From a U.S.-Backed Reformer to a Russian-Leaned Dictator: What is Mohammed Bin Salman Planning For?

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has transformed in the eyes of Western decision-making circles from a youth reformer and hope-bringer to a tyrant and dictator heading his way to Russia.

Madawi al-Rasheed, professor at the Middle East Institute of the London School of Economics, published an article in the Middle East Eye monitoring the change of attitudes of Western countries, and its policy makers' ignoring of MBS’s atrocities.

“The euphoria of some journalists who flew to Riyadh to meet and interview the rising prince is fading and giving way to a new image. After he was dubbed a great reformer, now he is better known as a villain and a dictator,” al-Rasheed wrote. 

“With more than half a dozen books written about him by well-known journalists, policymakers chose to ignore his most obvious characteristic—namely treachery,” she added.

 

Outspoken Dispute

The Saudi crown prince is not someone who thinks in terms of a balance between loss and gain. He is determined to gain at all costs, even at the expense of his overlords in Washington. 

His clothes would have been commended in the past for being informal and trendy, indicating his reformist goal and devotion to young culture. The same dress is now seen as a show of disdain and immaturity.

The assassination of Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi was a watershed moment in U.S.–Saudi ties.

MBS was identified as the senior official who ordered the murder of Khashoggi by a CIA study in 2018, but the U.S. and its western partners decided against placing sanctions on Saudi Arabia's future monarch, believing that interaction with the growing ruler would be preferable than isolation.

But now it is the Saudi crown prince who is the villain, an untrustworthy tyrant who refuses to honor the old deal in which the U.S. offered security in exchange for compliance.

MBS's error is to follow his own national interest, which is to restock the Saudi coffers with much-needed oil money and gain from the rise in energy prices, while simultaneously being vulnerable to global inflation because the country continues to rely on a wide variety of critical imported commodities, now at premium rates.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, MBS desired a casual tone for his first meeting with President Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, last September while wearing shorts at his beach estate.

After Mr. Sullivan brought up the 2018 murder of Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi, the 36-year-old crown prince yelled at him. The prince told Mr. Sullivan he never wanted to discuss the matter again, said people familiar with the exchange

“MBS’s main mistake is ignoring U.S. interests and refraining from openly condemning Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. If there is any world leader that MBS respects and cherishes to the extent of modeling himself in his image, it is the Russian president, after Donald Trump of course,” al-Rasheed wrote.

 

Trump’s Sponsorship

On 22 April, The Telegraph published a report titled Inside the 'Axis of Eagle': How Trump and the Saudis teamed up to tip golf into chaos.

According to the newspaper, Donald Trump's Doral course in Miami will host the grand $50 million finale of the Saudi rebel series, almost certainly ending any lingering chance of the Open Championship returning to Turnberry while it is owned by the former U.S. President.

The course was expected to take place between October 28th and 31st in Saudi Arabia itself, but Trump National Doral was chosen with the blessing of the 75-year-old owner, who may have admired Liv's decision to spend $3 billion in three years if that is what is needed to secure a foothold in these elite shrouds.

It will also take place at The Trump Stadium in Bedminster, The Third Leaf League, by the end of October, although this would harden the relationship and provoke controversy.

Insiders call the relationship "Axis of Eagle" in light of recent reports in the United States that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has awarded Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, $2 billion to invest in the private equity firm he founded with a capital of $2.5 billion.

 

Waiting for Trump

The Guardian published an article titled Saudis’ Biden snub suggests crown prince still banking on Trump’s return, saying That Saudi Arabia relies on Donald Trump's return to power by refusing to help the United States punish Russia for invading Ukraine, and by putting $2 billion into a new untested investment fund run by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

In seeking to persuade Riyadh to increase oil production to lower prices by up to 30%, thereby reducing Russian government revenues, the Biden administration is looking for ways to reassure the Saudi government that it is committed to the kingdom's security, the article explains.

The Pentagon is said to be working on a new draft statement of U.S.–Saudi security arrangements, but observers say it is likely not to meet the strong guarantees demanded by the Saudis and other Gulf states.

Prince MBS shows positions, betting on Trump's return to office in 2024, and the Trump administration's close relationship with Riyadh.

There have been calls for an investigation into the massive investment by the Saudi Public Investment Fund, controlled by Prince MBS, at Affinity Partners, a privately held property company set up by Jared Kushner months after he left the White House and served as a special adviser to Trump, his father-in-law.

Thus, the de facto ruler of the Kingdom ignored the warnings of the Advisory Committee of the Saudi Fund. Since it was concerned about Affinity’s inexperience: Kushner worked in real estate before taking office, and his track record of investment was widely considered poor.

The Committee expressed concern that the new company's due diligence on operations was "unsatisfactory in all respects" and that it was charging 'excessive' fees, according to a report in the New York Times.

According to the article, many observers believe that "MBS is unlikely to be affected by courtship or threats because high oil prices are boosting his budget while waiting for more flexible management."