Will a New Conflict Zone Ignite Between Kosovo and Serbia?

Tensions between Kosovo and Serbia are escalating further after Kosovo police closed the Merdare crossing, the largest border crossing with neighboring Serbia, in response to the Serb minority setting up roadblocks in the north of the country with which they paralyzed traffic, while political rhetoric between the two neighbors heated, using threatening language.

The situation escalated when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic ordered the army to be put on high alert following news that Kosovo forces planned to launch an attack against the Serb minority in the northern regions, in a dangerous sign of the worsening situation in the Balkan Peninsula.

These developments come against the backdrop of ongoing skirmishes between the Serb minority in northern Kosovo and police authorities, which erupted last July over license plates for cars, but worsened on the tenth of this month against the backdrop of the arrest of a former Serbian policeman involved in attacks against Kosovo Albanian police officers.

On December 11, Kosovo police announced shootings targeting their headquarters in the north of the country, where the Serb minority lives.

These incidents have become a declaration of renewed tensions in the region and with them the return of the bloody conflict that Kosovo witnessed 23 years ago.

At the same time, a number of members of Kosovo's Serb minority continued to mobilize their trucks on the main roads in order to block them in protest against Pristina's refusal to recognize Serbian identity cards and license plates.

 

Roots of Dispute

What is happening now in the Balkan in fact is an extension of the Cold War between the two countries following the end of the military war between them between 1998 and 1999, which resulted in the death of more than 10,000 and the displacement of nearly a million people.

The tension strengthened after Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, a step that was recognized by more than 100 countries, while Russia, China, and 5 European countries, including 4 members of NATO (Spain, Czechia, Slovakia, and Greece), did not recognize it.

The atmosphere of tension between Kosovo and Serbia has not stopped since the independence of the former in 2008, but soon the intervention was to contain any smoke before it ignited a fire, as the region is soft in security and cannot bear a new war that may be the nucleus of more comprehensive confrontations involving external parties, which portends a new world war.

However, the situation worsened significantly in December 2018 when the parliament approved the inauguration of a Ministry of Defense for Kosovo, a decision that was boycotted by most Serbian deputies in the assembly.

This pushed the level of tension to record levels by imposing duties on goods imported from Serbia, based on the principle of "reciprocity" where Belgrade imposes duties on Kosovo goods, when the Serbian, Aleksandar Vucic, accused Pristina of "beating the drums of war."

In the middle of this year, Kosovo authorities imposed on cars with Serbian registration plates the installation of other Kosovo plates, with a fee of 5 euros for each car coming from Belgrade into Serbian territory.

Since then, the border area between the two countries has entered a tunnel of chaos with daily Serb protests and confrontations with Kosovo security forces on one side and peacekeepers on the other, and these new laws have resulted in Serb officials and mayors resigning from their posts, along with some 600 Serb police.

The first phase of tensions between Kosovo and Serbia dates back to last August when the Kosovo government announced that Serbian identity documents and vehicle license plates were no longer valid in the country.

As a result, members of the Serb minority, demographically concentrated in those areas, mobilized a number of trucks and heavy machinery on the roads leading to the Jarinje and Brnjak border crossings with the aim of closing them to traffic in protest against the decision. Shots were fired at police, and cars were attacked by Kosovar civilians.

Members of this minority do not recognize Kosovo's independence and see the decision of the country's government as a humiliation and an attempt to erase their identity, which led to the withdrawal of Kosovo Serbs from all central and local institutions, and in late November an agreement was reached to end the conflict.

Its Prime Minister Albin Kurti blamed Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic for the escalating tensions, saying that "Vucic is the main culprit in the riots" taking place in the country, warning that "the hours of the coming days and weeks may be difficult and problematic," as "we face a Serbian national chauvinism that is well known to us."

On December 11, tensions resurfaced after Kosovar police were hit by three shootings and Kosovo Serbs again blocked roads. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced that Belgrade would formally ask the NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo (KFOR) to allow it to deploy its troops to protect Serbian citizens in Kosovo.

According to the Serbian Orthodox Church, the Kosovar government prevented Patriarch Porfiri from entering its territory, as he planned to participate in Christmas mass. This was seen by the Church as discriminatory against itself and Kosovo's Christian minority.

In the latest development on the ground, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced on Monday evening that the army had been put on high alert. Serbian Defense Minister Milos Vucevic said in a statement, "The President of Serbia has ordered the Serbian army to be at the highest level of combat readiness, that is, at the level of readiness to use armed force."

"The president ordered an increase in the number of military personnel deployed along the border from the current 1,500 to five thousand," Vucevic said. Serbia's interior ministry said, "all units" of the internal security forces "will be immediately placed under the command of the chief of the general staff."

 

Russian-Ukraine War

This escalating tension between the two neighbors has revived the atmosphere of the bloody war that took place two decades ago, coinciding with the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war that broke out last February, which the world is still paying for an hour after hour, amid concern and anticipation of a new confrontation driven by a package of factors. Will the crisis situation push for a new war in the Balkan Peninsula? Does Russia have a role in this fueling?

A number of Kosovar officials have linked the renewed tensions to the war in Ukraine since February. Russia is a traditional ally of Serbia, and the Russian attack on Kyiv was widely celebrated in the streets of Belgrade, where rallies in support of President Vladimir Putin chanted victory for "Mother Russia."

Serbian-Kosovo disputes are witnessing a double momentum, with fierce battles continuing in Ukraine, according to the Washington Post, for Putin's outspoken support for Serbia and his non-recognition of Kosovo's independence and for criticizing the West for "double standards" regarding their recognition of Pristina's independence and their rejection of Donbas's independence.

The Kremlin's rhetoric is well received by the Serbian street, especially by Serbian nationalist extremists, who have celebrated Russia's attack on Ukraine.

At a demonstration in Belgrade in March, organizers linked Ukraine to the Kosovo issue, calling for "a solution to the current situation in our holy land in Kosovo and Metohija."

Meanwhile, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti accuses his Serbian counterpart of helping Putin expand the scope of his war. In recent remarks, Kurti said: "Now that Russia is seriously wounded in Ukraine, they have an interest in transmitting and promoting the war in the Balkans, where they have an agent in Belgrade."

Belgrade considers such rhetoric "an attempt to exploit the Western dispute with Russia to settle side scores." While the official Serbian position on the war remains balanced, the Foreign Ministry adopted the condemnation of the Russian attack on Ukraine, and in return, refused to apply Western sanctions on Russia.