What Are the Repercussions of Thousands of Sudanese Refugees Fleeing to Neighboring Countries?

Sudan is facing the risk of a civil war, with the country potentially being divided into warring factions.

There are concerns of significant external interventions, which could lead to the conflict spilling over into neighboring African countries.

In response, Sudanese refugees are already fleeing the fighting and moving to Chad.

This migration has been described as similar to the “domino effect” that occurred in other countries experiencing conflict.

Observers see the displacement and evacuations as an indication of the fighting’s development and deterioration into a street and city war.

The conflict has also spread beyond Sudan, with major countries in the region fueling its ambitions.

Observers are closely monitoring the situation to assess the escalation of the conflict and its impact on the region.

Western reports confirm that what is happening in Sudan will not remain in Sudan, and that several neighboring countries, including Chad, are threatened with the conflict spilling over into them abroad.

Sudan is bordered by several countries, including Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, and South Sudan, which seceded in 2011 and took over 75% of Khartoum’s oil resources.

According to observers, the duration of conflict between warring factions tends to increase when major countries start evacuating their citizens from the affected country.

The evacuation of nationals and diplomats from Sudan is a sign that the violence and conflict between different groups are likely to persist for a prolonged period.

 

Reverse Drain

Throughout its history, Sudan has been a place of refuge for the residents of neighboring countries such as Ethiopia, Chad, and Uganda, when they are affected by wars. Currently, it is hosting 1.13 million refugees from African countries, according to the latest report from the United Nations Refugee Agency on April 21, 2023.

However, this time, reverse migration from Sudan has started. It is the first time that Sudanese nationals themselves are becoming refugees in neighboring countries, especially in Chad, where fierce battles are taking place near the border and in the Darfur region.

According to a statement by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, between 10,000 and 20,000 people have fled the conflict in the Darfur region and the ongoing battles in Sudan to neighboring Chad in search of a safe haven.

The agency stated that the majority of arrivals are women and children, and it is working with the Chadian government and its partners to assess their needs and provide water, food, shelter, healthcare, and child protection services.

However, official sources in Chad told Al Arabiya TV on April 21, 2023, that about 50,000 Sudanese have crossed the border towards villages and cities in the east of the country, and the numbers are continuously increasing.

The director of the World Food Programme in Chad, Pierre Honnorat, said the organization is ready to receive 100,000 people, and he expects further waves of Sudanese refugees.

The eastern regions of Chad currently host over 400,000 Sudanese refugees, and the influx of new arrivals places additional pressure on the country’s already depleted public services and resources, according to the UNHCR.

 

Possible Division

The Associated Press said on April 20, 2023, that most African countries surrounding Sudan are engulfed in internal conflicts, and various rebel groups are operating along the borders with Sudan.

“What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan,” said Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group.

He warned that “Chad and South Sudan look most immediately at risk of potential spillover. But the longer [the fighting] drags on the more likely it is we see major external intervention.”

Boswell also predicted a long-term civil war or the division of the Arab African state into warring enclaves.

Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert at Tufts University, wrote in a memo to colleagues this week that the conflict should be seen as “the first round of a civil war.”

“Unless it is swiftly ended, the conflict will become a multi-level game with regional and some international actors pursuing their interests, using money, arms supplies and possibly their own troops or proxies,” he wrote.

A report by the International Crisis Group on April 20, 2023, suggests that the army will prevail over the Rapid Support in Khartoum.

However, according to the group, a possible civil war that could destabilize neighboring countries, such as Chad, Central Africa, Libya, and South Sudan, might occur if the army secures the capital and Hemedti withdraws to Darfur.

It added that the conflict could quickly slide into a full-scale, years-long civil war, affecting the unstable states in Sudan and some neighboring countries.

Sudanese fear that hostile acts in the country could lead to a comprehensive civil war that will be devastating for Sudan.

The International Group advises regional players, especially neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Eritrea, to avoid supporting any warring parties in Sudan.

It warned that if any of these countries get involved in supporting one or the other, the risk of war spreading across borders will increase, especially as the conflict may directly involve ethnic groups whose territories extend along their borders with Sudan.

It urged them, especially the leaders of Arab countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, in contrast to the West and the United Nations, to try to persuade army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Hemedti to resolve their differences through dialogue.

Some international law experts and Sudanese activists have warned of the possibility of international intervention and the application of Article 7 of the United Nations on Sudan for three reasons: evacuating their citizens in case of a deteriorating situation, monitoring Russian intervention (Wagner mercenaries), and, most importantly, the fear of tribal support evolving into secret support from Central African and Niger countries (some reports have indicated crowds from Central Africa gathering to enter Sudan through Raja and Bahr el-Ghazal after Chad closed its borders).

There are several ethnic groups active between Sudan and Chad, including the Zaghawa tribe, from which the former Chadian President Idriss Deby’s ruling family descends, along with their followers who left Chad for Darfur in the early 1990s.

 

‘A Chunk of Sudan’

International reports indicate the pursuit of regional and international countries to exploit the conflict in order to gain strategic benefits.

The New York Times reported on April 22, 2023, that Russia was trying to secure access for its warships in Sudan while offering Wagner’s assistance in gold mining.

Officials were quoted as saying that the United Arab Emirates paid General Hemedti to assist them in fighting in Yemen. Egypt supported Burhan by sending soldiers and warplanes, because President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi prefers to see Sudan ruled by a formally trained officer like him; Sisi and Burhan both attended the same military college.

Former New York Times correspondent in Egypt and Kenya, Declan Walsh, quoted Western officials as saying that the risk of Egypt slipping into the conflict in Sudan is still present.

He explained that the UAE has been seeking Sudan’s gold and vast agricultural potential for some time to alleviate their concerns about food supplies, as well as seeking to control seaports in light of the recent intense Emirati influence and activity in Africa.

Walsh said the active and impulsive international movement in Sudan may seem surprising, but it reflects a reality that has been looming on the horizon long before the Burhan and Hemedti coup against each other.

This reality is that Sudan has been and may become after the civil war a juicy morsel for foreign powers.

“Everyone wanted a chunk of Sudan, and it couldn’t take all the meddling,” said Magdi el-Gizouli, a Sudanese analyst at the Rift Valley Institute, a research group.

“Too many competing interests and too many claims,” he added, “then the fragile balance imploded, as you can see now.”