Political Targeting: How Marine Le Pen's Ambitions Suffered a Severe Blow

This week, a French court issued a harsh ruling against far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen.

Le Pen's allies in France and far-right leaders from European countries condemned her conviction, and her supporters described it as biased and undemocratic.

Eight other MEPs from the same party and 12 of their aides were also convicted in the same case, which centered on allegations of misusing more than €4 million in European Parliament funds to finance fake party-related positions.

While Le Pen's seat in the French parliament as MP for Pas-de-Calais will not be affected by the ruling, it is a major blow to her political future, especially since prosecutors have also banned her from holding any public office for five years, dashing her hopes of leading her party into the next French presidential race in 2027.

The ruling has the potential to reshape French politics, with Le Pen having spent decades turning her far-right vehicle into a mainstream and popular political force and herself into the favorite to win the country's next presidential elections.

The ruling against Le Pen has divided the French political class. While politicians from both the right and left condemned the court's decision, the Socialists called for respect for the law.

French President Emmanuel Macron and the minority center-right government have yet to issue any official response. A source reported that Prime Minister Francois Bayrou informed his allies of his displeasure with the ruling.

Catastrophic Setback

On March 31, a Paris court convicted far-right leader Marine Le Pen, 56, of embezzling European Union funds.

She was also sentenced to four years in prison, two of which were suspended, and banned from holding public office for five years with immediate effect, not just after exhausting appeals before the Supreme Court.

According to Reuters, the latest ruling is a catastrophic setback for Le Pen, the longtime far-right leader who polls show is the leading candidate if she runs for president in 2027.

Le Pen has already run for president three times and previously said that 2027 would be her last presidential bid.

The court also fined Le Pen €100,000, and fined the party €2 million — €1 million of which was suspended.

Le Pen told her party lawmakers that “the regime had produced the nuclear bomb, and if it used such a powerful weapon against us, it was because we were about to win the election.”

She described the ruling as political, a violation of the rule of law, and aimed to keep her out of the race for France's top job.

While Le Pen can still appeal the court's decision, French legal experts believe her chances of being acquitted in time to run in the elections are slim, according to Bloomberg.

The Paris Court of Appeals announced that it has received three appeals against the ruling issued on March 31 by the Paris judicial court on the case involving the RN leader and others, including former deputies and aides. 

In an unexpected statement, the court announced that it could reach a ruling by the summer of 2026. Should the first-instance ruling be overturned, or should the penalty of ineligibility be dropped, Le Pen could run again for the Elysee.

This would mean that the decision would come months before the next presidential election, in which Le Pen intends to run for a fourth time, having failed to win three previous presidential elections.

Political Debates

Since the verdict was read, reactions have multiplied, with the most vehement condemnations coming from Le Pen's allies in the far-right.

In turn, RN leader Jordan Bardella called on the French to demonstrate early next week to protest Le Pen's sentence.

He also denounced the dictatorship of the judges, adding that “Le Pen was being unjustly convicted and that French democracy had been subjected to an execution.”

Bardella could become the RN's de facto candidate in the 2027 elections, but Le Pen made it clear that she was not yet ready to hand over the reins to him.

Le Pen recently affirmed that she would never withdraw from political life and that she was not prepared for such a facile renunciation of democracy, while Bardella declared his support for her.

For his part, Eric Ciotti, leader of the Union of the Right for the Republic, denounced what he described as a shameful judicial conspiracy seeking to confiscate the country's democratic destiny.

In a post on X, Le Pen's ally expressed his anger, saying, “Is France still a democracy?” 

“It's a system of power grabs that excludes any viable right-wing candidate, from Francois Fillon to Marine Le Pen,” he added.

Marion Marechal, Le Pen’s niece and a Member of the European Parliament for a rival far-right party, said her aunt had led our side on the path to victory. “This is her only guilt, and that is why she is condemned,” she added.

However, the ruling against Le Pen created confusion within other political parties. 

Laurent Wauquiez, president of the Republican party, argued that it placed a heavy burden on French democracy, and that political debates should be decided at the ballot box, not by the judiciary.

“Our party has never resorted to the courts to get rid of the National Rally. We are fighting it at the ballot box and in the streets, and we will defeat it tomorrow, regardless of its candidate,” said the hard-left France Unbowed (La France Insoumise).

For her part, Marine Tondelier, the head of France's Green Party, said, “Le Pen must serve her sentence because she is subject to the law like everyone else.”

Green MP Clémentine Autain considered that “embezzling millions for the benefit of a party is reprehensible, morally unacceptable, and punishable by law. It is a cause for disgust with politics.”

Another Green MP, Cyrielle Chatelain, said, “The law is the same for everyone, and there is no excuse for stealing the money of the French people.”

Democratic Violation

The French court's ruling against Le Pen is no longer a purely domestic issue. Its repercussions have begun to strongly impact political and popular circles, raising many questions about France's political image after Le Pen's exit.

It is also not a trivial matter that US President Donald Trump is concerned about Le Pen's conviction. 

He told a group of reporters at the White House, “She has been banned from running for five years, and she is the favorite. This is very similar to our country,” considering this issue extremely important.

White House spokeswoman Tani Bruce said, “Excluding people from the political process is particularly troubling... We support everyone's right to express their views in the public sphere.”

Elon Musk also weighed in on the French court decision, posting on X: “When the radical left can't win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents.”

Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro alleged on X that “the French left were using judicial activism to win elections without a real opposition.”

Across Europe, far-right leaders said the ruling showed democratic backsliding.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed her dismay at the temporary ban that prevents the French far-right icon from running for public office.

“I did not know the circumstances of the charges against Le Pen, nor the reasons for such a harsh decision,” she said,

“But I don't think anyone who appreciates democracy would be happy with a ruling that affects the leader of a major party and deprives millions of citizens of their representation,” she added.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán posted on X saying “I am Marine!”

Dutch far-right leader politician Geert Wilders expressed his shock at the ruling, which he described as extremely harsh.

He emphasized his conviction that Le Pen will win her appeal and become the next president of the French Republic.

For his part, Matteo Salvini, Italian Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the far-right League party, said the ruling was a declaration of war from Brussels and a bad movie similar to what we recently saw in Romania.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a media conference Monday that European capitals show that they are not at all reluctant to go beyond democracy during the political process.