Potential War: How Relations Between the DRC and Rwanda Deteriorated

The March 23 Movement recently took control of the city of Goma in the Kivu region in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), in a major escalation rooted to the Rwandan genocide and amid efforts to control the mineral-rich eastern DRC.

In the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, angry crowds attacked a UN compound and several embassies, including Rwanda, France, the United States, Belgium and Uganda, expressing their anger at what they said was foreign interference.

With the escalation of accusations by the Congo against Rwanda of supporting the rebels to gain economic and political influence in eastern Congo, signs of a comprehensive regional conflict are looming, threatening African stability.

Amid these developments and the ongoing international and regional efforts to contain the crisis, scenarios vary between temporary calm or military escalation, up to the possibility of a full-scale war with disastrous repercussions for the entire region.

Attack and Protests

This week, Rwanda-backed M 23 rebels took control of Goma, the largest city in eastern Congo, in the biggest escalation of the conflict that has been ongoing for more than 12 years.

The clashes intensified when the rebels took control of Goma airport, after battles that resulted in the deaths of more than 100 people, including 17 UN peacekeepers.

At least 1,200 Congolese government forces surrendered and took refuge in a UN base, while dozens of soldiers headed to Rwanda.

Goma, a city of some one million people, already had around 700,000 internally displaced people living on its outskirts before the latest escalation. 

Following this, violent protests erupted in the capital, Kinshasa, during which angry protesters attacked several embassies, including France, Belgium and the United States, Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya, expressing anger at what they said was foreign interference.

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has not spoken since the crisis began, while his government recently said it wanted to avoid a massacre.

The fall of Goma reportedly underscores the failure of Tshisekedi, who pledged to bring peace and order to eastern Congo when he took office in 2019.

The mineral-rich eastern Congo has been plagued by internal and cross-border violence for three decades, with around six ceasefires declared but all of them broken.

The last attempt at peace talks, brokered by Angola, collapsed in December. Kinshasa describes the M23 rebels as enemies of the republic and has said it is only willing to negotiate with Rwanda, which backs them.

International Calls

Following the successive field developments, the African Union called for an immediate cessation of fighting in eastern Congo, and urged the warring parties to strictly adhere to the ceasefire they had previously agreed upon.

In the same context, the European Union called on the M23 rebels to halt their advance and withdraw immediately from North Kivu province.

During a Security Council session, Germany, the United States, France and Britain called on their nationals in the DRC to leave the city of Goma, the capital of the province.

The UN sounded the alarm about the possibility of a regional war, against the backdrop of renewed violence and fighting and the severing of diplomatic relations between Kinshasa and Kigali.

The UN and world powers fear that this conflict will develop into a wider war in the region similar to the one that broke out from 1996 to 1997 and from 1998 to 2003, which claimed the lives of millions, most of them due to hunger and disease.

Jens Laerke, spokesman for the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, said at a press conference that his colleagues in the city reported many bodies in the streets.

He said that hospitals in Goma were overwhelmed with the influx of wounded, electricity and water supplies were disrupted, and internet service was cut off.

Human Rights Watch said that the humanitarian situation in Goma is worsening and dangerous for civilians, stressing that there are significant humanitarian needs with the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians due to the escalation for weeks.

Raging Conflict

The Economist magazine recently published a report on the outcome of the conflict in eastern Congo after the M23 rebels took control of the city of Goma.

It described the latest development as a worrying sign that Rwanda, the sponsor of the M23 movement, may be preparing to use its power to redraw the map of the region, risking another catastrophic African war.

The Congolese government, UN officials and Western powers accuse Rwanda of fueling the conflict by deploying thousands of its troops and heavy weapons on Congolese soil to support the M23 rebels.

The accusations are based on a 2022 report by the UN Panel of Experts, which said it had strong evidence that Rwandan forces were fighting alongside the M23 rebels.

The roots of the events in Goma, however, go back decades. Between 1996 and 2003, Rwanda and other regional powers fought over the spoils left by the regime of President Mobutu Sese Seko, who ruled Congo from 1965 to 1997 and renamed it ‘Zaire’.

Rwanda and Uganda invaded Congo in 1996 and 1998, claiming they were defending themselves against local militia groups.

The M23 rebels claim to be defending the interests of the Tutsi in eastern Congo, namely the eradication of the remnants of ethnic Hutu militias who fled Rwanda after the 1994 genocide of more than 800,000 Tutsis.

But the magazine said Rwanda has long been accused of using proxies for other reasons, such as plundering Congo’s mineral wealth and drawing the region into its sphere of influence.

Rwanda’s most important proxy in the region is the M23 movement, which takes its name from a dying peace agreement signed on March 23, 2009, between the Congolese government and Tutsis, to whom Rwandan President Paul Kagame also belongs.

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured Goma in 2012 during its last major insurgency but withdrew after a few days following intense international pressure.

The rebels resurfaced in late 2022 after Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi tried to reshape regional alliances in ways that would have marginalized Rwanda.

Over the past three years, the M23 rebels have gained control of large swaths of eastern Congo, and the armed groups are competing for a foothold in eastern Congo and access to its mineral wealth.

Eastern Congo holds rare earth minerals for the global energy and transportation transition, and there is a conflict over the smuggling of minerals such as tin, tungsten, cobalt and diamonds, while gold and coltan are shipped across the border to Rwanda and Uganda and resold.

More than a year ago, the M23 rebels took control of the Rubaya coltan mines in Congo, a business that generates an estimated $800,000 a month, according to the UN. 

Coltan is used to make smartphones and other equipment. Analysts say the surge in Rwandan coltan exports in recent years has coincided with a regional expansion by the M23 rebels.

Most of Congo’s rare earth minerals, valued to be worth $24 trillion, remain untapped, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce last year, which called the country the world’s leading producer of cobalt, key to making batteries.

Neighboring Rwanda and Uganda have financial interests in Congolese mines containing metals and rare earth minerals to produce electronics, as well as China and the U.S.

Little of the region’s wealth has trickled down to Congolese citizens, with 60% out of its 100 million residents living below the poverty line. 

In turn, political analyst Ibrahim Khatib expected in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the current crisis between Rwanda and the DRC will head towards a temporary calm, under international and regional pressure, and to avoid any economic and military damage to the two countries.”

He also expected the resumption of dialogue through international mediation by powers such as South Africa, the UN, or the African Union, considering that the chances of its success are high if there is a real political will and a desire to contain the recent escalation.

Mr. Khatib pointed out that there is another possibility represented by the continuation of military escalation amid the possibility of a comprehensive African war, especially with the continued direct accusations between the two countries, the absence of successful diplomatic solutions, and the escalation of internal pressures on the two governments to adopt more stringent positions.