in early 2021, and continued with the warm messages sent by the Riyadh administration to Tehrane."

He continued, "At a time when the competing and hostile parties in the region began to moderate their policies, Israel's aggressive policies toward Jerusalem and Gaza swept the scene during May 2021 and Eid al-Fitr."

He believes that "although the Israeli aggression sparked violence in the region, the change in regional policy still exists in the current period."

He explained this by saying: On June 27, 2012, the head of the Egyptian regime, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, visited Baghdad, considering that "this is a very important development."

This is the first visit by an Egyptian president to Iraq in more than three decades.

According to the Turkish academic, the Egyptian-Iraqi rapprochement "generates new dynamics in the Gulf region, since they are two actors that have competed for leadership in the Arab world for many years."

We also recently witnessed the resumption of Saudi Arabia's annual oil aid of $1.5 billion to Pakistan.

That aid began in the 1990s to ease Western sanctions on Pakistan over its nuclear activities, but Riyadh suspended it because Pakistan did not send ground forces to support it in the Yemen war.

These changes, according to Ajer, "reflect the efforts of the Arab bloc consisting of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to compensate for its military failures against Iran with diplomatic and economic cards."

"Riyadh has always tried hard to send Egyptian and Pakistani ground forces on the fronts of Yemen and Syria, and to achieve this, it announced generous financial support for both countries," he said.

However, the policy of "open checks" did not provide the desired benefit; Neither Egypt nor Pakistan involved their ground forces in the hot war, despite Saudi pressure and generous assistance, according to the Turkish writer.

And he continued, "Above that, the UAE left alone its ally Saudi Arabia  was left alone in the middle of the war, and Trump, Riyadh's largest supporter, lost the US elections at the end of the year 2020."

The Yemeni Dilemma

Ajer added, "The Yemen war was a plan of action for the young crown prince to ascend the Saudi throne."

He explained that it was planned that Ibn Salman would enter Sanaa as a "conqueror", in less than 6 months, and sit on the throne without his rivals from his powerful cousins ​​thanks to this success.

He pointed to the Saudis' belief that Yemen represents the biggest threat to the country's stability since King Abdulaziz bin Saud, the founder of Saudi Arabia.

He added: Rather, it is said that Abdulaziz, who died in 1953, made a will for his children on his deathbed, to “keep Yemen weak.”

But the Saudis were unable to establish a political system that would work for them despite their military, economic and diplomatic efforts. On top of that, they left a "collapsed state" along the 1,600 km southern border, according to the Turkish academic.

He believes that "the Houthis control today a large area in Yemen, including its capital, Sana'a, and are trying hard to control the rest, despite the Saudi intervention."

He pointed out, "The Houthis have recently increased pressure on the important city of Marib, which is an important matter that reflects the political reality on the ground."

He says: "The successes of the Houthis, and the weakness of Saudi Arabia, in the military field, made the Houthis an important player in the country's politics."

He pointed out that Linderking's statements about the Houthis, that America recognizes them as a "legitimate actor", "...let's deal with the facts on the ground," is Washington's recognition of the Houthis' victory, even if this was corrected by later statements.

He referred to what he considered a "known fact" that Saudi Arabia is very willing to get out of the "quagmire" of Yemen, and that the negotiations brokered by Oman come to this goal.

He asserted that Oman's position not to join the Saudis in the war in Yemen and to stand by the Yemeni people during the war made the Muscat administration an actor that the Houthis respect.

He stressed that "making progress in such diplomatic initiatives, which Washington supports, seems very difficult given the wide gaps in the two sides' vision and their tough stance in the negotiations."

He believes that Linderking defines the Houthis as the "legitimate actor", and he believes in his statement that the Houthis are not the only ones responsible for the escalation of violence in the country.

His saying that the responsibility lies with Saudi Arabia as well, and that the Houthis are "an integral part of any peace process in Yemen", is like a pressure on the Saudi side to change its stance.

He believes that we must acknowledge that America's shift in attitude toward the Houthis also represents an olive branch that it is extending to Iran over the Iranian nuclear agreement.

He added: Perhaps Washington, in this way, aims to stop the attacks of Iranian-backed militias against US bases in Syria and Iraq as well.

He alluded to the announcement by these militias on July 5, 2021, that they had decided to stop the attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq.

"It can be said that Washington aims to soften Saudi Arabia's opposition to a possible Iranian nuclear deal and warn it of an escalation of violence in the region, by referring to the possibility of its recognition of a hostile structure in Yemen as an official actor." According to the Turkish writer.

New Vision

Ajer said: “It is well known that America would have abandoned the policies of intervention based on military force under Biden, and Barack Obama, to whom Biden served as his longtime aide, drew the boundaries of this vision in American foreign policy.

He adds: "The Obama Doctrine" that he put forward, which the Saudis call "Ayato allah", became the main slogan of American foreign policy after Biden, who won the last elections.

He explained that "what confirms this is America's withdrawal from Afghanistan, although this means handing over the country to the Taliban movement, and its keenness to return to the Iranian nuclear agreement."

He continued: Today, balancing the escalating threat to Russia and China, and enhancing their military, economic and technological capabilities, are the most important topics on Washington's foreign policy agenda.

It does not favor policies that escalate violence on geopolitical grounds, since they constitute a fertile ground for America and its allies, especially in the Middle East, and increase its defense and security burden, according to the Turkish academic.

He explains: "Although it is known that the administration of Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Hadi Mansour, which is internationally recognized as a legitimate government, cannot continue without Saudi support, the Biden administration is forcing the Saudis to withdraw from Yemen."

He hinted that this "indicates that it wants to leave running the country to the Houthis, just as it did in Afghanistan (and left the country to the Taliban)."

He believes that "if the war in Yemen cannot be ended soon, the two most important allies of America in the region are likely to be destabilized: Saudi Arabia and Israel."

He added, "Riyadh is pursuing ambitious and adventurous policies that increase the defense and security burden on Washington, and carry unacceptable risks for the US administration."

Ajer concluded his article by saying: The statements of Biden's special envoy to Yemen, who described the Houthis as "legitimate actors," remind us of Obama's advice to Saudi Arabia during his presidency that "you must share the Middle East with your Iranian enemies."