The Election Path Is Over: That’s How 'Israel' Will Determine the Next Palestinian President

Adham Hamed | 3 years ago

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Over recent years, the Palestinian street has been busy talking about who will succeed 86-year-old Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, especially as he ages and his health deteriorates, and his constant reluctance to go to Israeli hospitals.

This file has been constantly addressed by Hebrew media and is met with secrecy by the Palestinian Authority, amid moves to consolidate the influence of people whose names have become known.

Ramallah has been witnessing meetings, intensive and secret contacts for weeks to identify Abbas' successor, especially since few names have been put forward for the post and have come out in public, according to several local sources.

The debate revolves around Fatah leaders Majed Faraj, director of general intelligence, and Hussein al-Sheikh, minister of civil affairs, Palestine Today agency reported on February 23, 2022.

On February 2nd, the Central Council made changes to the PLO, most notably the appointment of Hussein al-Sheikh as secretary of the organization's executive committee, the most important decision-making position after the president.

Observers see the Sheikh's appointment to this important position in the PLO, which resulted in the Palestinian Authority, as a first step in shaping the post-Abbas era.

In recent months, leaks and news reports about the identity of the next president of the authority have increased.

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar said on January 20, 2022, citing a Fatah source, that after a long planning and preparation, Hussein al-Sheikh and Majed Faraj began their practical steps to inherit Mahmoud Abbas.

 

Tel Aviv Decision

It is estimated that the Israeli occupation plays a major role in selecting the next president, and that it prefers candidates over others in terms of their commitment to relations with it, the rejection of resistance and continued security coordination.

According to Maariv, the Israeli occupation likes to deal with Minister Hussein al-Sheikh, whom it described as a "boy" (servant).

"He has extensive experience and relationships with Israeli leaders, speaks fluent Hebrew, has good relations with senior officers in the Israeli army, and has extensive knowledge of Israel’s domestic political scene," it said.

Saeed Bisharat, an expert on Israeli affairs, said that the Israeli occupation is dealing with the issue of Abbas' succession sensitively, as the political and security establishment in Tel Aviv tends to succeed one of two.

They are Hussein al-Sheikh, a member of Fatah's central committee and a civil administration official, or Majed Faraj, a Fatah leader and intelligence official.

"Sheikh and Faraj are close to the occupation by virtue of their positions and are considered the most fortunate to assume the presidency, and they are able to continue security coordination with the West Bank administration security and force," he said to Al-Estiklal.

"Those who follow the Hebrew media note that the Israeli right is trying to convince the Zionist people of them, especially Hussein al-Sheikh."

Bisharat explained that there is another voice in the Israeli occupation calling for not taking over the leadership of the authority for Sheikh or Faraj and considering it a gamble, considering that they are popularly pariah, which will contribute to the escalation of the situation in the Palestinian street contrary to what the occupation wants.

"The current function of the Authority is to manage security matters, gather information about the resistance and implement security coordination, and over the past years the occupation has linked the lives of West Bank Palestinians to Israeli liaison offices, to control things there," he said.

He stressed that the occupation had a key role to play in identifying the next president of the Authority, as its financial sources and movement in the West Bank and abroad and all administrative matters were linked to the Israeli occupation's consent, a product of the Oslo Agreement (1993).

 

Possible Conflict

Nadav Shargai, an Israeli writer for the Israel Hayom newspaper, said on February 4th that the conflict over Abbas' succession is expected to result in conflicts within the authority.

Armed clashes may occur, especially since every high-ranking leader has followers and weapons available in the West Bank, the author said.

"The other candidates for Sheikh and Faraj are Mohammed Dahlan, Abbas' opponent, who in recent years has been pumping a lot of money into refugee camps in the West Bank to buy weapons," he said.

Marwan Barghouti, a prisoner sentenced to life in power and a popular leader in the street, and former preventive security chief Jibril Rajoub, are also added to the candidates for the presidency, he said.

Jacky Hugi, an Arab affairs analyst, warned on February 7th that the official levels of occupation would not rush to determine their candidate to lead the authority to succeed Abbas.

He noted that the Sheikh's positions made him an inappropriate figure to lead the Authority for the Palestinians.

Palestinian writer Iyad al-Qara said Israeli–American satisfaction is a key criterion in selecting Mahmoud Abbas's successor, as well as being an adopter of the security settlement and coordination project and rejecting any form of armed resistance.

"The next figure to lead the Authority will adopt the Israeli vision of the Palestinian cause in its entirety, as an entity with a relatively good economy of demilitarized sovereignty, supervised by local security institutions whose mission is to prevent any operations against the occupation," he added to Al-Estiklal.

Al-Qara stressed that the system of power is based entirely on the rule of one person, so that there is no censorship, no popular accountability and no need to measure the extent of street anger or satisfaction.

"As the crimes of occupation increase, the Palestinians are turning to more anger towards Israel, and the resistance is clearly growing, with increased security coordination and the authority's efforts to suppress it," he said.

This will eventually cause a strong clash between the Palestinian street and those who see them as security agents of the occupation and will not accept any figure who adopts the same approach, he estimated.

 

End of Elections

According to Palestinian law, the choice of president takes place through elections, which has been stalled for 13 years.

Abbas issued a decree in 2020 to hold elections scheduled for May 2021, but backed away from it in recent moments, by postponing it indefinitely, on the grounds that the occupation had not been authorized to hold elections in Jerusalem.

This was opposed by factions that asserted that the occupation could have been forced to hold elections in Jerusalem.

The decree postponing the elections was issued after opinion polls showed a strong popular rejection of Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas, as well as the fragmentation of its lists and defections within it.

The latest poll, carried out by the Palestinian Center for Political and Survey Research on December 15, 2021, showed that nearly 50 percent of Palestinians would boycott the elections in which Abbas is a party in it, while 65 percent of the voters participating would vote against him.

Israeli analyst Yoni Ben Menachem said February 23 that US President Joe Biden's administration will not press Abbas to hold elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to prevent the strengthening of the Islamic resistance movement Hamas.

For his part, Palestinian researcher Hilal Wael said that the choice of the president will not be by the people and will not be a Palestinian decision in the first place, because the authority is acting as an agent for the occupation in the West Bank territories.

The Authority is popularly pariah and draws its power and influence from the Israeli occupation and its international support and cover, he explained to Al-Estiklal.

He added that the cancellation of the recent Palestinian elections is a clear indication that the era of the ballot boxes is over and that positions of power will be inherited as Tel Aviv wishes, and Fatah knows that its very low popularity prevents it from entering the electoral entitlement.

The researcher stressed that the situation of popular boiling against Abbas and his authority will hinder the inheritance of power to any of his carbon copies, whether Sheikh or Faraj.

He also expects that the Palestinian street will rise up "which the leaders of Fatah or the occupation cannot impose or dictate to whom they rule and will be the supreme word of the will of the people".

"Over the last months, especially after the departure of the great movement condemning the killing of the authority by the opposition Nizar Banat on August 27, 2021, Israeli security support for the authority has increased with repressive tools and economic support," he said.

Israeli Army Minister Benny Gantz came out publicly to say that he would strengthen the authority's position, or the result would be an escalation of Hamas.

 

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