Is Moscow Using Its Military Presence in Moldova to Open a New Front Against Ukraine?

A few days ago, Russia threatened Moldova, calling it not to attack its forces in the breakaway region of Transnistria.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Moldova: "Any attack on our forces in the breakaway region will be met with military action," according to Reuters reported on September 1, 2022.

Lavrov's latest speech confirmed speculation in Western circles that Russian forces, which are slowly advancing in the Ukrainian west, would advance into Transnistria and use it as a springboard for further operations in Ukraine or even a future invasion of Moldova.

Russia maintains a military force of more than 1,500 soldiers in Transnistria, which was separated from Moldova with the help of Moscow, during a civil war between 1990 and 1992. As Russian forces also guard a large ammunition depot in the breakaway region.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Moldova has faced many crises, taking in more Ukrainian refugees than any other country and witnessing an escalation of tension in the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria. It is also facing a severe energy crisis and is battling hyperinflation.

 

Destabilization

In response to the Russian threats, the Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the acting Chargé d'Affaires of the Russian Federation in Chisinau to clarify the circumstances of the recent statements made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Balkan Insight network reported in a report on September 2 that since the Russian military operation in Ukraine last February, fears have been raised that Russia will use Transnistria to inflame the situation on the side of Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Minister warned in early September that any actions that would endanger the security of Russian soldiers in Transnistria would be interpreted by Moscow, according to international law, as an attack on the Russian Federation and would be met with military action, as he says.

Lavrov made no distinction between the peacekeepers, which Moldova seeks to replace with the United Nations, and the illegally stationed forces, which Moldova insists must be removed, alleging that the Moldovan authorities avoid direct dialogue with Transnistria because they prefer to settle the dispute in other ways.

In turn, the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, responded to Lavrov: "It is Russia that has constantly launched provocations against Moldova since it attacked Ukraine, and Russia, not Moldova, should provide explanations when it comes to launching attacks."

She noted that her country took all opportunities to affirm its commitment to accepting a peaceful settlement of the conflict over Transnistria, but Lavrov's statements aimed at destabilizing the situation in Moldova.

Moldova's foreign ministry Spokesperson, Daniel Voda, said in a statement that his country has consistently called for a diplomatic settlement of the Transnistria issue.

In an interview with CNN on July 24, Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita expressed her country's grave concern over a possible Russian invasion at a time when Russian forces are preparing to escalate attacks in eastern and southern Ukraine.

"It is a hypothetical scenario at the moment, but if military operations move to the southwestern part of Ukraine and towards Odesa, in conjunction with the movements of forces in Transnistria, the situation will become very difficult," Gavrilita said.

"If a country can launch a war of annexation without any regard for international law, as you know, then in that context, no one is safe, and I think a lot of countries are concerned," the Prime Minister warned.

 

 Breakaway Region

Moldova declared its independence in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and at the same time, Transnistria declared its independence from Moldova unilaterally.

The area of the breakaway region is about 4,000 square kilometers, a third of its population is Russian-speaking, and the other two-thirds speak Ukrainian and Moldovan, and its population is about half a million people.

Transnistria is not recognized by any member state of the United Nations, but it has its own political entity, parliament, army, bank, and currency (the ruble).

While Moldova demands that the territory be included in its territory, which it considers part of it, the other side, backed by Russia, demands recognition as a state.

Transnistria also has its own flag, consisting of a Soviet-style hammer and sickle, and an identity separate from the rest of Moldova, with roots dating back to the 1920s.

After Transnistria declared its independence, tensions with Moldova escalated and turned into a military conflict in March 1992 that killed at least 1,000 people and ended with an armistice in July of the same year.

Since 1993, there have been only some minor violations of that armistice, and talks to resolve the region's crisis under the umbrella of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have been ongoing since that time.

In recent years, the breakaway region has demonstrated a strong tendency toward Russia, both at the grassroots level and at the government level.

A referendum was held in 2006 to determine whether the population wanted to give up their autonomy and integrate with Moldova or seek independence and possibly join Russia in the future. The results reveal a great orientation to preserve the region's status and seek unity with Russia.

In turn, Nasr al-Yousef, a researcher in Russian affairs, explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that "with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, an entire army and huge arms depots remained in Transnistria, as well as a weapons factory, most of whose employees were Russian-speaking. Consequently, Russia retained this region and demanded some kind of autonomy in order to keep it as a pretext and an advanced base for it, and this was done for it due to the disparity in the balance of power between Russia and all the former Soviet republics."

He added, "It is certain that the entry of the region into the war will contribute to the dispersal of the defending Ukrainian forces, but I think that Russia is currently not in a state of distress so that it needs to involve additional forces in its battle against Ukraine, and if Russia feels embarrassed, there is no moral or immoral impediment to prevent it from using these forces."

Regarding the reasons for Russia's interest in Moldova, the researcher emphasized that "the Moldovan issue is not very different from the Ukrainian issue, given that Putin's Russia wants to keep all the former Soviet republics under its tutelage."

In the event that Russia attacks Moldova, Mr. al-Youssef indicated that "the position of Western countries and NATO will be similar to what was taken in Ukraine, but it may be with a more severe tone because Moldova has entered into the so-called Eastern Partnership Project, and it is a candidate member to enter the European Union," stressing that "the West, in general, will do its utmost to confront the Russian incursion into Eastern Europe."

 

Imminent War

Moldova has recently witnessed a wave of bomb threats in strategic areas of the country. As observers are likely to be exposed to attempts to destabilize the small country that is not a member of the European Union or NATO, in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Since the beginning of last July, Moldova has received about 60 bomb threats in locations ranging from the capital's city hall, the airport, and the Supreme Court, in addition to shopping centers and hospitals, the Associated Press reported on August 19.

No one has yet been charged over the threats, most of which were sent via email, and all turned out to be false, but officials said they traced computer addresses to Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

"This is part of an ongoing disinformation war against Moldova. It could be part of the Russian effort to destabilize Moldova because they use many different methods to do so," said Valeriu Pasa, an analyst at the Chisinau-based think-tank WatchDog Community.

Observers pointed out that the explosions coincided with Moldova showing a growing Western orientation after it applied for membership in the European Union shortly after the invasion of Ukraine.

The bomb threats also coincided with the plan to join Transnistria to the Russian Federation announced by Vitaly Ignatiev, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the region, on July 22, 2022, in addition to a wave of pro-Russian separatism in the autonomous region of Gagauzia in southern Moldova.

In turn, the Moldovan government suspects that these developments around the demands for the accession of the breakaway region to Russia and the start of threats of bombs in Moldova come as a reaction to the European Union's acceptance of Moldova as a candidate member on June 23.

In April, a series of explosions hit Transnistria, heightening tensions in Moldova. It is not yet clear who was responsible for the attacks and what kind of plans Moscow had for Transnistria or Moldova more broadly.

On his part, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Cyprian warned that a breakaway official's demand for Russia to annex the region of Transnistria, and repeated bomb threats aimed at paralyzing the country's capital, may be a prelude to a pro-Russian military operation against his country, The Times reported on August 8, 2022.

He also warned that his government could be drawn into a war outside its borders as Ukraine prepares to regain control of its Black Sea coast.

"This is a clear provocation. The idea that they should gain independence is an old idea, but the need for them to join Russia was unexpected, and it was the first time they had said so," Cyprian added.

He pointed out that the war in Ukraine is a source of concern for Moldova and said that there is concern that the invitation of Transnistria to join Russia is not just an announcement but rather a prelude to an operation in Moldova.

Last July, French President Emmanuel Macron also reaffirmed his support for Moldova, which indicates a heightened awareness of the possibility of a Russian invasion, and possibly suggesting that NATO countries would help Europe's poorest country defend itself against a hypothetical invasion.

In turn, Alexander Baunov, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment, Moscow, said in a statement to Bloomberg on May 15, 2022, that Russia may open other fronts in case Putin needs to camouflage its failure in Ukraine inside a bigger crisis.

The Director of National Intelligence in the United States, Avril Haines, also suggested that Putin would aim to seize lands in eastern and southern Ukraine, through Transnistria, as part of a protracted war.

According to the American Defense News website, Transnistria seems, in theory, an ideal place to occupy for Russian forces. In addition to having a garrison of pro-Russian forces, the region also stores 20,000 tons of weapons, which the Russian army had stashed there in the early 1990s when it withdrew from Moldova.

But despite these fears, reinforced by the statements of the commander in the Russian army, Major General Rustam Minnekayev, that Russia seeks to control parts of the territory extending to Moldova, the issue is not that easy.

According to the Washington Post on April 26, analysts believe that it is unlikely that the Russian army, which is engaged in a battle for control of eastern Ukraine, will be able to blaze such a path.

Also, despite Transnistria being supported by Moscow and hosting Russian forces, this does not mean that its residents want to participate in the war, the newspaper noted.

On its part, The New York Times reported in a report that "the goals revealed by the Russian Major General are much more ambitious than those set by Russian President Vladimir Putin, several months ago, which focused on controlling the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine."

The newspaper believes that these goals do not seem realistic, at least for the time being, noting that it is unclear whether Minnekayev's statements reflect Putin's plans for war or aim to distract and confuse Ukraine with expectations of intensifying battles in the coming period.

Despite all the developments, Moldova is currently in an unstable state, as it still depends on Moscow for the majority of its energy supplies, is subject to propaganda spread by Russian television networks that are still broadcast throughout the country, and is politically divided.