Tribes, Tactics, and Tension: Egypt's New Political Frontier

Despite Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's creation of intelligence-linked parties after the 2013 coup, such as Nation's Future Party and Homeland Defenders Party, a new tribal party is now being prepared, sparking significant debate across the country.

Former Minister of Housing, Asim al-Jazzar, revealed on December 3, 2024, that a political party, stemming from the Union of Arab Tribes, is on the brink of formation, potentially making it the first armed political party in Egypt’s history.

The new party, shrouded in conflicting reports, is expected to serve as the "political arm" of the  Union of Arab Tribes, which has started to dominate political life, positioning itself as the "sponsor" of the regime’s business interests (el-Sisi and the military).

What is the story behind this new political party led by al-Arjani? Why is it being established under the umbrella of the Union of Arab Tribes, with former ministers from el-Sisi's government? Is it an extension of the ruling parties, from the Socialist Union to the National Democratic Party, Nation's Future Party, and now "United Egypt"?

Does its creation stem from the failure of intelligence-backed parties and the corruption of Nation's Future Party, or is it a bid for a new political front to polish the regime’s image and suggest to the outside world and international institutions pressing for change that there is democracy and new political movements?

Or is it a preparation for the upcoming parliamentary elections, seeking to consolidate the fragmented seats of the ruling parties into one, much like the dissolved National Democratic Party?

The Story of the Party

On the evening of December 3, 2024, preparations were underway at a major hotel in eastern Cairo to welcome high-profile guests, with heightened security measures in place.

Among the most prominent attendees were Ibrahim al-Arjani, a militia leader in Sinai and a businessman closely tied to el-Sisi’s regime.

Other political figures, largely drawn from the remnants of former Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s cabinet and the power structures of both Sisi and Mubarak, were also in attendance. These included former Housing Minister Asim al-Jazzar, former Agriculture Minister el-Sayed el-Quseir, former Social Solidarity Minister Nevine el-Kabbaj, and former Local Development Minister General Adel Labib.

Also present were Ali Abdel Aal, former Speaker of the Egyptian Parliament, and Sheikh Sayyid al-Idrisi, a prominent figure within the Sufi orders.

A number of pro-regime lawmakers from various political parties were also in attendance, including Ahmed Raslan, Magdy Morshed, Hisham Magdy, Margaret Azer, Atef Khalifeh, and Suleiman Wahdan.

The participation of these former regime ministers in the new political party has sparked derision among Egyptian politicians, who have pointed out the irony that prominent intellectuals and political figures languish in prisons, while a militia leader, accused of drug trafficking and kidnapping officers, is allowed to establish a political party.

Opposition politician Hisham Kassem sarcastically commented on the figures involved in the new party, saying that even in attempts to renew the system—whether through new appointments or the creation of the party—officials are turning to cadres “mostly from the regime’s reserves, and sometimes from the reserves of the Mubarak era.”

After the conference, a debate erupted over the new party. 

One camp denied that the tribal conference had announced the formation of a political party, while another insisted that discussions about establishing the party had taken place and that the intention was clear, though it had not been officially declared for organizational reasons, to complete its foundations.

Ahmed Raslan, a member of parliament and vice president of the Union of Arab Tribes, denied the formation of any political parties. 

However, former parliamentarian from the Free Egyptians party, Atef Makhalif, confirmed that the Union of Arab Tribes had decided to establish a new political party.

Makhalif told al-Manassa on December 4, 2024, that former Housing Minister Assem el Gazzar had hinted during his speech at the meeting organized by the Egyptian Tribal and Families Union about the "formation of a political party emerging from the union."

Makhalif stated that the agenda of the meeting, attended by Ibrahim al-Arjani, the honorary president of the Egyptian Tribal and Families Union, focused solely on remarks by former Housing Minister Assem el Gazzar, who hinted at the formation of a new political party without providing any details of the proposal.

He explained that work is currently underway to prepare the party’s executive regulations, write its program and objectives, and gather the necessary signatures to submit to the Political Parties Affairs Committee for official registration.

Makhalif further clarified that the party’s name has not yet been decided, though several suggestions are being considered, including “Union of Egypt” or “National Union of Egypt.”

He also confirmed that "several meetings have been held recently to discuss the creation of a political party through which the Union intends to participate in the upcoming 2025 parliamentary elections."

The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for November 2025, with Article 106 of the Constitution stipulating that the term of the House of Representatives is five years, starting from the first session of the current parliament on January 12, 2021.

Abdel-Sanad Yamama, the head of the Wafd Party, indirectly confirmed that the Union of Arab Tribes' conference was aimed at establishing a new political party. 

He also issued a decision to expel MP and his deputy, Suleiman Wahdan, for attending the Egyptian Tribal and Families Union conference.

In statements to the press on December 5, 2024, Yamama explained that Wahdan's expulsion was not due to his joining another party without formally leaving the Wafd Party but because he had also attempted to persuade “key members” of parliament, affiliated with Wafd, to join the new party.

As for the Egyptian Tribal and Families Union, it has not issued any statements about the new party. 

In its post-meeting statement, the Union only referred to holding a “major event” that brought together a select group of popular leaders and Union heads “to enhance national unity and reinforce societal values.”

Under Egyptian party law, founding a new party requires notifying the Political Parties Affairs Committee (a judicial body) and submitting signatures from 5,000 founding members across 10 governorates, with at least 300 members from each. 

A party is deemed approved 30 days after submitting the founding notification unless the Committee raises objections.

Political Arm

The discussion surrounding the launch of a new party for the regime, named "United Egypt for the Nation," was not a surprise in itself; what raised eyebrows, however, was the presence of Ibrahim al-Arjani, the regime's businessman in Sinai, alongside former ministers and officials from el-Sisi's government.

The mere hosting of the event by the Union, where the creation of a new political party was broached, signaled a new political role for al-Arjani—one that he may have been appointed to play.

In its explanation for the gathering, the Union stated that the purpose was “to position Egypt's tribes and families as a strong shield against the challenges facing the region, to support national stability in the current circumstances, and to back the political leadership.”

A senior party source told Al-Estiklal that the newly formed political party might become the "political arm" of the Union, following criticism from politicians and activists who warned that its political activities could violate the law and the constitution, as it is considered a tribal organization.

The source speculated that the resurgence of the Union, after nearly a year of inactivity, could be linked to an event held in October 2024 to commemorate the October War victories, which was attended by the head of the regime el-Sisi. 

This event could serve as a prelude to a larger political role for the Union.

The Union’s rebranding as the "Union of Arab Tribes and Egyptian Families" was seen as an attempt to circumvent criticisms that it was a "tribal entity" in violation of constitutional principles, and to address the military's concerns. 

The Union's spokesman, Mostafa Bakry, had previously described it as "a faction of the army," which drew further scrutiny from the military.

A party source clarified to Al-Estiklal that the move to establish a political wing for the Union of Arab Tribes is closely tied to the Union’s founding, positioning it as a popular support base for the head of the regime el-Sisi amid declining approval ratings. 

The establishment of a party for this Union would effectively resemble a pro-government party.

The source explained that discussions have been ongoing within political circles and with security officials regarding the failure of the so-called "intelligence-linked" parties—created following the 2013 coup—to play a genuine political role. 

These parties, it was noted, have largely been limited to distributing electoral bribes and profiting from petty businesses, such as selling meat and goods to the Egyptian public.

The source speculated that politicians and opportunists who have flocked to the "Mostaqbal Misr" (Future of Egypt) party would quickly align with the new al-Arjani party once it is officially launched, mirroring a pattern seen throughout Egypt’s modern political history.

Egyptian politicians believe that, amid the ongoing erosion of the regime’s popular base, head of the regime el-Sisi has sought a way to renew this support, distancing himself from the parties formed in the offices of security agencies, which compete for a larger share of the power pie alongside him.

In response, he has turned to establishing a non-partisan popular formation—the Union of Arab Tribes and Egyptian Families—claiming to represent all Egyptians. 

His ultimate aim, however, appears to be to transform this entity into an official political party to replace the disbanded National Democratic Party (the party of Sadat and Mubarak), which was dismantled after the 2011 revolution.

The 2020 parliamentary elections saw the "Mostaqbal Watan" (Future of the Nation) party emerge as the dominant force, winning 315 seats, compared to just 93 for independent candidates.

According to the General Authority for Information, there are currently 87 political parties in Egypt, including "Mostaqbal Watan," "Al-Sha’ab al-Jumhouri" (Republican People’s Party), "Al-Wafd," "Humat al-Watan" (Homeland Defenders Party), "Al-Masri al-Dimocrati al-Ijtima'i" (Democratic Social Egypt), "Iradet Geel" (Will of a Generation), "Al-Mu'tamar" (Conference Party), "Al-Tajammu" (The Socialist Party), and "Al-Adl" (Justice Party).

A parliamentary source confirmed to Asharq al-Awsat on December 4, 2024, that the newly formed party, "The National Union of Egypt," is likely to serve as the political arm of the Tribal Union. 

The source reiterated that "The Union, initially formed as a civil society organization, is keen to play a political role," and that preparations are underway to establish a new party to act as the political voice of the Union and participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

It is speculated that former Speaker of Parliament Ali Abdel-Aal and former Minister of Housing Asim al-Jazzar are the leading candidates to head the new party.

Asharq al-Awsat further reported that former Egyptian officials and prominent figures are considering the launch of a new political party, born from the Union of Arab Tribes and Egyptian Families, in preparation for the 2025 parliamentary elections. 

The goal is for this emerging party to become "the political voice of the Union," which is led by Sinai businessman Ibrahim al-Arjani.

According to Al-Quds al-Arabi, sources indicated that the Union of Arab Tribes aims to establish this party to head the "loyalist list" in the upcoming parliamentary elections, following the pattern set by the government-backed "In Love with Egypt" list in the 2015 elections and the "For Egypt" list led by the Nation's Future Party in 2020.

On December 4, 2024, the newspaper reported that the formation of a new party by the Union marks the end of the role played by the Nation's Future Party, which had led the loyalist factions in previous years.

The launch of the new party coincides with preparations for the upcoming parliamentary elections and is part of broader political and security efforts to create the appearance of a "change" in the political landscape as the 2025 parliamentary elections approach.

Opposition parties, such as the Egyptian Democratic Social Party, have confirmed that the authorities have promised them a forthcoming political breakthrough and a re-engineering of the political system, according to Arabi Post.

What is al-Arjani's Role?

Since Ibrahim al-Arjani's rise to prominence, marked by his presidential-like entourage in Sinai, the establishment of dozens of companies, and his involvement in both domestic and international deals, questions have swirled about his role and position, with no clear answers emerging amid an unusual level of ambiguity.

This uncertainty persisted during a recent conference, which was rumored to be convened to launch the Union’s new political party, or the "new National Party," as some Egyptian activists have referred to it.

However, a political source told al-Manassa that al-Arjani is set to be appointed honorary president of the party "in recognition of his national role."

Yet, the fact that the Tribal Union in Sinai, under al-Arjani’s leadership, is overseeing the creation of this new party has raised further questions. 

Why did al-Arjani organize the party’s formation event? Why is the party being launched under the umbrella of the Tribal Union? And is al-Arjani acting as the head of the regime Sisi’s "proxy" to establish this new political force?

Veto, a website funded by Egyptian businessmen, speculated that al-Arjani’s push to create a political party may be an attempt to avoid the pitfalls of founding the Union, which generated controversy for being perceived as a tribal organization that divides Egypt along tribal lines.

On December 4, 2024, it was clarified that the new party will operate within a legal framework, subject to the Party Affairs Committee and oversight by security agencies and the media—unlike the Union, which had been shrouded in ambiguity.

It is believed that behind the scenes, efforts are underway to gauge public reception of the new party, or to fill the vacuum left by the "men of former President Mubarak."

However, writer and opposition political activist Hisham Kassem, in an interview with journalist Mohamed Nasser, suggested that al-Arjani plays a far larger role. 

Kassem argued that al-Arjani is merely a front for a massive economic operation that primarily benefits others—namely the military and President Sisi—while he himself stands to gain little from it (timestamp: 10:12).

In a report published in May 2024, Le Monde described Ibrahim al-Arjani as the "man for dirty tasks" and a "former smuggler," recounting his rise as "Sisi's man in Sinai," according to its characterization of him.

Since the new party is seen as the political arm of the Union, Cairo University political science professor Mustapha Kamel al-Sayyid argued that its foundation, based on tribal lines, constitutes a direct violation of the constitution and the law governing the establishment of political parties, as well as a challenge to the concept of the modern state.

Speaking to al-Manassa, al-Sayyid pointed out that the law requires signatures for the formation of a political party to be collected from various governorates, ensuring geographical diversity within the party. 

In contrast, a party based on tribal affiliation does not reflect such diversity.

Article 74 of the Egyptian constitution explicitly states that "no political activity can be carried out, and no political parties can be formed based on religion, gender, origin, sect, or geographic location."

Article 4 of the Political Parties Law also stipulates that no party, nor its goals, programs, policies, activities, leadership, or membership, may be based on religion, class, sect, faction, geography, gender, language, faith, or ideology.

Additionally, Emad Gad, Deputy Director of the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies and former spokesman for the Free Patriotic Movement, criticized the formation of a political party for the Union.

Writing on Facebook, Gad argued that "the most prominent precursor to national fragmentation is the establishment of ethnic, religious, sectarian, or geographic entities. The danger escalates when political parties are formed on these bases."

Though not explicitly naming it, Gad alluded to the situation in Syria, stating "This is the case in neighboring countries that were once stable, centralized states. But under the weight of economic decline, extreme poverty, the deterioration of the middle class, corruption, dictatorship, and extremism, entities were created based on divisions, leading to conflict, civil war, and fragmentation."

He argued that "these tribal factors undermine the value of the unified nation," warning that this sets off a "snowball effect," with other groups seeking to form political parties that represent their interests. 

Such movements, Gad said, often lead to defensive or separatist desires, ultimately tearing apart centralized states.

He cautioned that Egypt's rich history is at risk of being "divided through the creation of fragmenting entities," adding, "Today, we have religious and sectarian parties, and the contours of a tribal-ethnic entity are beginning to take shape."

Political thinker Ammar Ali Hassan also criticized the new party of the Union Arab Tribes, stressing that "any political party imposed from above on the people cannot be relied upon."

He described the new party as "a distribution of political monopolies to trusted clientele, who are also beneficiaries."

Hassan further remarked that the figures who appeared at the party's formation meeting "are not true political faces, but mere shadows of a single figure, controlled by the executive power, which moves them at will, to the left or right, as it pleases."