The Impact of Blinken's Talks in Saudi Arabia: Oil, Iran's Nuclear Program, and Normalization with 'Israel'

The visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia carries great significance as it encompasses several sensitive regional matters, particularly normalization with “Israel,” ongoing pressure on Iran, oil price reduction, Chinese and Russian influence, and human rights concerns.

On June 6, 2023, Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia, where he met with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He also participated in the International Coalition Conference against the Islamic State, amid tensions in relations between Riyadh and Washington since Joe Biden assumed office.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is the second-highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Saudi Arabia in less than a month, following National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit on May 7, 2023.

After his victory, the U.S. intelligence released an assessment that concluded the Crown Prince authorized the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at his country’s consulate in Istanbul, a claim repeatedly denied by Saudi Arabia.

 

Critical Issues

During his three-day visit, Blinken stated from Saudi Arabia that diplomacy and pressure-based deterrence are the best means to confront Iran, emphasizing the importance of working with Saudi partners and Gulf states to enhance cooperation on various issues.

During a joint press conference with Faisal bin Farhan on June 8, 2023, in Riyadh, Blinken added that the bilateral relationship with Saudi Arabia goes beyond crises and encompasses cooperation in pursuit of common economic interests.

He further mentioned that the United States will continue to play a leading role in promoting and expanding normalization with “Tel Aviv,” stating that the U.S. supports “Israel” integration into the Middle East because it serves the region’s interests.

Blinken noted that he had the opportunity to discuss specific issues regarding American citizens detained in Saudi Arabia without delving into details. He affirmed that the United States would keep human rights on the agenda for joint discussions.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan highlighted the regional interest in normalization with “Israel” but emphasized the need for a resolution to the Palestinian issue to ensure substantial benefits.

Bin Farhan also pointed out that the kingdom has implemented numerous human rights reforms driven by the aspirations of the Saudi people. He confirmed the country’s readiness to engage in dialogue on the matter but emphasized that they do not respond to pressures.

The Saudi Minister stated that the kingdom prefers the United States to be one of the providers of its civil nuclear program. He further acknowledged that there are differences of opinion between the two countries but that they are working on mechanisms to cooperate.

Prior to Blinken’s visit, the U.S. State Department issued a statement reaffirming the United States’ commitment to sustaining the enduring strategic partnership between the two countries for over 80 years.

The department stated that the Secretary would discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues, as well as a range of bilateral issues, including economic and security cooperation.

Reuters reported on June 6, 2023, that Blinken’s visit comes days after Riyadh announced additional oil production cuts, a move that would increase tensions in already strained relations.

The report confirmed that the trip’s objectives include Washington regaining its influence with the kingdom regarding oil prices.

In July 2022, Biden’s visit to the kingdom did not alleviate tensions, as Riyadh sought to reaffirm its regional and international influence, taking steps such as reducing its oil production and strengthening relations with China and Russia.

 

Mutual Reassurance

Regarding the extent of achieving Blinken’s goals, the Iraqi researcher and academic Wael Abbas said: “Saudi Arabia’s destiny in the era of Mohammed bin Salman is normalization with Israel because the United States strongly pushes for that, and its foreign minister speaks openly about it. This is evidence that Riyadh is close to joining the ranks of those who normalize relations.”

The researcher interested in Gulf affairs explained to Al-Estiklal that “Saudi Arabia is copying the Emirati model, which combines contradictions in relations with countries. While it has normalized with Israel, it has ended its disputes with Iran, which is considered its archenemy, while maintaining its relationships with Washington, Beijing, and Moscow.”

As for the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Abbas added: “If the United States rejected it, it could have hindered the settlement. However, it gave the green light for Riyadh to complete the normalization between the two parties, even though its rival, China, sponsored the resumption of relations between them.”

On March 10, 2023, China sponsored the Saudi–Iran agreement to resume joint relations after a break between them in 2016 due to the burning of the Saudi embassy in Tehran after the execution of the Shiite Saudi cleric Nimr al-Nimr on terrorism charges.

The Iraqi researcher believes that Blinken’s visit will not impose conditions on Riyadh as much as it may set limits for Saudi Arabia in its relationship with Iran and push toward accelerating normalization with “Israel” to create a state of balance in the region and prevent Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from leaning toward the Iran–China–Russia axis.

On the other hand, the American analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, David Pollock, expected during an interview with the American channel Alhurra on June 7, 2023, that the visit would give priority to security issues, especially normalization and the Iranian nuclear file.

However, he does not expect major breakthroughs, and only both sides will seek to reassure each other and affirm that they are moving in the same direction in terms of not desiring to engage in a war with Iran and seeking a temporary freeze of its nuclear program.

According to Pollock, despite this Saudi–Chinese rapprochement, the relationship between Washington and Riyadh will remain important.

He ruled out Riyadh’s intention to change its strategic relationship with the United States and that it only wants to diversify its relations with international powers such as Russia, China, and Venezuela.

The Saudis want to show everyone, and themselves, that they do not rely entirely on the United States and that they have options. However, this does not mean distancing themselves from Washington or acting in a way that contradicts its interests. The relationship is important for both sides, according to Pollock.

Regarding normalization with “Israel,” he expected that Blinken would discuss the file with Saudi officials without ruling out a breakthrough happening soon.

Axios mentioned in a report published on May 17, 2023, that the Biden administration is trying to reach a normalization agreement by the end of the year, coinciding with the start of the U.S. presidential election season.

 

Enhancing Rapprochement

Similarly, Saud al-Rayes, Assistant Editor-in-Chief of the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, said that the visit carries many issues, especially the Iranian file and normalization with “Israel,” and it is clear that this is the slogan of the current phase for the United States in the region.”

Al-Rayes explained in an audio comment published by the Saudi newspaper on June 8, 2023, that the Iranian issue is dealt with by the United States in a three-dimensional manner: diplomacy, economic pressure, and deterrence, and this is what Blinken himself announced during his statements.

On the other hand, al-Rayes explains that the United States raises the slogan of regional security, but Saudi Arabia works on achieving this security.

“Here is the difference between the slogan and the actual action,” emphasizing: “But this visit is likely to enhance the Saudi–American rapprochement, especially after the previous phase.”

Regarding the position on normalization, he mentioned that “Saudi Arabia wants Israel to commit to the two-state solution that was agreed upon and announced in the past [in 2002].

“However, what we witness today is that normalization will not deter Israel from committing crimes in the occupied territories, desecrating holy sites, and the acts of killing that we have witnessed,” he said

“Therefore, we cannot talk about normalization in light of these circumstances, and Israel must present convincing evidence that it is truly part of the regional system, and not the killer, bloodshedder, occupier, and usurper.”

Al-Rayes pointed out that “if we talk about the existence of Iranian–Saudi rapprochement, the goal behind it is the security of the region, and if the United States is concerned about that, then what we witnessed during the previous phase of the Riyadh-Tehran agreement is moving in that direction.”

He concluded: “The United States may not be pleased that the agreement did not involve them directly, and this may expedite or delay their response. But in the final analysis, if they are truly concerned, they should support anything that promotes security and peace in the region.”