Why Do US Democrats Fear the Midterm Congressional Elections?

In light of the continuing decline in popular approval ratings in the opinion polls, the Democratic Party in the United States, led by President Joe Biden, has begun taking controversial steps to mitigate this collapse.

With the Midterm elections approaching on November 8, 2022, experts and opinion polling centers in America confirm that the Democrats are heading to lose their meager majority in one of the two houses of Congress -- the Senate and the House of Representatives -- or even both.

Meanwhile, Biden's approval rating fell in a record way to about 37.5% at the end of July 2022, according to the American FiveThirtyEight website, which collects various opinion polls.

In order to woo the voices of the undecided, and the center-right in particular, America's media and political circles accuse Democrats of hypocrisy and contradict themselves by adopting right-wing policies that they used to criticize in the past.

Such as the approval of the completion of the separation wall on the border with Mexico to stop irregular immigration and the support of some far-right Republicans to raise the fears of liberals and moderates to push them to vote for them.

 

Remarkable Collapse

The Democratic Party has spent the greater part of its final year reeling from crisis to crisis, including a failed withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising inflation, the Associated Press reported.

It added during a report on August 4, 2022, that these developments contributed to the decline in Biden's approval ratings, which has left the Democrats without a unified leader who can mobilize voters ahead of the upcoming November elections that will put their control of Congress at stake.

It noted that in recent history, the party that controls the White House almost always suffers heavy losses in the first midterm elections. The vast majority of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction amid inflation and other economic concerns.

Even with the momentum associated with several developments, such as the abortion law and its repercussions, the ratification of the Health and Climate Budget Support Law, and the assassination of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri (early August 2022), a number of Democratic strategists expect to lose a majority in the House of Representatives, according to the Agency.

Midterm elections are held in the United States in the middle of each presidential term, which lasts four years, during which voters renew part of the members of Congress, governors of some states, and local officials. It is a test of President Biden's policy and will shape his future in the White House.

Congress consists of the House and Senate, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate's 100 seats (35 seats) to be renewed by vote, and 36 of the 50 state governors.

With 220 seats, Democrats have a slim majority in the House of Representatives, just two more seats than the required majority, and with control of the Senate shared with the Republicans at a rate of 50 seats per party; but with a proportional vote of Kamala Harris as vice president.

Democrats are seeking, during the November elections, to consolidate their control of Congress, or at least retain the slim majority they have to not disrupt their legislative projects or disrupt Biden's agenda. While Republicans are seeking to regain control of Congress again after losing in 2020, in preparation for regaining the White House in 2024.

 

Forward Escape

Inflation reached its highest level in forty years in the United States, exceeding 9% on an annual basis, by the end of June 2022, according to the US Department of Labor.

Prices have been rising in the United States for a year and a half, undermining the purchasing power of Americans, according to what Bloomberg reported on July 29.

While Biden is accused by his opponents of pursuing an inflationary economic policy because of his stimulus plan for the revival that he revealed in March 2021, after his access to the White House.

The Federal Reserve is seeking to bring about a voluntary slowdown in consumption to ease pressure on prices by raising the main interest rate currently set between 2.25 and 2.50%.

This encourages commercial banks to offer more expensive loans to their individual and corporate clients, which has prompted several Republican lawmakers to accuse Biden of bringing the country into a recession, according to Bloomberg.

The agency explained that the data of the US Treasury Department confirms the contraction of the country's GDP over the last two quarters (from January to June).

On the other hand, Biden responded to these allegations by saying in a statement that "it was not surprising that we saw a slowdown in the economy after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, but he reassured that the country was on the right path."

Under its control of both houses of Congress, the Democratic Party is currently unable to arouse its popular base and influence the hesitant voices and some conservative currents through the pretext that the Republicans are passing their policy and obstructing the performance of the Biden administration.

Instead, the Democrats are engaging in several paths for which they have long criticized the Republicans, particularly the construction of the separation wall on the Mexican border, to stem the waves of immigration from Latin America.

On July 28, 2022, Biden authorized the completion of the construction of the Trump-funded US-Mexico border wall in southern Arizona, an area considered to be the busiest immigration corridor.

While the US Department of Homeland Security claimed in a statement that work to complete the project would provide better protection for immigrants who could put themselves in harm's way by slipping down a slope or drowning due to having to walk in a lower part of the Colorado River.

The completion of the wall was high on Trump's agenda, but Biden halted the construction process after taking office, promising a more humane immigration policy but finally allowing the gaps in it to be filled, according to the US Department.

 

Public Coup

Despite the claims of the Democratic Party and its emphasis on the need to implement free market rules, the Biden administration, despite the passage of nearly two years into his presidency, has not yet lifted the tariffs Trump imposed on China in 2018.

Although the abolition of customs duties on Chinese imports, estimated at $300 billion, will largely curb, according to the US Treasury, the exacerbating inflation, with the abundance of products in the market, Bloomberg asserted that Biden would not risk angering unions by reviewing the issue of tariffs, a critical source of support in the midterm elections.

Unions also oppose any such move, claiming that the fees help protect jobs in the industrial sector.

Rather, the agency pointed out that the White House is considering conducting a new investigation into the aspects of Chinese support and their damage to the American economy as a means of putting pressure on Beijing in trade.

In the context of campaigns to stem the bleeding of his popularity and the Democrats in general, Biden announced on August 2 the assassination of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike in the Afghan capital, Kabul, without any civilian casualties.

He warned in a graphic speech dominated by nationalism that stirred up conservative sentiments that his country will punish anyone who seeks to harm it and that it will remain vigilant and will do everything necessary to ensure the safety of Americans in the world.

In another move aimed at stoking patriotic feelings, the Democratic leader, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, made the first visit to Taiwan in nearly a quarter of a century, ignoring all the warnings of China, the world's second-largest economic power.

This visit came at a time when Washington is engaged in efforts to restore and unify the Western Front under its leadership, as well as reviving the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) against Russia after it brought it down in the mud of the war in Ukraine.

In all, these files directly affect the vision of conservative voters, and there is another dirty game played by Democrats in order to stop the collapse of their popularity.

Recently, American media reports revealed the Democratic Party's support for extremist Republican candidates at the expense of moderates in order to scare liberal and moderate voices into voting for the rival Democratic candidate.

NBC News revealed that Democrats support John James, the ultra-conservative candidate backed by Trump from Michigan, who opposes the police and describes the Democratic Party as Islamic.

In response to these accusations, Pelosi said at a press conference on July 29, defending the policy: "The political decisions that are being made enhance our victory in the elections. We believe that the current disparities between Democrats and Republicans force us to win."

 

Uphill Battle

In his reading of the scene, the researcher in international relations, Mr. Muhammad Abed, confirmed to Al-Estiklal that "these elections are very complicated for both the Democratic and Republican parties."

He explained that "for Democrats, they are facing the fallout from Biden's popularity, especially in light of historical inflation, high fuel prices, and public dissatisfaction with the performance of the Congress, which they control. The president's party usually loses in the US midterm elections."

He added: "As for the Republican Party, it suffers from a division over Trump's controversial role, and this appeared in the party committee exerting pressure on the former president not to announce his candidacy in the 2024 presidential elections, before the completion of the Midterm elections, for fear of leading the debate on the electoral propaganda agenda, rather than focusing the public on issues of inflation and the failure of the Biden administration."

Regarding the Democrats' ability to overcome this scene, Mr. Abed pointed out that "the Biden administration and the leadership of the Democratic Party are practicing different forms of hypocrisy. On the one hand, it plays on the basis of the right-wing agenda in some files, and on the other hand, it reinforces the presence of the far-right in the Republican Party."

"One example of this is funding the completion of parts of the Trump border wall with Mexico in Arizona, with the clear aim of attracting some right-wing votes in favor of Democratic candidates there," he said.

"It was also recently revealed that the Democratic Party granted funding to extremist campaigns, who are competing for the opportunity to represent the Republicans in the upcoming elections after we heard many lamentations about the danger of these people to US democracy and the future of the country," Mr. Abed explained.

The researcher in international relations pointed out that "the Democratic leadership does not see a problem in this practice, and their leader in the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, justified it frankly by saying that it is a strategy to show the ugliest of what the Republicans have."

He stressed that "these practices are successful, and this has been repeatedly proven in the history of American politics, but they were and will remain a reason to expand the circle of those who have lost hope in US democracy within the United States itself, whether from the left or the right."

On his expectations for the results of this competition, Mr. Abed saw that "the chances of Democrats are strong in the Senate, given that there are more Republicans who will not seek a new term in this session, as the senator already in the Senate is usually more able to win and stay in office."

"However, the calculations in the House of Representatives cannot be definitively predicted now. Although Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has drawn much attention to her character as a strong politician who deserves to stay in office, which requires Democrats to maintain a majority there," he added.