This Is How Bin Salman Colludes With Putin in the Worsening of the Ukrainian Crisis

Muted tension in relations between the United States and the wealthy oil state, Saudi Arabia, and behind it the rest of the Gulf states. While the world was quick to condemn Russia's invasion of its neighbor Ukraine, the Gulf states remained largely silent, in addition to a Saudi rejection of Western appeals to pump more oil to reduce global fuel prices.

As pressure on Saudi Arabia failed to pump more oil, the United States and its allies were forced to release 60 million barrels of their strategic oil reserves to mitigate the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on fuel prices, according to the International Energy Agency's announcement on March 1, 2022.

Despite the new measures, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil rose on March 2, to $113, for the first time in 8 years, with the continuation of Russia's war on Ukraine and the refusal of OPEC+ to increase production.

On its part, the Financial Times explained in a report on February 28 that the reason for the Saudi silence following the Russian invasion of Ukraine lies in the fact that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman deals with the issue personally, in order to return the favor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was his first embrace after he became an international pariah as a result of his role in the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

In the same context, the American Intercept revealed in an article dealing with the increase in global oil prices on February 24, considering that there is Saudi–Russian complicity behind it, which has exacerbated the crisis in Ukraine and the continuation of the Russian incursion into its territory without being influenced by Western sanctions so far.

 

Useless Pressure

On February 27, 2022, AFP News Agency reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman assured French President Emmanuel Macron during a phone call that his country is committed to the agreement of the OPEC+ alliance on the quantities of oil production, which it leads alongside Russia.

The OPEC+ alliance, which includes 23 oil-exporting countries, is still sticking to its policy of rationing the increase in production in order to prevent the collapse of oil prices in an effort to achieve gains that compensate for its large losses during the Coronavirus pandemic, when the price of a barrel of oil collapsed below $30.

The sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia raise fears of the energy sector being affected and its prices rising. Since the beginning of the crisis, Riyadh, which is considered the central bank for energy in the world, has not shown any intention to increase production to calm prices.

According to CNN, US President Joe Biden sent two US officials to Saudi Arabia last month, who are responsible for the Middle East file in the National Security Council, Brett McGurk, and the State Department's envoy for energy affairs, Amos Hochstein, to pressure Saudi officials to pump more oil until the markets stabilize, but without result.

What exacerbates the pressure on the US administration are the expectations issued by the Vitol Group, one of the world's largest independent traders of energy, which confirms that oil prices may exceed $100 per barrel for a long period of time.

In addition, the American JP Morgan bank expected that if the Russian-Ukrainian war escalates, this would lead to Western sanctions on Russian oil, which represents 12% of global supply, and thus prices may rise to even reach $150 a barrel.

If the price of oil reaches $110 a barrel and stays for a long time, US inflation will exceed 10% year-on-year, something that hasn't happened in the US since 1981, according to RSM Consulting.

In turn, American expert Simon Henderson confirmed to THE HILL newspaper that “President Biden's announcement of taking a few sips from the reserve will not affect the reduction of oil prices,” indicating that the only country that can put pressure on Russia is Saudi Arabia.

Therefore, US Congressman Brad Sherman called on Riyadh to ally with opponents of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In a tweet on his Twitter account on February 26, Sherman said: “Saudi Arabia must open taps and produce more oil so the world can turn its back on Russian oil. Otherwise, the blood of Ukrainians is also on Saudi Arabia's hands.”

On the other hand, Dr. Yahya Sayed Omar, a researcher in political economy, explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the international reality of the energy sector is working in Moscow's favor, as a senior White House adviser alluded to when he said that the rise in oil and gas prices means that Russia will get the same returns, but with half the amount of production.

“That is why the West seeks to pressure Saudi Arabia to increase its production before applying any sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector,” he added.

“On the other hand, Western countries, especially the United States, do not want to increase dependence on their strategic oil reserves, meaning that Western countries want to reduce the price of oil and gas, but not at the expense of their strategic reserves, but at the expense of Saudi Arabia,” he said.

“Saudi Arabia is in its interest to increase oil prices to increase its revenues, especially in light of the economic pressures that the world is going through and that Saudi Arabia is directly affected by,” he pointed out.

Dr. Sayed Omar concluded by saying: “With regard to the West's reaction to the Saudi refusal, it seems that it will not be exaggerated, especially since many countries share Saudi Arabia's position, such as the United Arab Emirates.”

As Radwan Ziadeh, a researcher at the Arab Center Washington DC, asserted to Al-Estiklal that “the United States still needs Saudi Arabia in order to guarantee global energy prices.”

“Washington also still imports the equivalent of 7 percent of Gulf oil, but the Saudi contribution is the highest in Europe. Therefore it is important to ensure the stability of global energy prices before any sanctions are applied to the Russian oil and gas sector,” he added.

From Ziadeh's point of view, there is no Saudi alignment with Russia in the country, noting that there is also no automatic Saudi positioning on the side of the United States, as was the custom, as a Saudi response to America's recent abandonment of it in its war in Yemen.

Russia is one of the three largest producers in the world, along with Saudi Arabia and the United States, considers oil and gas its economic lifeline, and the platform through which it exercises influence in global events.

Russia also currently supplies Europe with more than 40% of its natural gas supplies, a large part of which passes through Ukraine, these exports are likely to be severely hampered by the war and damage to the energy infrastructure.

 

Saudi–Russian Complicity

In turn, The Intercept revealed in a report on February 24 that there is Saudi–Russian complicity to raise oil and gas prices, which is exacerbating the Ukrainian crisis.

It added that while Russia ordered its forces to enter Ukraine, gas prices jumped to their highest levels in more than seven years, stressing that the problem began during the Obama era.

While the media focuses on the conflict in Ukraine, a major reason for the high gas prices has been overlooked, as Moscow's partnership with Saudi Arabia has grown significantly in recent years; this gave the world's largest oil producers an unprecedented ability to be complicit in oil, according to the website's report.

The report added that the Kingdom's relationship with the United States deteriorated in the meantime.

As it emerged earlier this month, when President Joe Biden appealed to Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz on a call to increase oil production, that is a move that would not only help mitigate high inflation and gas prices, but might also reduce Russia's exorbitant profits during its aggression against Ukraine, but the Saudi king refused.

The Saudi–Russian relationship had emerged during the era of the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, who had his first official meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2005; bin Salman had sought to hold that meeting, after US President Barack Obama at the time refused to receive him, as The Intercept stated from two sources familiar with the issue.

In addition to the oil dollars, there is no doubt that there is a political desire on the part of Riyadh to reap political gains, the first is to punish Biden for his anti-bin Salman stance, and for hitting the Democratic Party in the midterm elections, by holding him responsible for high inflation and increasing fuel prices.

Bin Salman, who did not hesitate to meet the request of his ally, former US President Donald Trump, to increase production rates before the 2018 midterm elections, would not be as enthusiastic to acquiesce in Biden's request, or at least, he will do so on conditions, the most important of which is closing the Khashoggi file and restoring international acceptance of him as a potential king of Saudi Arabia, succeeding his father.

Salman al-Ansari, founder and president of the Saudi American Public Relations Committee (SAPRAC) indicated during a television interview with France 24 on February 26 that “President Biden accused Saudi Arabia last year of being responsible for climate change because of its oil production, but only a week after her accusation, he asked Riyadh to increase its oil production to reduce global energy prices.”

“Saudi Arabia, two years ago, during the Corona pandemic, implemented the shock strategy against Russia by increasing its production to the highest limit, to force Russia to comply with the two previous OPEC+ agreements, which forced Moscow to bow under pressure to Saudi demands,” al-Ansari also pointed out.

It is noteworthy that Riyadh has always used oil or its revenues as a weapon in response to American requests, since the signing of the famous secret agreement between Abdulaziz Al Saud and Franklin Roosevelt in 1945, which was based on protecting the country's security in exchange for American control of oil.

In the 1980s, Saudi Arabia contributed to keeping energy prices low, this is one of the reasons that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, which was mainly dependent on the export of gas and oil.

 

Putin and Bin Salman

The Financial Times newspaper said in a report published at the end of last January that “the strong handshakes between Russian President Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman showed the extent of their similar characteristics.”

The newspaper added in the report, in which it touched on the role that Putin plays in influencing some leaders in the region, noting that officials in both Saudi Arabia and Russia share an appetite for violence and human rights violations in their countries.

“The feeling of admiration that became mutual between Putin and bin Salman after his accusation in the Khashoggi murder case, especially since bin Salman had become an international pariah, but Putin made sure to welcome him among world leaders, and greeted him with a wide smile,” the newspaper pointed out.

“Putin is a model for a new generation of authoritarian leaders, while bin Salman is one of Putin's most admired leaders, and with his rise to power some British advisers have said that: Bin Salman is very infatuated with Putin and loves everything he does,” it said.

Whereas, in an article published by the American Wilson Center for Studies, it compared Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin, drawing similarities to tyranny and brutality in dominating smaller neighbors and facing similar challenges to imperial ambition.

“While Putin is achieving success in Ukraine, bin Salman has failed to establish Saudi hegemony over the Gulf states,” the institute reported.

“The state of play between Russia and Ukraine bears at least a striking similarity to that unfolding between Saudi Arabia,” the article states.

In either case, a major regional power is struggling to regain control of former vassal allies now bent on breaking away from their imperial grip.

According to the analysis, in the case of Russia, Vladimir Putin dreams of restoring some iteration of the former Soviet Union when Moscow ruled fifteen republics that are all now independent states, in name at least.

In Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, bin Salman wants to re-establish Saudi hegemony over the Gulf Cooperation Council, consisting of six Arab kingdoms; its other members are increasingly heading towards a crossroads.