Is the UK Heading Towards Disintegration?
Northern Ireland witnessed a political earthquake after Sinn Fein topped Ireland's National Assembly (Stormont) election, which is considered the parliament of the province that has been experiencing tension since Brexit, for the first time in a hundred years, with the risk of political paralysis looming.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party took a heavy blow after losing hundreds of seats and dozens of councils to the Labour, which wrested three Conservative strongholds in London (Wandsworth, Westminster, and Brant), the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party, and the Green Party.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party strengthened its position, followed by the Labour Party, which grabbed second place from the Conservative Party, while the Labour Party remained in first place in Wales.
That is why political analysts agreed that the election results, which they described as historic and unprecedented, could have irreversible constitutional implications for relations between the four countries that make up the United Kingdom, according to what the Guardian observer concluded in its report on 08 May 2022.
Political Earthquake
Days ago, Britons voted in a local election that seemed crucial to Northern Ireland, after Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army, scored its first electoral victory since the province was founded in 1921.
Sinn Fein, a supporter of reunification with the Republic of Ireland, led the elections after the vote on Thursday, May 05, 2022, winning 27 out of 90 seats, compared to 25 for his rival, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
This victory is a milestone in this sensitive area of Europe under British control, with a population of 1.9 million, because it makes the nationalists who want to secede from the kingdom and unite the Irish island at the forefront of the political scene, and they have the ability to push for actual secession from the British crown, according to as reported by the Associated Press on May 08, 2022.
It is also indicated that Sinn Fein's victory in the elections would make its leader - Michelle O'Neill - head of the local government, in which the 1998 peace agreement stipulates that nationalists and unionists share power.
But the talks to form a new government seem complicated and portend complete political paralysis; as unionists refuse to participate in any new local government unless their Brexit demands are met.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson told the BBC: “The spectrum of the Northern Ireland Protocol is hurting our economy; it is hurting our political stability. I want a government in Northern Ireland, but it has to be a government with firm foundations.”
Under the Northern Ireland Protocol, trucks are allowed to hand over goods without examination or papers when crossing the border from Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland, in exchange for these checks being imposed in advance during the trucks traveling from Britain to Northern Ireland.
This is what the unionists consider to establish a border between them and the territory of the Kingdom and to weaken the status of the province within its British extension.
Next week, Britain intends to increase pressure on the European Union to accept broad amendments to the protocol relating to Northern Ireland in the post-Brexit stage.
In response to the events, the European Union called on the British government to be honest about the protocol, in reference to the lack of agreement to raise the ceiling of the amendments sought by Northern Ireland.
On the other hand, this protocol is in the interest of the nationalists of Sinn Fein and their project to unify the island, first by economically isolating the province from the kingdom and bringing it closer to the republic, and secondly by making it popular among their most prominent political opponents (the DUP), according to Associated Press report.
In turn, Michelle O'Neill addressed the party's supporters and the media by saying: “Today we enter a new era. It is a defining moment for our politics and our people,” noting that “the debate on the reunification of Ireland, a century after the annexation of Northern Ireland to British rule, was underway.”
As for the leader of the Sinn Fein party, Mary Lou McDonald, she appeared immediately after the announcement of the historic election results to confirm that the goal of uniting Ireland cannot be abandoned and will happen during the current decade.
She also set a 5-year time limit for holding the referendum on secession from the UK, knowing that it is subject to the discretion of the British government.
Observers believe that Ms. Lou McDonald does not want to repeat the chaos that occurred after the referendum to leave the EU, as her party will prepare well for the referendum during the next five years before moving to the stage of pressure on London to accept its organization as the final decision-maker, according to the Associated Press.
Given the sensitivity of the situation, and the difficult history that the region has gone through, especially between the nationalists who support the reunification of Ireland and the Unionists who want to remain part of the UK, the United States called on officials in Northern Ireland, on May 07, to share power and form a participatory government based on the provisions of the 1998 peace agreement, State Department spokesman Ned Price said.
Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon also said in a statement that “Sinn Fein's achievement in Northern Ireland shows that there are key questions to be raised about the UK's future as a political entity.”
In the latest reaction, the British Minister for Northern Ireland, Brandon Lewis, on May 09, called on all political parties in the province to form a partnership government in the capital, Belfast.
It is noteworthy that Sinn Fein and the DUP find common ground to form a government before the end of this year, and in the absence of this, new elections must be organized.
In turn, lawyer Bassam Tablieh told Al-Estiklal about the repercussions of the Sinn Fein party’s control of local elections in Northern Ireland, saying: “The nationalist Sinn Fein party’s control is a shift that could lead to political instability in the UK, as well as a strong message to the Conservatives party. Therefore, it will put a lot of pressure on them to make a lot of concessions and meet their demands.”
Commenting on the possibility of the UK heading towards disintegration, Mr. Tablieh stated that “it is still too early to say that the UK is heading towards disintegration, because the UK has its own policies of not giving up quickly unless there is strong and effective pressure.”
“Given the UK's maneuverability and policy, it will often reach an agreement at some point, but that will only happen when the pressure becomes too severe for it,” he added.
Britain and the EU tried for months to resolve the crisis related to the Northern Ireland Protocol, but to no avail, and this prompted Northern Ireland Prime Minister Paul Givan to resign last February.
With Givan's departure, his deputy, Michelle O'Neill, was also forced to resign under the terms of the 1998 peace agreement.
Regarding the failure to resolve the crisis related to the Northern Ireland Protocol, Mr. Tablieh explained that “the reasons for this are due to the lack of effective pressure from Northern Ireland, as well as its location and the losses that Northern Ireland would incur in the event of such secession. Thus, having really weighed the benefits and harms in this regard, Northern Ireland has maintained its policy of maintaining pressure for maximum gains.”
Crushing Defeat
The local elections in Britain, which usually do not receive a large turnout, revealed the damage done by the party scandal during the impeachment proceedings to the Conservative party led by Boris Johnson, in addition to the voters' positions critical of the Conservative’s management of the Corona pandemic, and considering their measures insufficient to help families stifled by inflation.
Johnson acknowledged that the results were controversial and that the situation was difficult for the Conservatives in some areas, but he spoke of gains in others, stressing his determination to stay in power to address the problems of the British.
With the legislative elections approaching in 2024, media reports indicate that it is not excluded that Conservative Party MPs will decide in the coming days to carry out their expected coup against Johnson and submit 54 letters of no confidence, which is the number required to vote for his removal.
Many Conservative candidates began to rebel in the run-up to their election campaigns, underestimating their party affiliation, presenting themselves as local conservatives, disavowing the Downing Street scandals, telling voters not to be punished for Westminster mistakes, and avoiding attaching Johnson to their posts.
The popularity of Boris Johnson, 57, who took office nearly three years ago, collapsed after the Party Gate scandal, for which he was fined and called for resignation.
So far, Johnson has weathered the storm by highlighting his huge role in Western support for Ukraine, but the disastrous vote results may change that.
In December 2021, the Guardian newspaper published a picture of Johnson and more than a dozen others drinking wine in the garden of his Downing Street home, alleging the photo was taken in May 2020, during a lockdown due to COVID-19, which prompted the Prime Minister to apologize for it in January 2022.
On his part, lawyer Bassam Tablieh said in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the results of the local elections in Britain clearly reflect the popular anger against the Conservative party, especially Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which led to the party suffering great losses.”
Commenting on the possibility that this election will be the beginning of the downfall of the Conservative party, which took power 12 years ago, Mr. Tablieh explained that “everyone knows that Johnson has many political mistakes, whether before his appointment to office or even during that; So there is resentment on the street with Johnson's policy, which is why Britons voted for other parties.”
“The most important reasons for this anger are Johnson’s violation of the legal rules he set and considering himself above the law, and the lack of proper management during and after the Corona crisis. We now notice that Johnson is trying to distract himself and get indirectly involved in the Ukrainian war, which means taking care of a lot of money that could have significant repercussions in the near future,” according to the lawyer.
“The Bank of England (BoE) had raised the interest rate by 1 percent, and there is inflation that has not reached the British economy since the fifties of the last century. Also, the inflation rate is expected to reach 10.25 percent in 2024, which is the highest rate the British economy has ever seen,” he added.
“Not to mention that the value of real estate will begin to decline, which will mean that many people will be unemployed, which portends the bankruptcy of many companies and people, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.8 percent to 5.5 percent,” he noted.
Mr. Tablieh concluded that “economic issues are of great concern to the British citizen. However, Boris Johnson proved his failure and inability to meet such demands and did not manage this crisis well.”
