Political Reaction: What Is the Possible Fate of Syrians in Europe?

After the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime, Syrian refugees in Europe found themselves facing different government decisions that deepened the state of uncertainty they are living in.

In a quick and unjustified move, at least for the time being, a number of European countries announced the suspension of asylum applications for Syrians, while others announced their readiness to deport Syrian refugees to their country, despite the ambiguity of the situation inside Syria.

While Austria suspended all asylum applications and announced plans to return individuals to Syria, the rest of the European countries, such as Germany, the UK, France and Sweden, temporarily suspended the examination of asylum applications submitted by Syrians.

This shift brings back to the fore the debate about the support that the Assad regime previously received from far-right parties in Europe, which portrayed it as a force for stability in the region, a barrier to Islamic extremism, and a protector of minorities.

Between those granted permanent political asylum, humanitarian refugees with temporary residency, and asylum seekers whose files are pending, the fates of Syrians in Europe vary as they await developments in the political scene in their country.

EU leaders are due to meet on December 19 to discuss asylum and migration as well as the latest developments in Syria.

New European Tendency 

Recently, several European countries have expressed their readiness to enhance their involvement in Syria and cooperate with the armed Syrian opposition that took power in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.

In this regard, sources revealed an American-European tendency towards removing the name of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorist lists, as it was a key player in overthrowing the Assad regime, and a pivotal part in the equation of post-Assad Syria.

In a joint statement on December 9, Germany and France welcomed the end of Bashar al-Assad's rule, which, according to them, caused horrific suffering to the Syrian people and inflicted great damage on the country.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Emmanuel Macron declared their readiness to cooperate with the Syrian armed opposition forces and the government that emerged from them, in accordance with their commitment to basic human rights and the protection of minorities of different religions and ethnicities.

The French and German position paves the way for the rest of the EU countries, and will later facilitate the lifting of the many economic sanctions imposed on Syria during al-Assad’s rule.

Scholz and Macron’s statement confirmed that they agreed to cooperate to strengthen the EU’s engagement in Syria, including supporting a comprehensive political process.

Western tendencies to cooperate with the new government cannot be separated from the issue of Syrian refugees that has been troubling Europe.

With the arrival of the Syrian armed opposition to power in Syria, many of the concerns that are raised when talking about returning refugees have largely subsided, such as fears of their being subjected to revenge by the Assad regime.

Shortly after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad , European countries, including Germany, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Norway, Sweden and the UK, announced that they would review their asylum practices in light of these developments.

More than a million Syrians have sought asylum in Europe in the past 13 years. But al-Assad’s fall raises questions about the future of about 100,000 refugees.

Germany has confirmed that the assessment of asylum applications submitted by Syrians residing in Germany will depend on developments in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, as stated by Interior Minister Nancy Faeser.

The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees in Germany (BAMF) stated that the decision to suspend asylum applications came as a result of the lack of clarity on the political situation in Syria.

It revealed that the applications affected by the decision amount to 47,270 applications, but it only includes new applications, as those who have already been granted asylum will not be affected.

Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner has instructed his administration to prepare repatriation and deportation programs to Syria.

In turn, Jimmie Akesson, leader of the far-right Sweden Democrats, which is part of the government coalition, called for a review of the residence permits granted to refugees who came from Syria.

Anti-Refugee Politics

In the same context, several human rights organizations denounced the measures of European governments that rushed to make hasty decisions that sacrifice the security of Syrians abroad, in light of the vague and unstable situation that Syria is still experiencing.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) called for patience and vigilance regarding the issue of the return of Syrian refugees to their country after the fall of the regime.

The UN refugee agency's chief Filippo Grandi said in a statement that “UNHCR's advice is to remain focused on the issue of returns, hoping that developments on the ground will evolve in a positive manner, allowing voluntary, safe and sustainable returns to finally occur.”

“With shattered infrastructure and over 90% of the population relying on humanitarian aid, urgent assistance is required as winter approaches,” said Grandi, calling on donors to continue supporting aid deliveries.

The UN special envoy to Syria has warned European countries should not rush to repatriate the millions of refugees who fled the conflict.

“There are still livelihood challenges. The humanitarian situation is disastrous. The economy has collapsed,” the envoy, Geir Pedersen, told a news conference.

On his part, European Commissioner for Home Affairs, Migration and Asylum Magnus Brunner said that the forced return of Syrians to their homeland is not possible at the present time, in response to countries that said they were planning to do so, Austria in particular.

“At this time of turbulence and change, countries should avoid plunging Syrian refugees and people seeking asylum into situations of further uncertainty and precarity,” said Eve Geddie, director of Amnesty International’s European institutions office.

“Instead, the safety and agency of people seeking asylum must be placed at the heart of decision-making and not sacrificed to the rabid, anti-refugee politics currently gripping Europe,” she added.

Political Exploitation

The Financial Times reported that many politicians in Europe believe that the time has come for more than a million Syrian refugees on the old continent to return to their homeland, while Syrians say the matter is more complicated than that.

Syrians who fled the 13-year-old war do not believe that now is the right time to return, given the uncertainty surrounding the political scene due to the fall of the Assad regime, and the damage to infrastructure and homes, as many parts of the country are no longer habitable.

Although Syrian refugees in Europe are happy about the end of the Assad family's rule, which lasted more than fifty years, they see returning now as a grave mistake.

Many of them also expressed concern about the dominance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the most powerful armed opposition group that led the offensive against the Assad regime, over the reins of power in the country.

With the German snap elections approaching next February, a recent poll conducted by the Infratest Foundation showed that immigration is the second biggest challenge facing the country, which has strengthened the rise of far-right and conservative parties.

It is worth noting that more than 800,000 Syrians live in Germany, the majority of whom came as refugees after former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s historic decision in 2015 to allow one million asylum seekers to enter the country.

Politicians from the Christian Democratic Union and the far-right Alternative for Germany party recently stated that it is time for Syrians to start thinking about returning to their homes.

On his part, former health minister Jens Spahn said that Scholz's government should start operating return flights to Syria and offer those who agree to leave 1,000 euros in cash as a first step.

Michael Roth, chairman of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee from Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, warned against populist rhetoric and premature discussions about the return of Syrians.

“There is a fear that the Christian Democrat Union will use this to win votes in the next elections, similar to the far-right AfD,” he told Der Spiegel.

According to the Financial Times, years of war have devastated Syria and left it bankrupt, and it is unclear how armed opposition groups will build governance structures in the country.

Frankfurt-based Pro Asyl urged European leaders to show solidarity with refugees instead of politicising their plight.

Thomas Oberhauser, chair of the German Bar Association's committee on migration law, warned that the government must first ensure that Syria is a safe country that protects the rights of ethnic and religious groups, noting that it is not the right time to discuss their return to their country.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has already warned of negative consequences for the German labor market, especially in the health sector, if Syrian refugees return to their country.

Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said that some 6,000 Syrian doctors were working in Germany, noting that their departure would have a significant impact on the healthcare system.

On his part, lawyer Zaid al-Azem explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “most Syrians in Europe express great concerns about the cancellation of their residence permits or their possible deportation.”

“Many Syrian refugees and asylum seekers consider that the issue of security chaos, reconstruction, the spread of weapons, and the ongoing conflict in some areas of the country are still hindering their return,” he said.

Mr. al-Azem stressed that “European countries are required to find a good and rational balance on this issue to avoid falling into forced return procedures and the violation of the right to asylum.”